I wonder how much 'cold ground' can impact any cold spell?

If the earth is still packed with heat then that first snowfall might not stick around due to bottom up melt?

That then impacts albedo so the first sun gets soaked up instead of over 90% of it being reflected back into space?

Then we have the impact of 'lying snow' on temps and that cold dense ,air at resisting warming or even promoting higher pressure (colder air more dense and so more pressure than warmer , lighter air?) and so clearer skies and more heat loss.

Our 'keeping mild over late Autumn /early winter' might make it ever harder to see hard cold/heavy snow like we saw in 09/10 and the 'early ground chill' we got then?

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I Find model output usually very accurate down here, even out in FI range: it never shows snow and we never get any

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There have been some pretty frustrating  times over the years in winter time TWO but this winter has got to have been up there  with the   best of them !

IMBY we start off  with a good MO forecast of a pattern change in mid Jan, we have a SSW event thrown in and the charts looked stellar with the prospect this very week of a decent easterly and a very good chance of disruptive snow.  and tons more to look forward to during  Feb.  One of the  most solidly fab  MO forecasts I can remember

That was swiped off the agenda at short notice, but never mind, we had potent north westerly to look forward  to  and  snow on fronts as they  occluded and pushed south.... but naa

Now the models are swinging round  to  a few chilly days, and then milder, then a few more chilly days - with the possibility of cold rain before  the Atlantic reasserts its self with the hateful cold zonality - which  invariably gives the square root of  FA in this neck of the woods

Frankly I'd rather have Uncle  Barty setting up   house and  some nice dry, mild weather.  At least I could save on the heating bills

 

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3 days ago I gave my old land rover a brush down and gave a it a bit of a warm up ready for any snow this week and near future, maybe that has put the mockers on things because since then things have changed a bit, so if we don't get what has been showing you can blame me.

 

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Brian when can we start a 'Winter is over!' type thread?

There has been so much hope and little or no potential, false hopes, model wobbles, downgrades, easterlies than have never materilised, northerlies that look less and less potent, ensemble members that keep trending milder etc...!? We have the Met Office that go for cold and this never arrives, same for the BBC and many other forecast only to be let down time and time again! What can I say! This has to be the worse winter I have ever had the misfortune to experience - We had the SSW, SPLIT the PV, reversed Zonal winds at both 10 and 30hpa!? We are at Solar minimum!! Yet still can;t manage a decent frost even and or get a cold day! What a farce! Ok maybe it's still January but we are over half way through now ..!?

I knew the weather would punish us due to Brexit - interesting how so many other parts of Europe have had the cold and snow except us!? So this is what the weather does to us when we vote Leave! I knew it!!

Surely, we can't go on and on like this?

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Brian when can we start a 'Winter is over!' type thread?

There has been so much hope and little or no potential, false hopes, model wobbles, downgrades, easterlies than have never materilised, northerlies that look less and less potent, ensemble members that keep trending milder etc...!? We have the Met Office that go for cold and this never arrives, same for the BBC and many other forecast only to be let down time and time again! What can I say! This has to be the worse winter I have ever had the misfortune to experience - We had the SSW, SPLIT the PV, reversed Zonal winds at both 10 and 30hpa!? We are at Solar minimum!! Yet still can;t manage a decent frost even and or get a cold day! What a farce! Ok maybe it's still January but we are over half way through now ..!?

I knew the weather would punish us due to Brexit - interesting how so many other parts of Europe have had the cold and snow except us!? So this is what the weather does to us when we vote Leave! I knew it!!

Surely, we can't go on and on like this?

In this part of the world, this-called "winter" has been a complete non-event which means that it has never really started in the first place.

A more appropriate subject for such as thread would therefore be "will we actually get any sort of winter this year and if so, when will it actually start?"

You are of course, free to start such a thread yourself if you wish though.

 

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HAHA you looked it up to prove me wrong! I couldn't see any frost last night or this morning here in Exeter it dropped to 1.8c - certainly no frost just foggy! OMG 1.8c in January!! Get the gritters out 

They like to spend their grit budget and give the men a nice overtime bonus I find.

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Feel a bit hard done by here. The trough broke up and reformed to the east of here. Even Hull has some snow.

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This used to be known as Britain's snowiest city now we never get anything worth having. Synoptics that would have guaranteed a good snowfall now deliver nothing at all or next to nothing and this has been the case for the last six years

What we have at the moment would not have been bone dry in the past. NW'lies used to guarantee plenty of shower activity and N'lies even more so but time after time it's just this mind numbing bone dry crap. The same with E'lies. The so-called Beast from the East was a complete disaster here due to inexplicable lack of precipitation.

Don't know why the synoptic set-ups that delivered snow in the past are now tediously dry and boring but what I do know is I am utterly sick to death of winter being a write-off year after year 

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Feel a bit hard done by here. The trough broke up and reformed to the east of here. Even Hull has some snow.

Hard done by here too!  Temp was 5c but started to fall, then it started to rain.  Temp fell quite quickly and after an hour the rain turned to snow - about six flakes - and the sky immediately cleared.  It’s now below freezing and still clear!  

The radar shows the precip band is pivoting back to North and I’m bang under the clear bit in the middle!  So there’s snow to the North, South, East and west, but none in Nottinghamshire!  

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Been dry here today, we were never going to get snow with this setup and a flow from the WNW. Not to worry I’m sure our time will come soon and we saw a little a few days ago here.

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Been dry here today, we were never going to get snow with this setup and a flow from the WNW. Not to worry I’m sure our time will come soon and we saw a little a few days ago here.

I realise that the BFTE last year delivered more snow to Central belt but we had about 4-5 inches here.  Was it so terrible in the city?

 

I realise that the BFTE last year delivered more snow to Central belt but we had about 4-5 inches here.  Was it so terrible in the city?

It was genuinely totally forgettable with some but generally very little snow in the city.

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It was genuinely totally forgettable with some but generally very little snow in the city.

I got 2 snow days from it!  Mainly due to the drifting off the fields.  From memory it was just bad luck that Aberdeen didn't get so much snow.  Trains of precip just in the wrong place.  We're long overdue a proper northerly though.

 

I got 2 snow days from it!  Mainly due to the drifting off the fields.  From memory it was just bad luck that Aberdeen didn't get so much snow.  Trains of precip just in the wrong place.  We're long overdue a proper northerly though.

Agreed to all of that. The snow was frustratingly close.

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This used to be known as Britain's snowiest city now we never get anything worth having. Synoptics that would have guaranteed a good snowfall now deliver nothing at all or next to nothing and this has been the case for the last six years

What we have at the moment would not have been bone dry in the past. NW'lies used to guarantee plenty of shower activity and N'lies even more so but time after time it's just this mind numbing bone dry crap. The same with E'lies. The so-called Beast from the East was a complete disaster here due to inexplicable lack of precipitation.

Don't know why the synoptic set-ups that delivered snow in the past are now tediously dry and boring but what I do know is I am utterly sick to death of winter being a write-off year after year 

 

Did Aberdeen not get any snow today Rich? Doc? Was it dry all day? - Least you have Sunday to look forward to and the potential for snow showers to move in off north sea as LP sinks south!? - IF current 'set up' materialised! 

This is the reason I am very frustrated notice Exeter on this latest rainfall radar and where the wintry showers' are?! 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

All heading to the west of Exeter to Dartmoor and mid Devon and into south Devon - like a streamer!

Been a disaster today for wintry showers in Exeter - With Hazy sun the precipitation has either been too light for evaporative cooling so it's been too mild. But now it's turned colder but not cold enough for a frost yet now you can see where all the wintry weather action is on the rainfall radar map? 

 

 

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No, it has been dry as forecast and expected.

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I must have the "proper" snow shield around me this time 

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Well, as expected that "cold zonality" delivered the square root of diddly squat here last night - it's just been cold rain. Most frustrating when areas to the SE, NW, west and north have been reporting snowfall!

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It comes to something when the Chilterns gets 5cm plus from a Norrh Westerly. Here in Stoke we have just thick ice aroind and dodged all the overnight showers.

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