I believe the pub run is about to show the milder air in to the south at times theme that the MetO have been mentioning - LP pushing gradually up from the south introducing milder 850s for the extreme south.

Could be snowy for some if the front has enough left on it....

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

The NH view is quite remarkable http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_264_1.png

Realistic or not it is certainly entertaining.

So, will the GFSP be colder then? 

That high pulls air from the SW USA right over the pole and brushing northern Scotland. Remarkable set up. Pity it won't come off...

The GFSP has got a lock in in the pub it seems at t96

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24015.gif 

Yep its another incredible cold and snowy run . Even better than the main Op GFS. 

Yet another extraordinary chart:

a lot of emphasis on the 850’s really not worth worrying about - pattern important and wind direction - keep eye on few points as well

The 18Z parallel run is the best I've seen of this so far.

Will the ECM0Z come on board with all this?

yes it will

Now looking at differences in some models:

See which is the odd one out? - I wonder if the ECM is worth taking much notice of because at the end of the day it is only updated twice a day and 12hrs out as Doc said? Although behind Many other models i can't help but think the ECM is not right? If only that could be updated more regularly, like GFS etc are updated 4 times per day then it would make forecasting and understanding as well as cross model agreement a lot easier!?

ECM IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT! What do you think!?

ECM at 240: - Westerly winds and average temperatures of 7 to +8c with 0 to +4c uppers.

GEM @ 240: - 'LESS COLD'For the NW with westerly winds but bitterly cold in the south -7c maxes for midlands?:

Op run @ 240:

Para @ 240: - Daytime maxes of -2c with bitterly cold easterly winds -10c uppers and snow showers developing off the north sea and sweeping westwards across the country!?

Control Run @ 240:

I admire your confidence.   

The 12z ensemble for London showed an unusual picture of a period of increased uncertainty but then a return to a cleaner signal for cold again

For that reason in particular I'd favour the 00z throwing up a colder pattern again - but it's all a bit unclear still.

I'm very weary of all this until we get all the models on board. The ECM scenario is still the most natural one, in my opinion. The problem is there doesn't seem to be much upper level support for any of this. No significant heights to the north of the UK, all of this seems entirely down to a deep cold core low diving south over Europe. The ECM scenario of the atlantic slowly coming back in after the trough has weakened seems completely reasonable to me.

I still think there is a good chance the ECM will end up being wrong, but until it comes round I'm going to hold off on the excitement. Its so easy to get burned on here.

Hello to storm Emma again 🙂 - coming up from Portugal!

Let's hope so. although I imagine Darren Bett will be hoping it won't lol!

stayed up to see the 00z run was getting anxious due to lack of heights building over greenland then relaxed when I saw this Scandi block building from +168 until now 180z: But a battle zone scenario! 

Low pressure over central southern and SE Europe will prevent the Scandi block from sinking and hopefully the LP in Atlantic will under cut the Scandi high and allow this to retrogress to Greenland and build more of a bigger block: 

A shade less cold in the south in this 00z run so far but still heading in right direction and await the ECM 00z run for clarity!

The low pressure does under cut the block and then diminishes allowing HP to build over Greenland:

Daytime maxes -3 to -1c! So ice days with potential of snow flurries or snow showers spreading in westwards from the north sea across the country! 

Then with uppers of -10 to -14c covering most of the uk AND THEN spreading into many parts of the UK esp to south and south east

Right bed for me -

hope the ECM 00z catches up on this!?

Ola storm Emma: i Like 1st March 2018 - came up from Portugal!! haha JFF of course! it's FI.

How we finish the 00z run: - (Much colder than on the 18z run!)

Cold uppers just the other side of north sea that could head our direction (-14, -16c to -18c uppers @ 850 hpa): - Could head this way as nothing is stopping it!