The Weather Outlook

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Essan
18 January 2019 15:50:24


Local council have just activated the cold weather protocol with all homeless being found shelter.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



A shame it needs severe weather to force it, but good all the same

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

warrenb
18 January 2019 15:51:23



A shame it needs severe weather to force it, but good all the same

Originally Posted by: Essan 

It is

https://twitter.com/TMBC_Kent/status/1085891802505375744

Tonbridge 45m 
Shropshire
18 January 2019 15:56:09

T120 and it's all going well on the UKMO - though the UKMO does often follow the previous ECM run.

Models like the ICON won't handle unusual synoptics very well.

I wonder if this were 10 years ago how many of us would be expecting this to all implode at T72 or so ? 

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Rob K
18 January 2019 15:57:19
GFS has the cold air digging south slightly faster on Monday night/Tuesday. I notice the Met Office 5-dayer has changed from "rain and hill snow" to the vague "wintry showers" for Tue now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2019 15:57:50

Very good ukmo 120

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 16:01:18

Artic high looks stronger on 12z

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Shropshire
18 January 2019 16:01:58

Now then...

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011812/UW144-21.GIF?18-17

 

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
ballamar
18 January 2019 16:04:37

Now then...

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011812/UW144-21.GIF?18-17

 

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

Looking very good the low dropping to Italy about as good as we can hope

pthomps
18 January 2019 16:09:07

 

Go to the main GFS page and then choose PARA in the members section at bottom left. Or here: run: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=0&run=12&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Ah-ha! Thank you 

Shropshire
18 January 2019 16:13:59

Artic high looks stronger on 12z

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes the Arctic High is key here - how many times have we seen it influence our winter weather since Jan 87 ? Very rarely - you would have to conclude that the SSW is the factor. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
kmoorman
18 January 2019 16:15:25

Latest GFS all on track.  One thing I noticed was the Azores High is getting squeezed out a bit more on this run.  Hopefully that's a positive thing to allow lows to undercut and support the block

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

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Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 16:15:46

This run is going to be a corker. Surely:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_147_2.png

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

kmoorman
18 January 2019 16:18:19

Latest GFS all on track.  One thing I noticed was the Azores High is getting squeezed out a bit more on this run.  Hopefully that's a positive thing to allow lows to undercut and support the block

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

so. old chart for 1pm on the 24th 

 

12Z version - The Azores High is far less strong

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Shropshire
18 January 2019 16:27:00

T186 and the negative tilting is there in the Atlantic, similar to 06z. It's a long way back to mild from there.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
18 January 2019 16:27:31
Cold air struggling to flood west on this GFS one, but it might be better in the long run.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

kmoorman
18 January 2019 16:28:07

T186 and the negative tilting is there in the Atlantic, similar to 06z. It's a long way back to mild from there.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

Yes, this evolution will probably be less snowy early on, as we lose the Easterly, BUT there's a lot of potential brewing the SW and we have a much stronger Scandi High to support it. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 16:32:34

Its a good run overall. Keeps to the theme. Massive potential in long run.

It does get a bit discombulated mid run though

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

kmoorman
18 January 2019 16:33:20

Annoyingly we get stuck in a little col between flows, with cold air to the north and a gentle W flow to the South. Quite a temp contrast. 

 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2019 16:33:37

Crazy synoptic on the GFS run in a good way.

Gem has a brilliant easterly then bitter UK high.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 January 2019 16:33:56
Milder air comes up from the south, as hinted at in the Met Office outlook, but could mean massive snowfall in the sweet spot.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tallyho_83
18 January 2019 16:34:53

@ 213 = Blocked & Hopefully that low will undercut that big HP:

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 16:35:06

This is a mid pack run, but I suspect we will see a few -15c 850 in ensembles. Its a bit messy; but I am extremely happy.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 16:36:16

This is crazy:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_219_1.png

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Shropshire
18 January 2019 16:36:21

Messy by day 9 with some less cold air into the South for a time.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Snowedin3
18 January 2019 16:39:16
Another variation on the theme from GFS it’s extreamly snowy for Scotland and northern England, won’t be how it plays out as it’s to far away, but one things for sure it’s looking like a very extended period of cold weather.
Dean Barnes

Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire

160m ASL 525 Ft

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