Time to roll out my yearly advice. Stick to 5 day Fax Charts....for your mental state, go no further!

I'm walking in the Lakes Friday and Saturday and the MetO Fax Charts are showing me bright, dry, frosty weather. Perfect. I'm hoping the front coming south on Wednesday night will give a dusting to the tops 👍

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Which is why I feel confident that this particular run has a high probability of verifying. 

 

Indeed. I still think the best rule for model watching goes something like this.

If GFS and ECM both go for Mild then Mild will happen.

If GFS goes for Mild and ECM goes for cold then a disappointing middle will happen (with no snow).

If GFS goes for cold and ECM goes for Mild then Mild will happen

If GFS goes for cold and ECM goes for cold then whichever model is the least cold will happen.

 

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Time to roll out my yearly advice. Stick to 5 day Fax Charts....for your mental state, go no further!

I'm walking in the Lakes Friday and Saturday and the MetO Fax Charts are showing me bright, dry, frosty weather. Perfect. I'm hoping the front coming south on Wednesday night will give a dusting to the tops 👍

Even that can be bad for your mental state when the UKMO is the only model to go for cold and the FAX charts reflect that and the UKMO is inevitably wrong.

 

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It isn't. Not if you look at the ensembles and ignore the far reaches that only it shows. If you stick to T+240 and the ensembles it has been quite consistent and no more inconsistent than the other models in the same time frame and if we do not get decent snow and cold next week it will have been the model that hinted at the problem with the ridging of the Azores HP first. With GFS coming out every 6 hours and quoting in the distant unreliable frame it always appears that way. It just comes under more scrutiny when people are looking at possible cold. It is a case of if you say it enough people will believe it and there is too much of that going on these days!

The link I have posted should explain why I think your reasoning is wrong.

Ultra blocking showing up quite widely in the GEFS06z. Looks like a big shift, but don't know whether 850s will reflect it.

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Move away from the 'black hole low' today in the models. Seems like there is a desire to keep HP lingering over the UK next week. So below average temperatures definitely on the cards. Snow watchers are going to be disappointed by the outlook though.

 

So low pressure systems toppling over our HP and going straight into central Europe to give the Alps more snow that they don't need!

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Ultra blocking showing up quite widely in the GEFS06z. Looks like a big shift, but don't know whether 850s will reflect it.

 

Where's the blocking located, though?

 

 

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Where's the blocking located, though?

 

To the north generally. 

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Here are the GEFS06z (that's the earliest they've ever appeared on TWO).

 

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yesterdays 12z para:

Today's 06z PARA

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Here are the GEFS06z (that's the earliest they've ever appeared on TWO).

 

NOT LOOKING GOOD - Mean stays above -5c @ 850hpa once this weekend is out of the way!?

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Ultra blocking showing up quite widely in the GEFS06z. Looks like a big shift, but don't know whether 850s will reflect it.

Yes the odd hint of northern blocking trying to nose in here and there 

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More colder runs for my location in the GEFS than in the 00Z run. From the 24th, seems to be more runs in the -5 to -11 850hpa range than there was previously

 

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To the north generally. 

Interesting. The 6z GFSP is out to t210 and the jet is raging over the top of the the Azores/UK ridge up into Svalbard. From that run at least, there appears no obvious route to Northern blocking in the foreseeable future!

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Well still no clear route to HLB as of yet and given this winter so far you wouldn’t rule out heights just parking up on top us again.

Look at the 06z para  @ 240 with LP directly over the N. Pole:

LP approaching Greenland and Iceland etc..!?

The only good thing is that the azores is no longer there!!

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Well still no clear route to HLB as of yet and given this winter so far you wouldn’t rule out heights just parking up on top us again.

So no hard frosts either!

 

For Low pressure to go around the high and topple over and then dive down into central Europe and give them the snow when they have already had weeks of it? hmm!! Brexit - Weather doesn't want to include us and really is making us feel like we have left already!

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011506/gfs-0-264.png?6 

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To the north generally. 

 

Well that's alright, then.

 

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Snow Rows show less snow forecast in Scotland (more a case of it being drier, rather than too mild), increases in the SE.

 

City	6z 15/01/19	0z 15/01/19	Change
Inverness	274	286	-12
Newcastle	141	176	-35
Edinburgh	136	146	-10
Glasgow	129	142	-13
Aberdeen	127	143	-16
Liverpool	127	134	-7
Belfast	120	129	-9
Sheffield	106	95	+11
Dublin	105	103	+2
Norwich	97	101	-4
Birmingham	92	95	-3
London	86	76	+10
Brighton	78	52	+26
Cardiff	68	63	+5
Plymouth	35	26	+9

 

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