The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
11 January 2019 19:09:01

 

 

Shame you can't see and get precipitation type on para charts. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Cumulative ppt type on TWO here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=12&charthour=6&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
11 January 2019 19:11:47

Remarkable how ECM manages to dance with the cold uppers and keep them away from the UK. The 144 charts looks to be the coldest for the majority of the UK. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Hippydave
11 January 2019 19:29:05

Odd looking FI to the ECM run, ending on a chilly note, with I imagine some hill snow around. The T240 chart is loaded with potential with the LP dropping SE'wards to join the Scandi trough ready to advect some proper cold air our way.

All a bit academic at that range of course but fun to see.

Nice to be able to say it's still looking the switch to colder more unsettled weather is strongly favoured, with snow a possibility for just about anywhere at times. It's not looking like a prolonged cold spell down here but it does look cold and unsettled with a low chance of something more prolonged setting up.

As it stands I'd be surprised if I didn't see some snow falling, with maybe some temporary accumulations at times although I'm not expecting much more than that for the time being. 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

tallyho_83
11 January 2019 19:40:48

Edit: Tally, that parallel chart reminds me VERY much of early December 2010

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

True they both go up to 1075mb's over Greenland!

25th Jan 2019:

 

16th December 2010 - You said it: 

 

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

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Arcus
11 January 2019 20:00:26

Weird looking ECM at 240. The sort of pressure pattern that you just don’t ever see in reality, so I’m rather sceptical.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A chart with a (weakly) +ve NAO, and as I mentioned last night when the Jet is being disrupted, relatively fragile looking blocks can form and maintain themselves, so I don't think it's an unreasonable chart to see in that scenario.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
11 January 2019 20:06:20

. 12z ECMWF Model run:

It is not that interesting today..

Quiet and neither Cold nor MILD, but chilly yes.

And not much weather action after T120 eh.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Brian Gaze
11 January 2019 20:09:22

ECM op was one of the milder runs later on. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Gandalf The White
11 January 2019 20:14:32

 

True they both go up to 1075mb's over Greenland!

25th Jan 2019:

 

16th December 2010 - You said it: 

 

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Except that the upper block is notably weaker this time - and that is a significant difference.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



jhall
11 January 2019 20:15:46

ECM op was one of the milder runs later on. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That looks to be pretty much in line with what the GFS ensemble is saying.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Gusty
11 January 2019 20:24:48

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Rob K
11 January 2019 20:28:51

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Looks like the ECM control run was interesting!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
11 January 2019 20:36:48

Mean getting tasty t144 n n/e would do good Nice

 

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Polar Low
11 January 2019 20:58:00

Westward correction from its mean M quite rare indeed

 

At 144hr the ECM 12z op is very similiar to the UKMO at the same time point. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Polar Low
11 January 2019 21:06:12

very few of Ian,s yellows left >16 Jan end of Jan at the surface now Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

Polar Low
11 January 2019 21:10:30

Aye yum

From next weekend on wards things look...'INTERESTING' for the whole of the UK, if this set up verifies!? 

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

jhall
11 January 2019 21:14:12

very few of Ian,s yellows left >16 Jan end of Jan at the surface now Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I'd settle for #3 (remembering that the numbers start at 0).


Cranleigh, Surrey
Polar Low
11 January 2019 21:26:53

I like 17 myself but im fussy

 

 

I'd settle for #3 (remembering that the numbers start at 0).

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Gooner
11 January 2019 21:50:08

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
11 January 2019 21:58:20

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

If Fergie the messiah has said it then it must be true 🥶🍾🤣🤣

Polar Low
11 January 2019 22:03:04

I like MH note better last night, keep the faith Marcus

Overnight EC Monthly is bonkers with major N Atlantic and eventually Greenland blocking by week 2 onwards and with low pressure over and to the S of the UK with a clear signal for E or NE winds into Feb. It's got to verify of course but a consistent fcst that now.

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Gooner
11 January 2019 22:21:49

Week today LP moves across ,

Hopefully drag the cold air down


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Steve Murr
11 January 2019 22:23:01
@Shropshire

Heres your 18z Jet axis for day 7 (168)

As highlighted perhaps 3 days ago, almost zero chance of a zonal flow occuring when axis is so distorted west of the UK

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=5 

Gooner
11 January 2019 22:24:02

Followed by a slider to the NW ?

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
11 January 2019 22:30:47

Bit different ………….got a bomb to the NW 

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Rob K
11 January 2019 22:36:56

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Yes I noticed the Met have also “gone public” on Twitter about the coming cold. No real detail beyond what they say in the long ranger though. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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