Model Output Discussion

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member Topic Starter

11 January 2019 12:36:50

.

Hi to all on here.

This mornings GFS, UKMO and ECMWF to T144, as we go from mild NW winds, to cold NW winds- by GFS from 144 to 240 looks cold with both High and Low Pressure in charge with very low 850 hPa temperatures, and the cold Low Pressure is ready and on course from NW and North Atlantic to dive SE in midrange for more cold and unsettled weather.

By Thursday to Sunday (17th to 20th) we look like getting blocking affects and some really cold and dry frosty weather, as well as some deflection of North Atlantic Low's, to keep the weather changeable to a bit..

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member Topic Starter

11 January 2019 12:49:28

#2

I am really amazed to see so much cold arctic air for such a long time already as seen in East and Central North and NE Europe away from the West Europe and the UK.

At T144 circa Thursday next week, on the 2nd colder day- we get to see us finally get some cold frosty nights widespread cold air, and I can see that from 168 to T240, the detail and accuracy in forecasting and watching cold pool over these areas, and reduction of less cold air over the UK is possible but still need revising this in next 5 days.

North Atlantic and Greenland as well and Norwegian Sea and Iceland, should likely get more Low Pressure and cold Arctic air.

High Pressure in Greenland and SW N Central Atlantic N., and more Low Pressure forcing in West NW N. Atlantic- can that get reverse flow as it crosses to North Atlantic Sea? will the Subtropical energy reduce itself as we go to about Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd and 23rd of January.

NE Canada PV Low go over Newfoundland and then it moves East to North Atlantic and sit at the NW part of STJ PV Low Pressure.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

kmoorman
Advanced Member

11 January 2019 12:58:49

#3

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

pdiddy
Advanced Member

11 January 2019 13:03:14

#4

Regarding snow row... I thought it was 20 members, plus Op, Control and Para and the number within that showing snow?

Certainly a different period of model watching with significant precipitation and sustained cold uppers in conjunction. Can't recall seeing this for a while.

ballamar
Advanced Member

11 January 2019 13:07:43

#5

Regarding snow row... I thought it was 20 members, plus Op, Control and Para and the number within that showing snow?

Certainly a different period of model watching with significant precipitation and sustained cold uppers in conjunction. Can't recall seeing this for a while.

Originally Posted by: pdiddy

72 years ago they said don’t worry it won’t last, we are almost in a modern winter

kmoorman
Advanced Member

11 January 2019 13:14:14

#6

Regarding snow row... I thought it was 20 members, plus Op, Control and Para and the number within that showing snow?

Certainly a different period of model watching with significant precipitation and sustained cold uppers in conjunction. Can't recall seeing this for a while.

Originally Posted by: pdiddy

It is. I checked the ensemble for Greenland and the max there was 23, and I guess that's a reasonable example to choose.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968