http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

NAO finally heading in the right direction:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 

That also goes for the AO index:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 

On the ecm suite one member drops to -20 at ground level!!

And the polar vortex is well & truly, dead shown well here:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=8.87,89.56,276 

Lots to be positive about IMO

So my question: - why isn't the GFS 06Z run op) run showing this sort of blocked set up because there is quite a difference between the OP FI and Para FI run?

Para looks so blocked compared to OP run.,

Hopefully before long the op run will chuck out something like P19 of the 6Z GEFS to lift the spirits!

Who knows? Clearly some minor difference in the modelling has had a big impact on this occasion, even though more often than not what the two versions come up with is very similar. If it's true that the Parallel run is intended to take over as the Operational from the start of next month, as someone wrote here a few days ago, then there must be a good chance that it's closer to being correct. Though even the last few operational runs have shown signs of developing a Scandi High right out at T+384. Let that intensify by 10 mb or so over the following day or two, and we could have a really cold easterly setting in.

Brian’s 300 countdown has officially begun.😎

I must contain my excitement as I’ve been burnt many times before relying on sumptuous looking charts only to find a damp squib at T-0 hrs. 😁

I quite liked 14, think optimism can be raised. At least it is fun watching at the moment and usual suspect not t bleating on about zonality pretending they can forecast 4 weeks ahead!!

Nah, 19 is where it's at... successive midday temps for a random spot in the Midlands of -0.5C, -4.3C, -5.2C and -5.6C  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=270&y=91&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Mixingmemetaphores.

I think it's fatal to rabbits.

Already some significant changes on the GFS 12z as early as 228hrs.

Is this the flip coming. Looks like this low wants to dive southeastwards:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_228_1.png

The slightest hints of fronts wanting to slide south east than sweep across the UK on this afternoons run.  

Could be a tad windy down the east coast later next week if GEM was right

Hopefullly the GFSP, ensembles and ECM will also support the change to more unsettled conditions midmonth and then a cooling trend more generally.

The pizza slice looks positively tepid.

If only this did materialise - this LP to our south could produce some record amount of snow or wet snow or could be cold rain and sleet near the coast:

I was thinking similarly. Southern England could have a lot of snow, if that was to materialise. But of course it's T+300, so unlikely to.

..and it's got a soggy bottom. Conditions (at least in the south) look marginal for a crisp base.

19 was amazing, Rob, as you say, with days on end of -10 uppers and -4 midday temps at some point even far south.

The beauty unrolled slowly after the low giving the deep northerly sank into Europe and produced a good LP-driven E'ly with multiple waves travelling westwards around its N edge.

Wasn't the March 1891 low like that- the one that put 100ft drifts in Tavy Cleave (Dartmoor)?