The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2019 07:40:11

Now that the Scots have had their say, take a look at the ground water levels in the Chilgrove well - and remember that ground water is the basis of water supplies for the southeast. The levels are lower than they've been since 2011 and still decreasing, which is not unknown, but no sign in the models of any significant amounts of rainfall or even snowfall this month. Other well levels in the second link - you can see a dramatic difference from, say, Swan House in the NE.

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwater/datainfo/levels/sites/ChilgroveHouse.html

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwater/datainfo/levels/home.html 

Despite comments from picturesareme, rainfall in the southeast this summer was in the form of very local thunderstorms (which caught Portsmouth but not Chichester, for instance) and most summer rainfall,especially the heavy stuff, runs off rather than go into ground water


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

johncs2016
04 January 2019 12:42:20

Personally, I prefer to go by the 1981-2010 averages, and the map for that anomaly can be found here.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
04 January 2019 13:55:54

 

Personally, I prefer to go by the 1981-2010 averages, and the map for that anomaly can be found here.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

 

Interesting. The vast majority of the country had below average rainfall then.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

richardabdn
04 January 2019 18:24:10

 

Personally, I prefer to go by the 1981-2010 averages, and the map for that anomaly can be found here.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

First drier than average year here since 2013. Note there is tiny darker brown anomaly close to Aberdeen. That is just about where my house is located and reflects when we had thunderstorms in July and the interesting tropical downpours transferred from the east of here to the west without managing to go overhead


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Gavin D
07 January 2019 09:09:34

Weekly bulletin: Wednesday 26 December 2018 to Tuesday 1 January 2019

"Summary

It has been a dry week across most of England. River flows decreased at over three-quarters of indicator sites and flows at more than half of all sites are lower than normal for the time of year.

Rainfall 

Rainfall totals over the past week range from 0.2 mm in south-east England to 6 mm in north-west England (Table 1 and Figure 1). Cumulative rainfall totals for December ranged from 101% of the monthly long term average (LTA) in north-east England to 134% in south-west England (Table 1).

River flow

River flows across England decreased at over three-quarters of the indicator sites. Daily mean flows are classed as normal or below for the time of year at most sites.

Outlook

High pressure is likely to remain dominant over the next week so the weather will be predominantly settled, dry and cold. There is the odd chance of a short shower, however, the rainfall totals are likely to be low"

 

https://t.co/hFBWrwDrV9

johncs2016
27 January 2019 11:38:15

I know that this is a very old thread now, but I also haven't forgotten that the reason why I started this particular thread was because I have been very concerned about the recent lack of rainfall in this part of the world and the potential impacts which this might have going into the summer if our rainfall levels don't increase significantly by then. The fact that this month looks as though it may well be our driest January on record raises those concerns even more.

As a result of those concerns, I have done some research into how the local river levels have responded to that, and discovered this information from SEPA on the latest river levels on the Water of Leith next to Murrayfield Station in Edinburgh, which is the closest such station to where I live. What is perhaps rather surprising here is that the actual river levels are holding up quite well at the moment despite the currently ongoing lack of rainfall here.

However, the current levels are at the very low end of normal as shown on the diagram on the link which I have pointed to here. At some point during this year though, the weather is going to get warmer as we get further into the year and as that happens, I can see a great risk there that these river levels will drop even further when that happens if we don't start to get more in the way of rainfall by then. That in turn could bring some serious consequences for the summer if that turns out to be another hot and dry one. Here, I have only referred to one such site, but I'm pretty sure that it is the same story throughout this area.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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