I would not be surprised to see a similiar theme with different details from the GFSP but a more scattered range of options on the ensemble data later.

The operational run is certainly being amazingly consistent from run to run in what it forecasts for FI, considering how far out it is. 

To read some of the posts on here you’d think we were looking at the kind of Bartlett horror charts of the 90s.

This is just not true. Winters in Greece have warmed up (less than here) and snow frequency has decreased significantly esp in Northern Greece.

However more localised heavy snowfalls have increased in Athens and some Aegean islands (they have a version of lake effect snow) over the last 30 years mainly due to a more prominent Azores high.

Before the Internet era people here didn't know how often it snows in Greece as they only go there during the hot summer season.

And speaking of this, the summers there have trended significantly hotter over the last 30 years (1-1.5C).

Apologies for the off-topic.

It could always be consistently wrong but it will make for an interesting "“post-mortem” when the time comes.

 If people are curious about my mentioning the GFSP it is simply because it verifies better than the existing op and it is set to be the “new GFS” by the end of the month. 

(And  to Rob)

👍I would agree plenty to be optimistic about.

The last few runs tie in with what the Met LRF are predicting as well. Average winter fare, followed by a potential cold spell from the end of the month.

I would say anything before that is a bonus.

That's not the experience of Greek locals who live near my friends - over the last 15 years there has been record cold/snow in some locations.

It would be good to get some official statistics for Greek winters.

The map shows 2m temperature for NDJFM over the last 30 years minus the previous 30 (1989-2018 minus 1959-1988). Data from NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis. 

I also have family there, but this is all anecdotal. There have been more heavy snowfalls locally (across the eastern seaboard of continental Greece and the Aegean islands), but overall it used to snow much more often in Greece.

Plenty of scatter throughout with a wide range of 850s on offer all the way out to t384, where there is a range of -13c to +5c. After all, beyond day 7 it’s all  Fantasy Island 🌴 where you can have your hearts desire. 

I think 30°C with unbroken sunshine for weeks on end is probably out of the question?  

The scatter does not surprise me and any of the scenarios may come to fruition but at the moment I would side with the op/GFSP scenarios purely because of their consistency, not just because they have some exciting scenarios. 

 Excellent chart. It hides the possibility of more varied winters (for example 2 cold and 3 mild rather than 5 average) in parts of Europe but taken as a whole the trend is clearly in the milder direction. 

That looks to me like a full downing by the21st.

That is my impression too. I’d be very surprised if in a rapidly warming world, that Greece was hanging onto a Cooling rather than warming winter climate. Not impossible but unlikely. 

None of his of course alters the original point, which is that most of Greece has a colder winter climate than Britain, and people should understand this before feeling hard done by when continental Southern Europeans get their snow.

Oh dear. This does not look good. All very boring and near normal now. January is beginning to look (dare I say it) a write off, and so my January forecast will be a bust (along with nearly all others).

This winter is going to be very boring indeed....of more concern is lack of rain as if this continues 2019 could be a drought year.

Yes cold spell mid month now not longer going to materialise and very little if any cold In that ensemble chart.

Stunning 280h onwards from the GFS Para .

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. After all, the greater part of Greece is surrounded by the Mediterranean and you are never far from the sea. Only the inland northern part of the country might rival Britain for cold.

It was not a “cold spell midmonth” it was and still is a transition to more unsettled conditions moving south. That has not changed. There are lots of options and plenty of mobility. The GFS op and GFSP highlight this nicely. 

In the “realistic” timeframe there is a little but potent feature brushing the north tomorrow into Tuesday and then back to more anticyclonic weather for a week or so. Whether that is cold or not depends on exact details and cloud cover. Midmonth will see a change and an increase in wintry potential, that in itself guarantees or promises nothing.

I would have said that for the ensemble mean to be as much as 2-3 degrees below the long-term mean as far out as 16 days, when random noise has generally swamped everything else, is pretty unusual and quite encouraging. And the further reaches of the GFSP run is a thing of beauty. :)

With the greatest of respect to both you and Kieren, I think you are both jumping the gun.

From what I can see, the near term doesn't look that exciting but there is enough interest in the FI section of the last few GFS op runs to suggest that even if we don't get anything notably cold in mid-January, the second half of the month may provide some interest for those seeking cold. The ensemble run that Kieren refers too many not look great at the moment, but anyone who knows anything about these runs will know that they, just like the op runs, can and sometimes do change notably in a fairly short space of time.

I really don't understand some of the despondency there has been on this thread today. Yes, no cold seems likely before mid-month, but there again I don't think there was ever any great likelihood of this in the first place. The MetO have been consistent in recent days that the interesting time will likely be in the second half of January, and with some hints starting to appear in far FI of the GFS op runs I see no reason to be donwbeat at the moment.

There's one big dipper at the end but these don't look overly inspiring for cold weather fans and they now go out to 22/01. Sorry, but I can only call things as I seem them. Absolutely happy, fine and dandy for all and sundry to disagree with me!