The Weather Outlook

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fairweather
06 January 2019 15:04:40

 

😅. Nicely put. It never ceases to make me chuckle how people think the UK has a colder mid winter climate than most of Greece. It does not!

As you put it, it’s called a continental climate. Ours is maritime. Greece is far better placed to receive cold shots from the NE. It is far more “unfair” if we get the cold rather than Greece, and it is far less likely here, being an island on the western edge of the colossal Atlantic, with its North Atlantic Drift and jet aloft.

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Whilst that is absolutely true climatically speaking they have trended even more towards their type and it is a matter of fact that NW winters have got somewhat milder and less snowy and Greek winters colder and more snowy over the last thirty years. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Solar Cycles
06 January 2019 15:28:35

 

That wouldn't alter the predominant west-east flow: you'd just get colder rain....

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Only in Summer. 😉

Brian Gaze
06 January 2019 15:29:13

 

Whilst that is absolutely true climatically speaking they have trended even more towards their type and it is a matter of fact that NW winters have got somewhat milder and less snowy and Greek winters colder and more snowy over the last thirty years. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I suspect that is correct. It would be interesting to see whether the statistics back it up.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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David M Porter
06 January 2019 15:57:14

 

No, friends who live in Greece say they locals say there been snow where they live in the last 20 years than they remember in their lifetimes.

We know why - inability to build HLB.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Then how did the Beast at the end of last winter happen, plus the notable cold spells of December 2010 and the 2009/10 winter? I know that events at the end of last winter were driven by last February's SSW, but contrary to what you seem to be suggesting HLB can and still does occur when the circumstances are right for it, even if it has been a rarer occurence in recent times compared to many moons ago.

 

 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Whether Idle
06 January 2019 15:59:35

 

Whilst that is absolutely true climatically speaking they have trended even more towards their type and it is a matter of fact that NW winters have got somewhat milder and less snowy and Greek winters colder and more snowy over the last thirty years. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

So what you are saying reinforces my point.😁 You are saying that in the last 30 years ( the standard period for climatic data is 30 years), the already colder continental climate has become colder and our maritime climate has warmed. 

Yes indeed, it would be interesting to see the climatic data for Greece. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
06 January 2019 16:04:51

If we have to wait until March again it better be offset with another wonderful summer as compensation.

This has to be without a doubt the most frustrating winter in a generation. At least with the zonal winters we can unequivocally write winter off early. This one is like pulling teeth. All the background signals are there but as you say Marcus, the weather will do as it pleases. I don't think the signals make a blind bit of difference in this part of the world.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well, I don't think you can, because 'early' on, you don't yet know it's going to be a zonal winter.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2019 16:21:38

 

I suspect that is correct. It would be interesting to see whether the statistics back it up.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

I would not agree with that. I am originally form Serbia which is not a million miles form Greece and everyone there agrees that winters have become a joke there in the last 20 - 30 years. The older generation pre WW2 said winters have changed and are nothing like they used to be. In the capital city a few days of snow is followed by slush. Take Moscow as another example has anyone seen temperatures dipping lower then -10c this winter?

Kingston Upon Thames
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 16:30:54

 

Whilst that is absolutely true climatically speaking they have trended even more towards their type and it is a matter of fact that NW winters have got somewhat milder and less snowy and Greek winters colder and more snowy over the last thirty years. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

 

Id be amazed if Greek winters had got colder it would go against the rest of Europe 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
06 January 2019 16:33:07

 

 

I would not agree with that. I am originally form Serbia which is not a million miles form Greece and everyone there agrees that winters have become a joke there in the last 20 - 30 years. The older generation pre WW2 said winters have changed and are nothing like they used to be. In the capital city a few days of snow is followed by slush. Take Moscow as another example has anyone seen temperatures dipping lower then -10c this winter?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Ironically it is -10°C there at the moment and had dipped to -16°C in midDecember.

Closer to home and the more unsettled (albeit more westerly than northerly) conditions are on track for midmonth based on the GFS 12z op run so far. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_210_1.png 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

The Beast from the East
06 January 2019 16:39:42

worst case scenario for coldies, but should be lovely and mild in the south

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Shropshire
06 January 2019 16:40:08

Dreadful 12z out to day 9.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Shropshire
06 January 2019 16:42:15

worst case scenario for coldies, but should be lovely and mild in the south

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes I'm not surpised we are now seeing runs that start to push the High into Europe,  the PV looks ominous and it would be a long way back from there.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
06 January 2019 16:46:40

.

12z UKMO and GFS today showing that upto January 16th and 17th, just some occasional rain interludes and mild weather and winds from the WNW or the WSW is on offer.

I agree that the Gulf Stream is expected to remain in charge based on the above Model data I am talking about.

My optimism has now waned.

This Zonal dross and miserable overcast skies and some occasional sunshine and brighter spells mixed in at times, and temperatures above the January normal through much of the next 11 days or so.

.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

David M Porter
06 January 2019 16:46:46

worst case scenario for coldies in the SW, but should be lovely and mild in the south

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Tidied.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 16:46:53

As if by magic the Iceland wedge appears again at day 12.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
06 January 2019 16:47:26

 

Yes I'm not surpised we are now seeing runs that start to push the High into Europe,  the PV looks ominous and it would be a long way back from there.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Indeed, it would be a long way back to the anticyclonic conditions of late. At least the cooler and more unsettled spell will give some wintry opportunities at various times not to mention potentially stormy ones.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

dagspot
06 January 2019 16:47:33
Average temp in Dec 18 in Moscow was -5dc

The lowest recorded minimum was -17dc

Neilston 600ft ASL
Maunder Minimum
06 January 2019 16:48:39
Utterly despondent about the shockingly bad weather outlook. I am going to give the model output the cold shoulder for a week in the forlorn hope that it will be looking up by next weekend.
New world order coming.
Shropshire
06 January 2019 16:49:03

 

Indeed, it would be a long way back to the anticyclonic conditions of late. At least the cooler and more unsettled spell will give some wintry opportunities at various times not to mention potentially stormy ones.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

For Central and Southern areas the zonal spell will be milder than the current HP spell.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Phil24
06 January 2019 16:51:35

Any comments and analysis would be great.  little blip around the 11th but is the 21st of more significance.

doctormog
06 January 2019 16:53:44

 

For Central and Southern areas the zonal spell will be milder than the current HP spell.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

”Zonal spell”. Okay. 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 16:54:12

Well GFS once again gets there very late on. Can it count down to Zero hour? Consistency is pretty remarkable that's about 5 Ops in a a row now that have the Iceland Wedge.

 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
06 January 2019 16:55:25

 

Yes I'm not surpised we are now seeing runs that start to push the High into Europe,  the PV looks ominous and it would be a long way back from there.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Hmmm....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

doctormog
06 January 2019 16:55:39

Well GFS once again gets there very late on. Can it count down to Zero hour? 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I think we have to get through the initial transition midmonth or as some would like to call it “Zonal spell” first 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 16:57:39

 

I think we have to get through the initial transition midmonth or as some would like to call it “Zonal spell” first 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Hopefully it's into something GFS can be very good at these long out pattern changes.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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