Let's hope so.

Welcome to TWO btw, DPower.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_384_1.png 

Hopefully start of the long awaited trend

Signs of northern blocking in FI!

Once past 200+hours on the GFS run things start to look interesting a bit a kin to whats being said by the Beeb and MetO

GFS has the nice little wedge of heights near Iceland again day 12. No HLB on the ECM out to day 10 definitely a slow burner from here this one. Patience as ever required 

Indeed.  Its always being pushed outwards, as has been reflected in the Met longer range text forecast.  

Meanwhile, the rainfall trail starts to pep up from around 12th January.  We do need our winter rains.

Martin

Always is, but it never gets closer. Story of our lives on TWO

But now I have become a fully paid up mild booster, it doesn't bother me anymore

We will soon be past the coldest part of winter and the daffs are already pushing up

Means absolutely nothing

Last March ring any bells ?

😎

It’s a bit like pulling teeth at times but we really won’t see any clear signs of an SSW response until around the 10th Jan at the earliest at which point I believe the switch in the far end of modelling will be quite dramatic. Until then we’ll continue to get drips and drabs from GEFS and ECens.

Actually yes M, last March was a good example of a why snow/ice event is never really as potent so late on in the winter/early spring

00Z EC ENS are highly uninspiring and actually follow a very 'flat' 00Z EC model. Apart from frost Tue/Wed of this week temps persistently above freezing and with little risk of colder weather prior to mid-month. Beyond that, still all to play for, but nothing prior to then...

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 6, 2019

I think part of the issue recently has been that because there was a pretty quick response in the synoptic set-up last February to the SSW that took place in the middle of that month, some people may have been hoping/expecting the same thing to happen this time around. My understanding is that in many cases, it can take up to 3-4 weeks before the effects of a SSW fully propogate down to the troposphere and this start to have some effect on the prevailing pressure patterns. I get the feeling that this time, the effects of the SSW that took place over Xmas & New Year may well take a little longer to affect the model output we have access to than was the case last year.

As someone once said, patience grasshopper, patience!

Pretty much accords with what the MetO have been saying for a while now.

State the obvious please 

So if you had the temps and snow from last March delivered to the UK tomorrow you'd be disappointed …………...erm?

Yes, but will soon reach the point of either the NWP will change or the METO will cancel/shunt the cold further back.

Agreed. LaiqB's analysis is sound, but he seems to say that it is still all rather uncertain with so many Atlantic influences, consequences etc however, with cold options so numerous in FI on so many purtabations, the trend to colder polar maritime, arctic or polar continental air mass influences is plain to see. Perhaps the SSW gives greater impetus of cold air advection south to override the normally dominant Gulf Stream and Jet stream combination. It seems we need this extra impetus in the modern winter with greater energy in the weather patterns - but I may be just my conjecture on that. 

See Neil's post at the bottom of the previous page, Ian.

IMO, there are a few subtle hints in FI of the GFS 00z op this morning of some changes, but I do emphasise the word "subtle" and certainly not anything that anyone can take too seriously at this stage. That said, if there is to be a change to cold as the MetO are currently anticipating for later in January, then it will need to start from somewhere at sometime. Whether or not GFS is starting to latch onto something in FI, only the coming runs will tell.

I’d love to know why people think things have changed or are worse than a week ago in terms of output. No output has shown any cold or unsettled weather before midmonth. The promise has always been from midmonth, which incidentally is also midwinter. If things were getting pushed back then the cold would still be at 300-384 hours out (4th week in January) and not midmonth (14th to 17th).

What is not and has not been shown is bitter cold and widespread snow just much colder and unsettled. There continues to be no clear sign of cold easterlies etc. But that’s not a delay just nit something that ever really been shown. That of course could change relatively quickly I suppose.

I‘d expect the 06z GFS/P to continue this timescale with colder more unsettled conditions setting in from the 14th to 17th.

I agree that no output has suggested cold before mid-month - but when you see the EC ensembles indicated a very flat pattern out to Jan 15th with everything in the wrong place for UK cold - there is going to be concern that those charts will change to anything decent going forward.

This text highlighted is significant IMO. The more unsettled theme has been consistently modelled from mid month very well (as you've mentioned once or twice recently )

The northerly was indicative of ridging Atlantic heights ridging polewards edging in ever colder northerlies. What we have now is a more of a flatter WNW'ly with the Polar Vortex safely firing away around to our NNE (just the very place we need to see height rises).

ECM 240 hours - Mid month. Cool but nothing remotely cold with another delivery by Pizza Express earmarked around the 17-18th. 

Hanging on the hope that this SSW is to produce a winter wonderland to the UK is a risky ole business and could well be fraught with disappointment.

The cold continues to get pushed post 240 hours. The Met Office text updates are indicative of this.