A couple of points, I have only seen the ensemble mean chart (the merging of all scenarios). If the individual runs are available already  for the 15th and you have a link I will look before commenting. Secondly saying there is no cold by the 15th is not surprising when the cold is due from midmonth 

You can repeat that fact as often as you like, it still falls on deaf ears. 

i have not and will not refer to any impact from the SSW as I don’t know how or if it will affect things.

I hope you're right the GFS and its ensembles would suggest you're on to something,  but ecm is poor this morning .

You say that everything is in the wrong place for UK cold. The chances of cold would have been even poorer had your prediction from during the festive season of the HP currently over us moving SE into the continent materialised. This is not yet completely out of the question, but there is no indication of this in the op mdel runs I have seen this morning and have seen in recent days.

Also, there was a time about 10 days ago when a number of GFS op runs showed the atlantic retaking control of the weather towards the end of the week just gone, a solution which you were strongly supporting at the time even when ECM began to backtrack from this. I'm not saying for a second that I know for a fact what the weather will be like two or more weeks from now, but the way I see it there is a fair degree of volatility in the models at the moment, just as there was last February and there likely will be until the models have properly sussed out what, if any, effect the recent SSW has on pressre patterns in this part of the world.

...and despite what some tweets might say, unsupported by its ensembles.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

out of interest what is the coldest part of winter ?? In your mind anyway

ECM is poor for sure, no question of that. Having said that, it is only one run and see my comment above about model volatility at the moment. There was a great deal of this for a time last February and I sense we may well be in for a similar roller-coaster ride this month, until the models have properly got to grips with what effects, if any, the SSW has on the weather patterns in our corner of the world.

Amusingly on the 15th it was 0.3C warmer for London's 2M temperature than any of the other 51 members of the ensemble. That says to me that it's even less likely than usual to have got it right at that range...

The ECM ensembles continue to show a cooling trend in the 10-15 day range across the UK.

ECM De-Bilt and not even a hint of an easterly in there to the 21st. I personally prefer these as they are a useful tool for detecting easterlies and contrast well with milder westerlies and in their case moderated northerlies.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Thanks for posting.

Any news on the 11 to 15 day ensembles ?

Sorry all I needed  to do was click on it. Definitely getting there by the 21st.

That link's just a "scrape" from another site.

If you go to where they nicked their chart from, you can see the actual wind rose:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest

(That's the "southwest" region of the Netherlands, closer than De Bilt).

Excellent agreement there of a generally westerly flow up until the 17th or so, then an easterly cluster appears - very much in the minority, though.

That backs up what we're seeing from the models in general at the moment: any cold in the short- to mid-term is going to be in the wake of lows passing west-to-east, rather than from the east.

Thanks Darren. Appreciated. Duly bookmarked. 

I had a feeling this winter was going to be a write off for coldies, and so it is proving.

Agreed and backs-up UKM text (very persistent on the extended theme even if it’s been pushed back a bit to end of Jan).

More active Atlantic for a week or so but jet pushes further south (‘cool/cold zonal’) until the amplification is injected (possible P8 MJO response) to fire a ridge up to Iceland and bingo.

Simple isn’t it? One thing worth noting - the Arctic is much colder than last year so any Northerly flow will be potent.

Out to 264 and its a waiting game as we know, maybe the LP will drag colder air down

In a mad mad way I will laugh if we get absolutely nothing this Winter ( sustained cold and widespread snow) it will show that the weather does what it wants and really makes any LRF's / Model predictions of any kind JFF.

Martin

LP pulls the cold air across - not long to wait 

Yes we are going to reach the mid-point of the winter with virtually nobody having seen any snow.

The worry with the extended EPS are height rises now showing over Iberia.

While I respect your opinion, I think it is a bit soon to be making a statement like than on 6th January. Were this the last few days of February, I would be much more inclined to agree.

One could have just as easily said the same thing on this date last year, and we all know how last winter ended.