Op run just about the coldest in the latter stages (and mildest, at least in 850s) in the mid term.

Still plenty of interest but nothing to get wildly excited about yet. The colder cluster at the end does seem to be gaining ground though, with fewer mild stragglers.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Interesting reading this morning, some very sensible fact based comments and some very wishful thinking comments.  Many excellent posters who contribute sound comment based on the facts of what is being shown with a little license to interpret effect.  Overall the trend seems to be looking good for cold/snow lovers, but its the detail that eludes us right now, and that is how it is and always will be.

four days ago two weeks ahead were completely different to that same period now, four days ago today is exactly what was being forecast as is the weekend, beyond that it is just starting to take a shape that promise a point of certainty.

The SSW, currently doing its magic and holding steady the reversal for at least another 10 days, JC (and I do believe this bloke probably knows what he is talking about) is suggesting that due to other mitigating factors to complex and detailed to list here will likely impact Western Europe/UK around the 24th Jan.

The first effects are starting to appear soon after January 10th where ensemble forecasts from both global models ECMWF and GFS are in quite good agreement on a persisting extensive upper ridge / high pressure system over the northern Atlantic and the Arctic region. To the east and south, troughs will be meridionally pushed into Europe and result in much colder weather than average for a large part of our continent.

I did read somewhere on here over the last few days that the effects of an SSW are factored into models prior to and during the SSW. GEFS has been simulating a more classic   response by creating a high over the Artic region and bringing a colder airmass into Europe.  BTW the current cold outbreak in Eastern Europe/turkey has nothing to do with it.

Not every stratospheric warming event is the same, and each case has its own specific development and integration into the troposphere.  apparently, the best way to monitor the SSW impact is with ensemble forecasts.

So all looking good for cold /snow in the midterm and possibly beyond.

Edit. Spent ages writing it then blog closed. Cut and pasted to new one. 🤪

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Interesting reading this morning, some very sensible fact based comments and some very wishful thinking comments.  Many excellent posters who contribute sound comment based on the facts of what is being shown with a little license to interpret effect.  Overall the trend seems to be looking good for cold/snow lovers, but its the detail that eludes us right now, and that is how it is and always will be.

four days ago two weeks ahead were completely different to that same period now, four days ago today is exactly what was being forecast as is the weekend, beyond that it is just starting to take a shape that promise a point of certainty.

The SSW, currently doing its magic and holding steady the reversal for at least another 10 days, JC (and I do believe this bloke probably knows what he is talking about) is suggesting that due to other mitigating factors to complex and detailed to list here will likely impact Western Europe/UK around the 24th Jan.

The first effects are starting to appear soon after January 10th where ensemble forecasts from both global models ECMWF and GFS are in quite good agreement on a persisting extensive upper ridge / high pressure system over the northern Atlantic and the Arctic region. To the east and south, troughs will be meridionally pushed into Europe and result in much colder weather than average for a large part of our continent.

I did read somewhere on here over the last few days that the effects of an SSW are factored into models prior to and during the SSW. GEFS has been simulating a more classic   response by creating a high over the Artic region and bringing a colder airmass into Europe.  BTW the current cold outbreak in Eastern Europe/turkey has nothing to do with it.

Not every stratospheric warming event is the same, and each case has its own specific development and integration into the troposphere.  apparently, the best way to monitor the SSW impact is with ensemble forecasts.

So all looking good for cold /snow in the midterm and possibly beyond.

Edit. Spent ages writing it then blog closed. Cut and pasted to new one. 🤪

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

nice post Phil but one caveat- it’s looked good for cold for a number of weeks now in the mid to longer term but nothing has yet managed to materialise as we know. Crucial runs this weekend now. On a positive note GFS has for a while held out for some sort of mid month cold spell- I find this much derided model very good at picking up pattern changes so let’s wait and see. 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER