So the models are forecasting some arctic wide low anomalies (note 'Arctic -2.6C from average'). A 2.6 degree anomaly over a region as large as the arctic is not unusual at all, certainly not thread worthy. However a 2.6C degree negative anomaly over the arctic specifically is extremely rare. Climate change, overall, is usually too slow to notice on short time scales but global warming is not uniform at all; the arctic is warming extremely rapidly whereas the equatorial regions are barely warming at all. The consequence of this is that it is extremely unusual to see negative 2m anomalies across the arctic ocean. This will be the first time this has happened in, likely, years. It did happen briefly this Autumn for a week around September I think but it was an anomaly of something like -0.1C (which is still rare enough in of itself).

It may seem counterintuitive to think of a 0C anomaly to be rare when, by definition, it means 'average' but it really shows how much the average has changed since 1979-2000. The cold anomaly seems to be caused by a region of high pressure and clear skies over the arctic basin and deep cold core lows over high latitude land masses. Its pretty much the worst outcome in the arctic mid summer for sea ice when it brings high ice export and very high temperatures but during the winter the opposite is the case (although its a much rarer synoptic pattern in the winter).

But yeh to see blues over the entire arctic like this is a very rare event indeed. 

Its definitely not the 'warm arctic, cold continents' pattern you expect to see during an SSW either. 

Maybe we are starting to see the 'tweak' that 'low solar' brings to this new, seemingly annual now?, polar night jet vortex split/SSW?

If the strat is not able to manhandle the trop due to the 'low solar' propensity to High Pressure in the N.Atlantic?

I do think the spilling of the Arctic's guts is going to being about 3 regions of our hemisphere seeing a mid winter blast over the coming weeks?

I do not think the UK is one of them but Eastern europe ( and south into turkey/Greece/M.E.) will surely be one!!!

I kind of think this another opportunity to see just how much the 2012 ice low placed on the circulation of our hemisphere with post 07' patterns allowing for our winter of 09'/10 but the further drop in summer ice , in 2012, now means that pattern is shunted east of us toward eastern Germany/Poland etc?

I get the feeling our Atlantic based highs will keep on plunging any cold from the East to our south?

The extra heat being lost to space during the long arctic night was bound to run out or evaporate at some stage, especially with little or no backup left to replace it.. imo.

The oceans are almost done by now at 0.3 C anomalies.

The Northern hemispheric atmosphere is still losing rapidly, mostly from high latitude or arctic regions.

The Southern part is nearly finished with both.

Northern Pacific and Northern Atlantic oceans, the two main ports, are drained of heat by now with not much left to offer. imo.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_sstanom_1-day.png

But usually during the winter the positive anomalies increase, not the other way round. Its not unusual at all to see huge 5C positive anomaly spikes at this time of year. The current 'cold continent, cold arctic' pattern is extremely unusual. If we get a northerly blast it could be pretty intense!

Not much room for moderation?

Wouldn't the atlantic cold spot be more useful in a returning polar maritime? And jesus I don't want another 2014!

In the run up to Christmas, this GFS model predicted Arctic temps to fall negative by the end of December. Clearly this did not happen in reality.. but maybe it will this time. 

For now. Its forecast to plummet over the next few days. The GFS is now predicting an eventual -3.7C anomaly for the arctic.

Lost to space in the cold Arctic night.

The problem is where the backup heat might come from to fill the gap?

It might not be coming from the oceans.

As it seems there's not much left.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_sstanom_1-day.png