The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
31 December 2018 22:40:42

You all speak very good German!  

Brian will be deleting us all in the morning!  

Did I mention that the CET competition is now open for your predictions!!!  Everyone welcome.  Link to thread in my signature!  

Sorry Brian!  Delete my post but please not my account!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

David M Porter
31 December 2018 22:51:34

Hmmm, what's that I see appearing at the top of the charts in FI in the GFS 18z run? Looks suspiciously like an Arctic High to me!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
31 December 2018 22:53:42

I've seen worse winter charts than this!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=348&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

marco 79
31 December 2018 22:58:10
Nirvana charts appear on the Op...nice way to start 2019....could look at those all day long....esp if they come into range at T96!!!.....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
David M Porter
31 December 2018 22:58:46

It could well be that GFS 18z is out on something of a limb with its evolution towards the end of the run. However, I guess it is just as possible that in this run, it could be starting to pick up on the effects of the SSW which has been taking place over the past week or so.

We shall see what happens in the model runs over the coming days.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

ballamar
31 December 2018 23:06:52

It could well be that GFS 18z is out on something of a limb with its evolution towards the end of the run. However, I guess it is just as possible that in this run, it could be starting to pick up on the effects of the SSW which has been taking place over the past week or so.

We shall see what happens in the model runs over the coming days.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

the ENS set will be interesting, could be the start of a very interesting period of model watching 

White Meadows
31 December 2018 23:47:59
Happy New year all on Two 😍
Gandalf The White
01 January 2019 00:24:28

 

 

the ENS set will be interesting, could be the start of a very interesting period of model watching 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yes, they are: here's London

 

The purple run delivers an easterly. Not checked the others but plenty of support for colder weather.

 

Happy New Year!

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



David M Porter
01 January 2019 00:29:20

Happy New Year to all TWO members! Here's to some exciting model output to kick off 2019.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

scillydave
01 January 2019 00:33:46

Happy New Year TWO

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

White Meadows
01 January 2019 01:16:49
The worm has definitely turned for 2019:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Heavy Weather 2013
01 January 2019 01:58:21
I’ve just got home from new year and looked at the ensembles. After waiting the whole of Christmas it seems we may have sometimes to get excited about.

Still I could be drunk so will reserve judgement until tomorrow. HAPPY 17 NEW YEAR TWO

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

BJBlake
01 January 2019 03:21:56

Happy New Year to Two and all involved...

And so it begins...the eye candy comes home to the Op' with a real 1987 classic chart to set our pulses racing into 2019!

no doubt, it will now play cat and mouse with us for a few days, but the trend is most defiantly in the right direction for a proper winters tale.

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
01 January 2019 03:25:00

Auto- text fail 

I meant definitely not defiantly 

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Retron
01 January 2019 05:59:55
Happy New Year all!

Interesting to see there's still a wide old mix in the GEFS this morning. The parallel GFS brings -14C 850s in from the north and that has to be amongst the coldest northerly plunges I've ever seen!

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
01 January 2019 07:15:11

ECM brings a cool easterly and says Happy New Year. Looks a bit random and not necessarily long lived, but it would represent ‘a start’. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
01 January 2019 07:40:40

Happy New Year TWO people.  Lovely ECM and GFS Para this morning 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
01 January 2019 07:40:47
Happy New Year! The GFS op run hasn’t repeated last night’s eye candy but the parallel steps into the breach.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2019 07:52:38

Happy New Year to all on TWO!  Here’s to another great year of interesting weather!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

marco 79
01 January 2019 08:21:05
EC Op run goes quite cold at the end of its run....mean looks like its hopefully following....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
JACKO4EVER
01 January 2019 08:47:47
Happy new year all.

After last nights GFS pub run eye candy it’s all change again- however the Parallel isn’t without interest. Crucial runs in the next 24 to 48 hours for hints at next week

marting
01 January 2019 09:05:12
Happy New Year to all. Charts are showing plenty of NewYear interest now - this will hopefully be just the beginning of some good chart countdown😀🤞

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Gavin D
01 January 2019 09:09:33

It looks like the ECM Op got a bit drunk overnight and then by the time it got to the 9th of Jan it didn't know what it was doing

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.a4358eb290d8eabac116033fea4c1079.png

Retron
01 January 2019 09:17:18

It looks like the ECM Op got a bit drunk overnight and then by the time it got to the 9th of Jan it didn't know what it was doing

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.a4358eb290d8eabac116033fea4c1079.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

With respect, those charts aren't really much use - I know they're all the data that's available for free and it's nice of Brian to make them available, but they kind of give the wrong impression to people like yourself.

While we wait for more detailed charts to come out (via weather.us, who pay ECM for the data), we can see via the south-west Netherlands wind charts that there's an easterly cluster: a relatively small one, but it's been growing over the past few runs.

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest

Encouragingly (from a coldie point of view) the control run went the same way as the op.

Leysdown, north Kent
Shropshire
01 January 2019 09:31:03

Happy New Year All !

Well the SSW is underway and we are likely to see the NWP in a state of flux for a few days.

The MJO has moved out of the most unfavourable Phase 5 and I think we can look towards mid-January with some optimism.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

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