The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
29 December 2018 12:24:07

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

😱😱encouraging 

johncs2016
29 December 2018 13:21:51
If this currently ongoing SSW does nothing for the UK in terms of bringing any cold weather afterwards, does this mean that winter is now over?

After all, this month is already looking certain to go down as our mildest December since 2015 at least, as far as the CET is concerned.

In addition to that, we are already coming up to a third of the way through the winter and once we head into the New Year, we will then just be a couple of weeks away from being halfway through the winter.

This means that if those two weeks end up being every bit as mild as what December was, the temperature anomaly during the second half of the winter will need to be at least as big as what we have seen so far, but on the colder of average in order for this winter to just be average overall in terms of the temperatures.

This means that if we are to have any hopes of this still somehow, being a cold winter in the end, those changes which are required to produce such an outcome will really now, need to be getting on with it and at the moment, I'm really struggling to see where that change to colder weather is going to come from, if this doesn't come from the currently ongoing SSW.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tallyho_83
29 December 2018 13:55:06

If this currently ongoing SSW does nothing for the UK in terms of bringing any cold weather afterwards, does this mean that winter is now over?

After all, this month is already looking certain to go down as our mildest December since 2015 at least, as far as the CET is concerned.

In addition to that, we are already coming up to a third of the way through the winter and once we head into the New Year, we will then just be a couple of weeks away from being halfway through the winter.

This means that if those two weeks end up being every bit as mild as what December was, the temperature anomaly during the second half of the winter will need to be at least as big as what we have seen so far, but on the colder of average in order for this winter to just be average overall in terms of the temperatures.

This means that if we are to have any hopes of this still somehow, being a cold winter in the end, those changes which are required to produce such an outcome will really now, need to be getting on with it and at the moment, I'm really struggling to see where that change to colder weather is going to come from, if this doesn't come from the currently ongoing SSW.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Exactly - esp the fact that December has been so mild too!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

White Meadows
29 December 2018 14:20:18
Seems the push of cold is there for January, but not far south / west enough to affect our region. Ok CFS - it’s a broadscale and often crass tool but supports the delay of any cold into February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

White Meadows
29 December 2018 14:25:20
Turkey has been absolutely plastered in snow so far this winter. Another result of the QBO switching to an unfavourable mode for coldies here:

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

Chunky Pea
29 December 2018 14:27:40

True to my paranoid rantings yesterday, the ECM 15 dayer has backed away from showing a more unsettled, potentially stormy, outlook from the west and keeps the influence of high pressure over the UK and Ireland throughout (strongest over S. UK) As we now, by normal standards, should be entering peak storm season, this makes the outlook all the more depressing. Hot, lifeless Summer followed by a dull, lifeless Autumn which in turn has been followed so far by a dank, lifeless and utterly featureless Winter. 

Feck this climate. 

 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

White Meadows
29 December 2018 14:31:23

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

this is now supported by met office long range text update this afternoon. ‘Change to much colder conditions’ seems we are back into upgrade territory with confidence rising in the strat event playing ball. Apologies a little  OT

tallyho_83
29 December 2018 14:40:11

Seems the push of cold is there for January, but not far south / west enough to affect our region. Ok CFS - it’s a broadscale and often crass tool but supports the delay of any cold into February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

 

CFSv2 always over- cook temperatures! But they have got December above average temperatures right!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

nsrobins
29 December 2018 15:31:27

 

CFSv2 always over- cook temperatures! But they have got December above average temperatures right!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I wouldn’t use the CFSv2 temp anomalies for loo roll in the unlikely event I run out of torn pages of The Express. Poor record IMO.

 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
29 December 2018 15:36:01

 

I wouldn’t use the CFSv2 temp anomalies for loo roll in the unlikely event I run out of torn pages of The Express. Poor record IMO.

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
29 December 2018 15:40:14

 

I wouldn’t use the CFSv2 temp anomalies for loo roll in the unlikely event I run out of torn pages of The Express. Poor record IMO.

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

but to do that you’d need to print CFS v2 charts first. Would it be worth doing that? Wasting the ink? Otherwise you’d be rocking it unwiped.

Rob K
29 December 2018 15:44:38

AO going so positive after a SSW despite reversal of zonal winds@ 10hpa!

That being said - we have had some negativity in November as well as the run up to Xmas at we haven't seen anything remotely cold either so even a neg - AO will not guarantee colder weather. - Just goes to show!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

That shows a lot of uncertainty but a decent chance of the AO going more negative than it has been since that cold snap in late November, or even more than that.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
29 December 2018 15:54:04

A couple of minor tweaks to this would be nice 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Bertwhistle
29 December 2018 16:10:38

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Thanks for posting that Gavin; weeks 3 to 4 section in headlines (hasn't appeared in my quote here) says:

'..increased risk of snow and NE winds as low pressure sinks south."

Eyes up for that sinking LP. Could tropospheric wind pattern reversals bring this about without necessarily any significant N blocking beforehand, with pressure rising instead behind, as the low sinks?

Edit: it seems it does appear in the quote, after post is completed. Apologies.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

doctormog
29 December 2018 16:19:01
Taking things in the context that Meteogroup tweet, midweek 3-4 (17th of January) is still beyond the range of the ECM 15 day and GFS output.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Retron
29 December 2018 16:27:01
A remarkably high-pressure dominated 12z GFS. The pressure down here in Kent doesn't drop below 1030hPa all the way out to T+192 - and that's noteworthy, even if the weather is otherwise uneventful.
Leysdown, north Kent
Shropshire
29 December 2018 16:31:43

A remarkably high-pressure dominated 12z GFS. The pressure down here in Kent doesn't drop below 1030hPa all the way out to T+192 - and that's noteworthy, even if the weather is otherwise uneventful.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes looks like the sinker is being put back to day 9 on this run.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
29 December 2018 16:36:07

A remarkably high-pressure dominated 12z GFS. The pressure down here in Kent doesn't drop below 1030hPa all the way out to T+192 - and that's noteworthy, even if the weather is otherwise uneventful.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, and if things go according to the forecasts towards the latter part of the run low pressure should sink south giving unsettled and colder conditions to the north but then maybe hints of something else at the very end of the run.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Brian Gaze
29 December 2018 16:39:20

Extensive northern blocking on today's CMC 12z run.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Gavin D
29 December 2018 16:48:13

Looking at UKMO the colder air later next week won't hang around overly long

UW72-21.thumb.GIF.247068d73246ee8b5d07e18151b36719.GIFUW96-21.thumb.GIF.93514ba4d33af93d0af94c345baecb44.GIFUW120-21.thumb.GIF.eaa868312e7f22ccee172fa4fcf13d02.GIFUW144-21.thumb.GIF.552e14c72b27fec24ca7802647a59f7c.GIF

UW72-7.thumb.GIF.b3f90236207bf62f7c6ecdd5816691ee.GIFUW96-7.thumb.GIF.ac4981e7a3ff7024773377f6a08ea3bb.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.73231f14ddf83f3472d5f9626bd541f7.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.8fafa8d4b491e4e66682c5e0d81f539e.GIF

Retron
29 December 2018 16:52:02

Wow! What a run from the 12z GFS. Pressure at or above 1030 throughout - so mellow, calm and doubtless frosty conditions, followed by a real blast from the east with -10C 850s (and still above 1030!)

Best run of the winter from the GFS, for here at least.

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
29 December 2018 16:55:37

Good long fetch easterly from the GFS 12z. Wouldn't rule it out.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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White Meadows
29 December 2018 16:56:22

Extensive northern blocking on today's CMC 12z run.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

deary me. Is this what things have come to? 

White Meadows
29 December 2018 16:57:38

Good long fetch easterly from the GFS 12z. Wouldn't rule it out.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Surely an outlier Brian, but perhaps a growing trend none the less.

Retron
29 December 2018 16:58:50

Good long fetch easterly from the GFS 12z. Wouldn't rule it out.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, it does fit the general evolution you'd expect from reading the Met Office forecast - colder and less settled for a time in the north as the high declines southwards, followed by a push from the east. And it's not a "blink and you miss it" block, either, as it's building NW'wards at the end.

Considering a decent chunk of the 6z GEFS had a blocked and/or easterly outcome, it's not that much of a surprise to see the 12z op following that route.

Leysdown, north Kent

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