Indeed, the first T2M chart out of the gates this morning is here:

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png?u

Compared with last night's chart, the mean's dropped noticeably around the 4th, with last night's minority cold cluster now in the majority.

Not long until the UK charts become available to the public - should be good!

Meteociel release them about 7.50am . 

Yes means slightly deceptive this morning decent downward shift as you say.

Thanks - that's quicker than I expected! (If I look at the means, which is rare, I still use the old WZ links.. and they don't update until a fair bit later).

Weather.us is still crunching the data, but hopefully won't be too long until its charts are ready. I don't know how they can afford to offer a good chunk of the ECM 15-day EPS for free, but long may it continue!

ICON caught my eye this morning!

The 10 day mean and SD data sets are usually available from ECM between 7:30 and 8:00 for both the 00z and 12z cycles.

Merry Christmas all!

Off the scale as you say. However if we are to see a cold snap/spell the you would expect a "trend setter" at some point - Could that be the one?

I wonder what the opinion of the thread would be if the cluster was predominantly cold (~-10), and the OP churned out an off the scale mild run. I think the tension would crank up a knoch.

Personally I think the current data paints a poor picture for cold weather fans. It looks like the high pressure is going to build northwards for a time but the cold air will remain to our east or possibly briefly flirt with eastern England. In the longer term we burn up at least a week or two of mid winter as the high pressure sinks southeastwards. Having said that I would offer a 10% chance of a long fetch easterly become established in the short to medium term, so you could argue that is better than in many winters.

Despite a nice little upgrade this morning its difficult to argue with Brian's summary.  We're going to need a massive flip still from where we are now to get significant cold before mid January.  After that who knows. 

Agree. Its been a very long time since we've had deep mid winter cold spell and it looks likely we will have to wait again for another year.

Of course we may get a proper easterly later in the season like last year but it wont be as cold as it could be

Poor output this morning, with the ECM a considerable outlier later on - not that it's Det. run would be any good going forward to days 11 and 12.

Thankfully this poor output doesn't take us to the mid-Jan period, but we are now reaching that period when the Exeter updates could change for the worse.

While I don't disagree with this or anything else that has been said on this page, the only point I would add in here is that mid-January is still a rather a long way-off in terms of weather forecasting at the moment. As it is, we don't even reach the start of January for another five days and we all know that the model output can and sometimes does change considerably in rather less time than that.

Anyone who followed the model output regularly back in February this year will likely remember that it wasn't until around 10 days or so prior to the attack of the Beast that the models more or less fell into line about it actually coming and when it was likely to arrive. Before that, GFS and ECM were all over the place for a while and there were times when the op runs from both models suggested the Beast would not arrive at all.

two or three ensembles going cold post 300 hrs but not well supportted . Let's hope we see more of these in the coming days and weeks!!

I seem to remember Ian that in February, you predicted on more than one occasion that the MetO would drop their prediction of the Beast arriving at the end of that month at the time when it seemed that the models we have access to were going against that prediction. But they stuck behind that prediction fairly consistently just as they seem to be doing now, even if the timing is a little later than first indicated.

It has always been likely from all that I have read than any change to colder weather is not likely to arrive until sometime after New Year and the chances of it happening before the end of the Festive Season, as was mentioned a couple of weeks ago, were always going to be slim.

We get a renewed bout of Stratospheric warming too on 6th Jan again appearing over the Russia/Siberian side:

So let's hope for a cold wintry mid January lasting to end of January - been since Jan 2013 when we last saw some proper cold and snowy weather in January. 

Not an outlier, but it is in the colder part of the pack. Then again, last night's 12z was at the high end of the pack, so you can't read too much into it!

Here are the T2Ms for Reading, via weather.us. Click for full-size.

EDIT: And here are the 850s, at long last - they took forever to update!

As a reminder, these charts and ones for the rest of the UK can be found here:

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

think the opposite and the flip in output will be quick and possibly extreme - end of first week in Jan is key now

It might take another day or so to gather the evidence for SSW induced HLB from 7th Jan but I believe the jury is gathering and the preliminary case notes are being presented.

GFS 6z continues to fly the flag for the mildies! 

My view wrt Exeter is that a significant update today is unlikely. If anything it will be tomorrow or early next week.

06z is a horror show

Is there any reason for this expectation other than the vague wording of the Met Office long range forecasts suggesting a chance of cold weather from mid Jan?

Disappointing output at the moment it has to be said , one think I will say is the above chart wont give us much in the way of mild weather , the strong winds will make it feel quite chilly