sorry not seen the ENS yet assume there is a strong consensus now?

I don't think we need to panic just yet the SSW is due 1st Jan i believe . 2 weeks average trop response takes us to 14th. Even GFS only goes to the 12th today. 

Stav Danaos, untypically looking far ahead for a BBC weatherman, said last night that the indications were for a blocked scenario with frequent easterlies for the end of Jan and into Feb.

Please can you provide a link to the ensemble output from your crystal ball?

The ECM is certainly reading from a different script than the GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Probably more for the media thread but ... My wife came in from work this evening and mentioned that the weatherman on Radio 4 has suggested the prospects of severe wintery weather later in January.

ECM 144 says iceland High pressure, deep cold into Scandi & atlantic alligned ESE

Ian ^^ AO & NAO are already going negative for Jan, once again posting comments that factually within the models are incorrect.

The ECM is a slam dunk QTR to the SSW split. Not sure what the fuss is all about TBH -

We will see what it goes on to show - but there is nothing to suggest in any outlook that there will be a QTR.

The Strat boys seem to be pinning hopes now on the MJO progression - certainly Dutton & Fawkes tweets make one wonder if the METO outlook will change once the holiday period is over.

Its already in the outlook - ECM 168 trop vortex split alligns perfect to the strat split-

Day 7, continued MLB but the Atlantic Low is going to go over the top -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018122712/ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

It's going nowhere..

Heights starting build over Greenland and looking a little more split.

ECM 12z 192 seems fairly consistent with the 00z run.

The atlantic does seem to be struggling somewhat in terms of making proper inroads on the ECM compared to what has been indicated by GFS. When these two disagree with each other within the 10 day period, I don't think anything can be ruled in or out.

ECM by 216.

To illustrate what I'm talking about, here are the ECM and GFS charts at T+216:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Looks to me as though there is something of a stand-off developing between GFS and ECM, based on their respective runs today.

GFS wants to bring back the atlantic quickly but ECM seems rather more hesitant about this. Which one will be proved correct, one wonders?

Much better ECM again even at 240 the block is still there hanging on. 168h is fractions from a stunning chart. 

If only it were July...

Let's hope so - right now GFS models only go until 12th Jan - hopefully within 3-4 days time we should see some cracking FI eye candy cold charts too or some sort of response to this SSW.

The ECM troposheric charts are almost a carbon copy of the split- with High pressure wedged in the middle-

Zonal winds still on course to weaken/crash and go into reversal end of this month!?

there is enough differences to put doubt in any solution at the moment, usually means something is brewing. That could be relentless zonality or blocking!!

I might be guilty of stating the obvious but maybe too much focus here on the op runs.

The GEFS at 216h show options that are more (or less, depending on your personal agenda) favourable than the ECM.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=216

The spreads reflect the uncertainty. I think there's little point in looking beyond this - even with a crystal ball.

yes absolutely agree, something is afoot but it may not be quite what some are hoping for. However, with hints of some proposed negative values for AO and more importantly NAO there is much to play for. 

NOPE but the  Met which goes to 30 days don't see any hint of severe or very cold weather , so I think my comment was safe...…………...don't you 

And I am pretty sure they see a lot more data than you and I ………...unless you work for the Met and until they talk consistently of blocked and cold I stand by my comment which is currently accurate whereas  someone saying we will get severe or very cold in the next 3 or 4 weeks has nothing to back it up