Wrong thread but as you've mentioned the MetOffice forecast, this is what it says

"By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period."

The GFS 850 mean is falling to average by 10th January. I know January's have been mild of late but remember at this time of year that 850 average is -2C. It really doesn't take a lot from there to get into proper cold and there is absolutely no reason why that can't happen after the first week of January despite the current pessimism.

ECM mean 500 hPa pressure anomaly at d15 (Jan 11th). Post d10 theme remains consistent for now:

I refer you to the Media thread. The current MetO 30 day forecast is (typically) much more nuanced than you suggest. I was enquiring the source of your certainty - so unless you can provide it, I don't think your comment is either "safe" or "accurate" as you suggest.

The GEFS illustrate perfectly what Met Office have been predicting....Cooler, more mobile and more unsettled (westerly) for the first half of January. Any signals for deep cold are lacking. The north is more favoured for wintry stuff given this set up. 

Although the SSW sits in the background and cannot be ignored we must be aware that the colder easterly signal strongly suggested for early January from the earlier 16-30 day forecasts have been dropped.

There has been some very well balanced analysis recently with a healthy blend of optimism and pessimism.

Looks like only a very brief dip into negative territory before business as usual. 

The De Bilt ECM ensembles pick up our glancing northerly ( before the topple) fairly well. 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Whats more noteworthy is the met office literature downgraded the late jan cold from ‘much colder’ to ‘colder’ today. 

Slow progress but perhaps gradual clarity among the mooing cows. 

So from much colder

To colder

To 'cooler'? 

But don't forget that not all SSWs deliver blocking and not all blocking delivers cold to the British Isles.

Goodness me....look at that long fetch southwesterly feed.  Perhaps it will be all or nothing this winter.

It wasn't until several days after the SSW until we saw a change - this was 15th Feb 2018

Our last slice of Pizza on 19th Feb 2018

So We must wait another 4-5 days at least to see a change in the GFS models perhaps! I read that it's often the case that before we get and during and SSW it does increase the zonal winds and westerlies and can get very mild or warm even for a time? - This was the case during the last SSW at end of 1st week of Feb 2018. 

Maybe best to give yourself a 48 hour break from model watching as you’re showing signs of extreme fatigue. With all due respect. 

But under the influence of high pressure it's quite cold at the surface

No it isn't!

Just a slight amendment Peter

What a strong PV!

Model watching is great fun and was last year - with cold zonality and wet snow and sleet even before the SSW but this year nothing? I don't get it! no frost, no snow or even sleet!? Nothing of any interest in the models either ...! Sorry should have been in the moaning trend! But it's a joy to discuss the model output and we are looking for signs of something wintry but when there still isn't anything wintry to discuss ....!? It's time to retire to the winter moaning thread with Richard! Brian how are you feeling with your winter forecast?

All 13 models or at least 12 out of 13 went for a blocked January and Feb. 

That's a day later, Brian. 

Plus, it's still below average for eastern and central England; certainly not the temperatures you'd associate with a long-fetch south-westerly. Mild restricted to the far west and Scotland.

Interesting end to the 18z with two successive bursts of WAA setting up a reasonable mid-Atlantic block.

It's the day I posted my chart for, see:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1065662#post1065662

Sat 5th January.

The afternoon temps here:

Apologies, my error.

But still only average for the south-east on that chart, although on the mild side for the west and especially for Scotland.

Still, it all changes within a week on the 18z.

At lOng last the 18z GFS op run picks up on a northerly end of 2nd week of Jan and heights rise over Iceland and Greenland:

Let';s see if this is a start of a new trend!? and a trend towards colder weather. - I do expect more chopping and changing of course but it's the very beginning of something anyway! Could be all gone by tomorrow mornings 00z chart! But as for the 18z Op - if we were to run on a few more days heights would build across Iceland and strengthen over Greenland too - Just in time for cold weather mid Jan.