ECM is even more progressive than the GFS by day 8, we are heading towards the triumvirate of +PNA/AO/NAO 

I'd agree with that, certainly from the point of view of the current GFS ensembles. I would add the caveat that from about the 6th it really is just random  and could go cold or mild. No hints of any severe cold at that stage but hints at that range appear can appear between any runs.

Taking everything into account I would be keener on the second half of January.

Horror show for anyone looking for cold snowy weather in January - Looks like another x2 weeks of milder than average weather and well above uppers. We can only hope because come mid January we will be in middle of winter and soon days will be getting longer and sun stronger.

Met Office are still confident about colder weather mid month!? - Let's hope we see something of interest in the models soon....but as you mentioned along side with other members? - Lack of data? When will there be more data after today?

ECM has a lot of nothingness progged for 216 which shows uncertainty in the charts - would not be confident one way or another at the moment. Would give another 24 hours before any sort of confidence or consensus in pattern for further than 6 days

Which, statistically, means colder weather. Last Feb/March blizzards seems to be have been forgotten  

Would take the current model outlooks for an increase in westerlies over the current abomination. 

My guess is that there may be something closer to the usual amount of data tomorrow.

Not sure I'd class the GFS ens as a horror show for anyone wanting cold - they're not amazing by any stretch but in the same way some chilly charts get hyped up I think classing the current output as a horror show etc is being a tad overly dramatic.

There's still a few members going with decent retrogression and P17 shows what can happen even without really strong Northerly blocking - weak blocking plus southerly tracking jet = decent snow chances. Generally there's a reasonable number of members that manage to amplify the pattern enough at times to bring some cold air over the UK, albeit of no great duration.

Given the SSW, repeated hints of interruptions to the Atlantic flow even before the SSW and a few other markers, there's enough there to be optimistic about the charts imo. 

Just going by the charts and post our little settled spell, I'd say the chances of transient cold in an unsettled pattern is reasonably high, although the chances of more prolonged meaningful cold is currently very low. 

With the joker of the SSW being about to be played we may shake the setup enough to nudge things to a colder outcome or we may just reset the pieces and find we still end up unsettled, with a different route to zonal.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

at t168, the cold plunge in to the US fires up the jet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1

so we end up with the jet firing across west to east across UK, hence ridging more difficult.

The US guys have been talking this up for a few days and it certainly looks like coming to fruition.

As we know, unless a block sets-up to deflect the cyclogenesis - and there seems no sign of one, then that means zonality for us.

You seem intent on defending your erroneous view.  

How many balloons are launched over the Atlantic?

What upper atmosphere data is collected from satellites?

Balloons launched over the Atlantic? That would make for an interesting sight!

Would infrared satellite coverage not give at least an estimation of upper temps from clouds? Given that most cumuli hovers around the 850 hPa level while cirrus bands tend to be anywhere from 500 hPa upwards? 

Quite possibly, CP, but what about humidity, pressure, wind direction and strength and so on? There are many parameters besides temperature and the models, as you know, need many values to populate the starting position.

Yes, true GtW, though it is possible that regarding wind direction and strength, that this could also be estimated from frequent satellite image updates, though again, that is just speculation on my part. 

FWIW, this would be the surface data (N. Atlantic and fringes only) that would have probably been imputed into ECM model runs this evening: (Vedur)

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/synop/2018/12/26/synop_grunnkort.html

PMSL😂😂😂🙈

you couldn’t make it up, honestly......

GFS18z is running with a close to full data set tonight. There's still more shortage than overage but I've seen worse on other days of the year.

not defending anything (?), just stating the facts.

18z GFS run- Again shows very of cold let alone snow if that's what you're after.

I am really surprised to see the GFS racing the Atlantic winds in - as this was always forecast to be colder/blocked and drier by many models including our very own Met Office Glosea 5.

At the VERY end of FI on the latest 18Z gfs OP run (similar to 06z and 12z) - it looks as if there are some tentative signs that it may turn cooler but more cold zonality! BUT other than that the PV still remains really strong with little if any northern blocking coming about over Greenland/Iceland.

The polar vortex won't just disappear as if by magic, Tally. I fear you may be expecting the models to be showing changes a bit too soon as they won't yet be factoring in the effects of the SSW.

I was just simply analyzing the 18z chart because the charts are now up to 11th January 2019 and there is nothing cold or frosty on the horizon!

The Met Office has been consistent with colder weather by middle of the month and rest of month so I assume 3- 4 days time there should be some much colder runs deep into FI when the GFS models get toward and beyond 15th Jan. 

very +ve looking AO on the 18z... right out to the 11th Jan.  If we are to see some SSW impacts to enable the change mid-month, it would be good to get a sniff in the GEFS.  There are none.

A few days off model watching required now, so I'll be looking in again at the weekend, I think.