Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Very mild away from northern Scotland where it looks quite cold. Very unsettled with heavy rain on most or all days...

I've got Terry Scholey's December 2018 forecast this evening at 7pm.

Tomorrow it's the GWV Winter 2018/19 Forecast so watch out for it.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's Terry Scholey's December 2018 Forecast:  https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

EDIT 2: Here's the Winter 2018/19 Forecast: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

^^^^

Thanks Schmee 

Here's Terry Scholey's December 2018 forecast

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Quite an interesting read methinks... 

What are you dreaming of????

Thanks Gav- a clear summary. Smacks of 2015 slightly in the south with runs of 14C maxes forecast- except not at all true in the north. UK a real boundary zone.

^^^^^

Thanks Bert! 

After thirteen Winter update and three seasonal model round-up's here's the official Winter 2018/19 Forecast;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Will place this video on the Winter 2018/19 forecast page with a written summary anyone who can't watch the video this evening.

EDIT:

OK guys there's a typing error in the final written summary at the end of the Winter 2018/19 Forecast so just for clarity the forecast is predicting the winter to be 0.5C to 1C colder than 81-10 average (rather than 1.5 to 1c colder than average as it says in the summary)

Sorry guys.

Thanks Gavin.

'...at least it will be very mild' on Sunday and 'At least it will be mild' on Thursday - twice in one forecast!

First of all, it is interesting that you have mentioned that there is likely to be at least one brief cold snap during each of the winter months including this month. The reason for that because I have noticed in some of the short term ECMWF and GFS output which you have showed us in some of your recent daily videos that there is the possibility of a very brief northerly spell, possibly as early as next weekend. I am assume that this is therefore, a good example of what you were discussing there.

My second point is that whilst it would be good to get a cold winter, I am a concerned about the forecasts of a drier than average winter which I am seeing, even if that is interrupted at times by spells of mild and possibly, very wet weather. The reason for that is because there is still quite a large rainfall deficit which has built up throughout this year from the middle of the spring, onwards.

The result of this is that there are still quite a number of rivers and reservoirs which are running at a very low level. If the winter rainfall patterns were to go the way that you have indicated that they might, this would still be doing nothing to reduce that rainfall deficit overall and would instead, actually be slightly adding to that deficit even further. This means that once we got to next Spring, I would then be getting extremely concerned about the possibility of some serious water shortages in the not too distant future after that, especially if were then to go into a dry spell and another hot summer.

Now, I know that this isn't a concern just now. However, I am wondering whether or not, this would then start to become more of a concern once we got to the start of next spring if the winter was to pan out as forecast in terms of the overall rainfall patterns.

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

John, yes one concerning aspect about this Winter forecast is that that if it's colder it will also tend to be drier and that's now what we need after such a prolonged dry spell.

Have added the Winter 2018/19 Forecast to the Winter forecasts page and posted a written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

And that brings to an end another season of Winter updates/forecast

What will you do with your Sunday's now? 

Probably just wait until the start of your spring updates once you've had your wee break from that longer term stuff for a while.

Don't get too fixated on SSWs. You can have cold spells without a preceding SSW and, conversely, an SSW doesn't guarantee a cold spell - though it does seem to make one more likely.

My thanks to Gavin for all the work he's put into this. A repeat of 1984-5 or 1995-6 - two recent analogues among the top ten - would be very welcome. :)

Thanks my friend. 

John, I think myself and James will take December off (from the long range stuff) and then we'll be back with Spring updates in January.

One of the best seasonal forecasts I've ever read, simply because it explains clearly how the same forecasting tools could result in very different outcomes, depending on which aspects you choose to home in on. E.g. the top ten analogues suggest cold spells in Jan and Feb, but the top two alone would leave us expecting the opposite.

And I do like the way you've offered a kind of calibration point, in that unless Dec gives us a cold snap at some point, then we're less likely to get one in Jan or Feb either.

This is what a seasonal forecast should be: not a list of expected weather month-by-month, but an explanation of the various ways you calculate the winter might pan out overall. And for what reasons.

Great stuff!

It will certainly be interesting to see how this year pans out with quite a few forecasts picking up on the signal for potential cold - or a mild fest! 

‘Ladies and gentlemen, please place your bets now!’

Excellent Winter update Gavin, exciting winter in prospect ……………….I hope

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Awwwwwwwwww.... Thanks SFAB.  That is incredibly kind of you. I sometimes wonder if the long range updates/forecasts are a bit too technical.

I know we're really pushing the envelope with these Winter updates/forecasts but generally people seem to enjoy the way we do them  but it's always nice when you get that confirmed in a lovely reply like this.  

Definitely agree with the posts above. A very measured and well thought through forecast. No hype or exaggeration which you do see from some other forecasters. I like the way that Gavin explores all the options and highlights the uncertainties. In effect using probabilities without saying this explicitly. Gavin is also very open about his methodology which gets a big thumbs up from me.

A great effort Gavin through all the winter updates this year. You definitely deserve a break during December. It must have been very frustrating when you lost the first take of the winter forecast video.

While I don’t do forecasts, I entirely concur with Gavin’s analysis based on the available evidence. I think it could be a very interesting winter. Boring and average is most unlikely.