Personally I'm surprised GFS is modelling an Atlantic takeover so easily around Tuesday after cold air has started to stagnate over Scaninavia, N Sea etc. Is it really going to be that easy to budge at the surface, despite the energy from the southwest?

Not far off gales down here, either. Awful weather on the way by the looks of it!

It's not hopeless for winter fans, though. This morning's GEFS shows two distinct clusters in early December, a "mild wet and windy" cluster and a much colder, quieter cluster. It's this latter cluster which the Met Office seems to be favouring in their mid-range forecasts.

Oh dear.

14s and 15s possibly on offer a week today. At least it will be mild. 

Unfortunately the GFS is painting a wonderful picture if this was summer but not really what you want for early December....

Shocking, wouldn't surprise me to see a mild or very mild December now. 

Look on the positive side.  Giving less money to corrupt capitalist energy companies.  That is brilliant in of itself.

However, we can and do see Ensemble flips and it's way too early to write off the whole month just yet. A mobile westerly pattern seems set in stone for the foreseeable though.

Pessimist 

We could really do with the rain though, so no complaints from me.

As long as that semi permanent high over Central Europe remains in situ then any deep cold will remain a fantasy, the only saving grace is that the overall NH profile is primed for HLB down the line. Now will we see wave 2 activity continuing to stretch the PV and allow blocking to set up in a more favourable position is the question, but I’m still not convinced we'll see another SSW event this winter.

Not sure much has changed from yesterday looking through this morning's runs - just a few more pessimistic comments on the worst (for coldies) bits

Short term it's a mix of cool/chilly and milder weather, with the milder weather becoming more dominant as the HP bleeds away and opens us up to a big push of warmer air from the Atlantic.

Wednesday still looking windy although the core of the strong winds runs west past Ireland and NW Scotland on this run so not as bad as yesterday. Plenty of time for things to change re where the strongest winds are though

ECM is still keen on a big Artic high in it's FI section - the PV on it's Op run is nicely split and the high starts to spread it's influence a bit closer to our shores. We'd need a fair few things to go right for it to bring cold our way but it's a promising set up.

The GFS ens are pretty confident of a generally unsettled pattern to around the 3rd of Dec, at which point the scatter begins. As Darren mentioned there's a cluster of members that want HP to build, which by the end of the run allows for some decent setups.

So an unsettled first few days of December looks strongly favoured, thereafter plenty of uncertainty as to whether it stays unsettled.

Personally I thing there's enough hints in the outlook to have some optimism for this being a fairly brief unsettled spell but time will tell I guess

Seriously though, it has been grim (by anyone”s standards!). The outlook seems to be unsettled but given the medium range uncertainty and chopping and changing I’m not sure I would read too many signs into it one way or the other as regards to the portents for winter. 

OK some positivity from me like yesterday the GFS Para takes us to winter wonderland again but day 16 . Just a glimmer of hope.

I have a horrible feeling that once the mobile westerly dirge sets in, it will take a lot of stopping. Worry ing times ahead if you are snow lover.

At some point in 2019 I believe 

Not according to the recent Gav video , the models have flipped to a strong blocking signal