The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 November 2018 04:18:05

A finish around 8.2 seems possible to me, all depends upon those night time minima, which have held up (with the exception of the other night). My mind starts to turn to December, and there seem pretty firm indications that there will again be a month of two halves weather-wise.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Coincidentally, it’s currently 8.2c here, which is milder than the past few days, so we’re on the up again.  If December is going to be a month of two halves, let it be cold and snowy for the second half!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ARTzeman
24 November 2018 11:38:42

Met Office Hadley           8.6c.      Anomaly      1.6c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        8.05c     Anomaly      1.13c

Netweather                     8.69c     Anomaly       1.79c

Forest Town Mansfield      8.2c       Anomaly       0.72c

Peasedown St John          6.86       Anomaly      -0.85c

 

Mean of my 10  Stations   8.53c.    Anomaly      0.26c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
25 November 2018 11:30:44

Met Office Hadley       8.5c       Anomaly      1.4c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                    7.97c     Anomaly      1.04c

Netweather                 8.63c     Anomaly      1.74c 

Bordon                       8.2c       Anomaly       -1.66c      Hants

Canvey Island             9.1c       Anomaly       0.48c        Essex

Cheadle Hulme            8.9c       Anomaly       0.05c        Greater Manchester

Clevedon Weather        9.6c       Anomaly       0.44c        Somerset

Darwen                       8.7c       Anomaly       1.06c         Lancashire 

Mount Sorrel                8.1c       Anomaly       0.64c         Leicestershire

Forest Town Mansfield   8.0c       Anomaly       0.52c         Nottinghamshire

Peasedown St John       6.81c     Anomaly       -0.93c        N.E. Somerset

Trevikey Redruth           9.3c      Anomaly       -0.06c         Cornwall 

Mean of my 10 watched stations 8.42c.  Anomaly  0.15c.      All 10 using a 5-year average. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
26 November 2018 10:54:21

Met Office Hadley        8.4c       Anomaly       1.5c Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                     7.87c     Anomaly        0.95c

Netweather                  8.53c     Anomaly        1.63c

Bordon                        8.0c       Anomaly         -2.16c

Forest Town Mansfield   8.0c       Anomaly         0.52c

Peasedown St John       6.75c     Anomaly         -0.99c

Treviskey Redruth         8.9c       Anomaly         -0.46c.

 

Mean of my 10 stations   8.28c.   Anomaly       0.01c.        




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2018 06:29:41

It’s certainly going to be another above average month!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ARTzeman
27 November 2018 11:35:02

Met Office Hadley         8.2c.      Anomaly     1.4c. Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                      7.72c     Anomaly     0.80c

Netweather                   8.42c     Anomaly     1.53c

Clevedon Weather          9.3c      Anomaly     0.14c 

Forest Town Mansfield     7.8c      Anomaly     0.32c

Peasedown St John         6.68c    Anomaly      -1.06c

Treviskey Redruth           9.1c      Anomaly      0.26c.

Mean of 10 stations         8.16c    Anomaly      0.11c.               




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
28 November 2018 10:34:43

Met Office Hadley        8.1c       Anomaly      1.4c    Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     7.7c       Anomal        0.7c

Netweather                  8.31c     Anomaly       1.42c

Bordon                        8.0c       Anomaly        -2.16c

Hexam                        7.2c       Anomaly        0.44c

Forest Town Mansfield  7.8c       Anomaly        0.32c

Peasedown St John     6.27c   Anomaly    -1.47c

Mean of my 10 watched stations 8.17c  Anomaly  -0.1c             




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
29 November 2018 13:12:31

Met Office Hadley        8.2c.     Anomaly     1.5c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                    7.86c     Anomaly     0.94

Netweather                 8.43c     Anomaly     1.54c

Hexam                        7.4c      Anomaly      1.1c

Forest Town Mansfield  8.0c       Anomaly      0.54c

Peasedown St John   6.75c.   Anomaly     0.00c.

Mean of my 10       8.38c.  Anomaly   0.11c.        




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
30 November 2018 11:04:24

Met Office Hadley          8.3c.     Anomaly      1.7c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                       7.88c    Anomaly       0.6c

Netweather                    8.54c    Anomaly       1.63c

Canvey Island                9.0c      Anomaly        0.8c

Clevedon Weather          9.5c      Anomaly       0.34c

Forest Town Mansfield  8.0c      Anomaly     0.52c

Peasedown St John  6.89c     Anomaly    -0.85c     

Mean of 10 stations   8.36c    Anomaly    0.09c     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Whether Idle
30 November 2018 17:27:32

Anyone want to venture a final November prediction?  Id go for something like 8.15c


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2018 17:41:01
Mean here will be 6.8C (+0.5C)
30 November 2018 20:48:47

Here is my final CET calculation for November. Finishing number by my estimated calculations is 8.19C which is 1C above the 1981-2010 mean.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Hungry Tiger
30 November 2018 21:01:56

I should gett a few points for this one. As I recall - I went for 8.0C


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



01 December 2018 10:22:31

Final figure for November was a little higher than expected at 8.32C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was closest this month with a prediction of 8.29C

Bertwhistle
01 December 2018 12:22:10

Well done WI; just 3 hundredths out.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Whether Idle
01 December 2018 12:47:37

Well done WI; just 3 hundredths out.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Cheers Bert.  I think that's my first monthly win in the 3 years Ive been competing.

Seems a long time ago now but I won the annual competition in 2016 with a record cumulative error of 5.99 which is still under threat this year from Darren and Gusty.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
01 December 2018 13:29:51

Metcheck          7.2c.      Average for November

Netweather       8.51c           ''        ''      ''   

Bordon              8.2c      Anomaly     -1.96c        5 Year  Average used

Canvey Island    9.0c      Anomaly     0.38c                    ''

Cheadle Hulme   8.7c     Anomaly      0.15c                    ''

Clevedon Weather 9.0c   Anomaly     -0.16c                   ''

Darwen              8.6c     Anomaly     0.96c                    '' 

Hexam               7.4c     Anomaly     1.1c                      '' 

Mount Sorrel       8.2c     Anomaly     0.74c                   ''

Forest Town Mansfield 8.0c   Anomaly   0.52c                '' 

Peasedown St John 6.9c   Anomaly   -0.84c                   ''

Treviskey Redruth  9.3c   Anomaly    0.66c.                   ''

Mean of My Watched 10 Stations   8.33c   Anomaly   0.6c.   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Bolty
01 December 2018 20:31:02
The final average for November on my weather station was 8.1C. In recent years, it's pretty much identical to November 2014.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Whether Idle
02 December 2018 07:56:13

Final figure for November was a little higher than expected at 8.32C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Congratulations to Whether Idle who was closest this month with a prediction of 8.29C

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW and thanks for running this great competition. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Windy Willow
02 December 2018 09:15:32

Well done WI!! 

Thanks as always GW! Love this little bit of fun every month, even if it is largely just guess work from my end, after looking at the available information that you & others provide. 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2018 09:55:32

P

Well done WI!! 

Thanks as always GW! Love this little bit of fun every month, even if it is largely just guess work from my end, after looking at the available information that you & others provide. 

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 

Ditto Windy!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ARTzeman
02 December 2018 11:45:21

Met Office Hadley for November  8.3c.  Anomaly  1.8c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

08 December 2018 12:17:59

The very warm conditions returned in November after a three month absence.

November 2018 was the 21st warmest in the 360 year CET series.

It is also the first time we have recorded 8.3C in November in those 360 years.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Autumn ended ended up 0.25C above the 1981-2010 mean. 

I have included 1984 on the chart as we tracked that year very closely all through this Autumn.

UserPostedImage

08 December 2018 12:20:10

2018 CET competition - November update

No change at the top but the leaders now have a slightly smaller gap to third and fourth place.

Link to full size table TABLE

UserPostedImage

ARTzeman
08 December 2018 16:44:59

Thank you, GW for the charts. I am up TWO places.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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