Im reserving judgment for now. In isolation the 12z run did look like a horror show. But looking here http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png there is divergence from the 27 onwards. This suggests things are quite settled on the cold front just yet. Until I see the suite shift in line with the op, I will remain hopeful (hope casting maybe). 

If the op run had been that yellow/orange run this evening, we would have been rather happier I suspect.

 Joking aside, my view is we've had several Novembers where the pattern breaks just before the winter starts. What was looking likely suddenly becomes doubtful. It's too early to draw that conclusion this year but if in a week's time things are following current trends the emerging view on winter could be different. Wait and see is what I would say.

The rise in 850s coincides with a rise in pressure indicated by the drop in rain spikes... Could be frosty & foggy still.

Postage stamps don't look great for coldies. Possibly a signal for high pressure to build over the UK very late on. We've seen that sort of thing in a few Decembers since TWO started.

t+300
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=300&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

t+384
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=384&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

A strong trend now for the Atlantic to break through and height rises over Iberia, I think we will see a change in the METO text tomorrow.

That's a good link for an at-a-glance look at the prospects. Basically a sea of orange at the bottom, blue at the top = bad news for anything too wintry.

I guess it's worth remembering a little while ago the GFS ens were rock solid on a HP dominated outlook in FI - s*ds law says the more unsettled stuff will verify but if anyone feels in need of a straw to clutch the ens can always flip back

I think someone else mentioned it earlier but looking at the ens but the 27th is a point of interest - quite a few runs dip colder than the Op at that point, could be something to watch over the next couple of days

No denying though that the laden with promise charts are pretty scarce compared to a few days back but early days yet and whether we're in for a blip or a spell of unsettled stuff is still unknown (and as Doc mentioned, up North things look cooler relative to the average, which with some precip around could be good news for the ski centres).

..after an amazing cold spell (for some) at the end of winter, followed by an amazing summer (even though August was average) and a broken blocked pattern still in evidence since the SSW in February it's all too easy to hope that the coming winter might be something special..

Until recently the models showed that as a good possibility and then one by one the models started to change.

For myself and for many others on this site the thought of many months of grey mild drizzle can be hard to bare, but winter is still 9 days away and in Jan 87 the cold spell came with little notice. So let's see how things develop.

I seem to remember that you made similar comments about the MetO changing their outlook back in February when, at one stage, it looked as if the end of month beast from the east blast would not happen according to the models that we have access to.

In other words, don't count your chickens before they have hatched.

I haven't seen many of the BBC updates, but the MetO's daily updates for November have been pretty well spot-on. They went for a mild and unsettled first half of the month followed by a change to something a bit colder after mid-month. Given they are now talking about high pressure and colder weather returning around mid-December after a milder and more unsettled spell earlier in the month, perhaps it would be an idea not to dismiss their views out of hand and think that just because the model output we can see looks poor, there is no chance of cold returning anytime soon.

To sum up, while a repeat of December 2010 looks highly unlikely according to the models, the charts don't appear to be a carbon copy of this time in 2015 either.

This is good advice. The Atlantic has broken through a few times this autumn and ‘looks’ to be doing so again. Still 9 days of Autum left - in 9 days time we could be looking at further cold developing like you say.

Earlier, I mentioned that while some runs show cold, there is no need for people to panic just yet.

I think the Met wil drop the colder December outlook soon ECM and GFS both going the wrong way. Have a look at the latest BBC monthly its a shocker long term. 

Dont fool for it David

Aye common sense at last

Point taken. However, IIRC the BBC back in early November were not buying into the current colder spell at a time when the MetO were regularly mentioning it in their updates. Therefore, I wouldn't go placing all my eggs in the basket of the BBC updates, tbh.

Normally I'd agree with u PL but I see little to be optimistic about tonight especially with that kick in the teeth BBC forecast they're no mugs we shouldn't just dismiss it.

Will be very interesting to see the Met Office forecast over the next few days will they back track?

The ECM mean shows less cold air moving towards the UK how far north this gets remains uncertain

Further to the points I made earlier about what the MetO have said, I for one am not that surprised to see indications from the models of the atlantic coming back into play, at least for a time. The MetO has, for a number of days now, been taking about a possible change to a milder and more unsettled spell at the end of November/start of December so it could be that the models that we have access to are now starting to pick up on this.

As I said earlier, the MetO weren't far off the mark IMO about developments this month, so one can hope that there are also proved to be reasonably accurate with their thoughts for further into December.

If so can someone post some charts please- it is after all model output discussion 🤗

The BBC do not run a model - they’re a broadcasting company. They buy the service of MeteoGroup, who use the models available to everyone else (some at a price) and interpret the data accordingly - and with their bespoke graphics. The fact you get differences of opinion is not necessarily due to any individual model output, rather which ones they use and how they’re interpreted.

Dreadful output this morning for cold fans and the BBC monthly outlook says that there is 'unusally high confidence of SWerlies from the sub tropics for mid December' - which brings back the spectre of Dec 2015.

The change in the METO outlook will surely come today.

To add balance and optimism here, Matt Hugo on twitter mentions the fact the jet could well buckle to allow a rebuild of high pressure in time which the current GFS output shows the potential of.

Every cloud...

The ensembles are starting to show the dreaded wave pattern.

There is a solitary run delivering cold deep in FI and that’s it really.

None the less, never say never. We’ve seen the Atlantic kick into gear a couple of times during autumn but never really get going. Let’s hope that’s the case this time.

1, Yes it's going to turn milder but with much needed rain for some.

2, Your heating can go off..

3, With the mobile fluid setup I'm very confident that pressure will build in December and give a seasonal feel with a North or NW feed.