Yes a period of zonality looks certain now how long it lasts no one knows but we still have HLB mainly over the Canadian Arctic which gives me some hope going into December . Looks bleak though for at least 2 weeks 

What we're seeing now is the perfect illustration of why I always hold the TWO winter forecast back until the very end of the month. I think it's an open secret that many people were "anticipating" a cold or very cold winter, especially when GloSea backed away from a mild signal in its most recent publicly available update. 

Not sure if everyone here is aware that DWD is now incorporated into C3S. The latest 850 DJF anomaly chart:

The November Meteo France update is also available and is an input into C3S. The latest 850 DJF anomaly chart:

Some consistent interest around a week from now, with a northerly plunge being followed up by a left hook from the atlantic. Long way off, but often these battlegrounds can go either way, and can deliver snow at the same time to many.

With a consistent signal of blocking to the north, we could see the atlantic being forced to throw fronts along the south of England, in which case alot of us would remain in cold air.

One to watch i say.

The P3 06Z GEFS member shows what might happen in the unlikely event of a Scandy high being allowed to build, but its a very isolated option as of this morning.

Its been a few years since i have seen anomaly charts this side of xmas going neutral or neg.  All you need is a winter storm to sweep in and you have most of England and wales at 13*C+ for 2-3 days which skews the results.  

Im taking that as good news from my POV

I think Brian did mention that he wouldn't be surprised if there was a major' snowfall event somewhere in the UK most likely the north) - within the next 3 weeks. 

Decent cold building out to the east at T+150

The 7-day 2m air temperature anomaly looks fairly close to average for the majority a few areas are marginally above average & marginally below average but on the whole around average for most

The 2m air temperature trend is on the up for the UK and western Europe

ICON has finally come on board with most of the others now and shows the Atlantic low moving closer during next week

UKMO coming on board now and moves towards the others with the low edging closer 

On a really crappy trajectory, too. It'd be much better for the track to plough down the Channel then into Europe. Instead it takes that zonal-esque route to the north of the UK and toward Svalbard. 

Any optimism I had for a decent Yuletide wintry spell is dwindling fast. 

looks like a major low incoming that will blow the cobwebs away. but as always winter will come at the start of spring when its pointless...

summer upgrades winter downgrades    still early days. lots more models/charts to see

In a way I agree - because at least with zonal or zonality we do get colder air at the back edge of any fronts moving eastwards into France and the low countries - i/e We get colder north westerlies/northerlies etc but because they are not moving eastwards and many if not all our weather systems are coming up from the south we don't get the 'back edge north westerly or northerly if you get me, we get mild southerly winds instead!!

A fairly quite autumn could be about to change as GFS lines up the lows making a b line for the UK

If the model output is correct, we are going to be very unlucky in the UK. The situation is far from zonal, the NH is still extremely blocked with an amplified jet. The trouble is that we end up with a west based negative NAO, which allows the meandering jet to meander in the wrong place for UK cold - instead we get stuck in a rut on the wrong side of the flow.

Might make sod all difference to those wanting snow in the UK, but it is not zonal - in a zonal flow, it is mild across western Europe, often as far as the Urals.

Not quite. Technically it's zonal, as zonal just means broadly running from west to east - as those lows will do.

The jet meanwhile shows a longwave trough / Rossby wave becoming stuck to the west of us, over the Atlantic. Until that shifts we're stuck with lows being catapaulted at us...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=5&carte=1

Not a serious post, but it does show how the long-range models will make mugs out of all of us, as only quite recently we were talking about how promising everything looked. Up and down the garden path we go....

Output beginning to become horrific for coldies.  Fair play to the BBC who never bought into any cold spell of note.

It’s certainly not looking overly mild in places either. For example up here the outlook is cool and unsettled with lots of uncertainty in the later stages of the output

Nothing overly wintry away away from high ground but far from mild, wet and windy.

Further south the GFS mean is now going above zero as more and more milder runs creep into the ens

Yes, the Jet tells the story - it plunges to the south to our east and heads across Germany to Egypt - we need it to plunge to the south to our west. So we have a west based negative NAO and crap filtered our way by means of a meridional jet that is being unkind to those of us who like winter to be winter in the UK.