The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
18 November 2018 15:55:21
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/temperature/20181127-1800z.html 

So, based on today’s output Friday may be th peak of the “warmth” (although the GFS op run paints a slightly different picture).

The lack of sunshine for eastern parts is not something I am looking forward to. No frost, no sun, on the cool side of average at times but little wintriness.

There may well be a lack of sunshine over the coming days in the east but within the context of whether or not this month ends up being sunnier than average here, I don't think that this will actually matter in this part of the world. As I write (at the end of yet another sunny day), we now need just another 13.7 hours of sunshine between now and the end of this month in order for this month to end up being sunnier than average overall at Edinburgh Gogarbank.

With today being such a sunny day, some of that is likely to occur within the next hour which should then leave us needing a little bit under 13 hours of sunshine in order for us to get that sunnier than average month and there are still another 11 days left of this month for us to get that required total. This means that even if we do have a dull period coming up over the coming week, I don't think that we will have too much problems with getting that required total in the end and to me, it is whether a month as a whole ends up being sunnier than average overall which matters rather than the fact that a specific period within that month is going to be dull (which is usually going to be the case in any given month anyway).

Once this month goes down as being sunnier than average overall, this will then mean that the autumn as a whole will go down as being sunnier than average so in this part of the world anyway, we can't really have any complaints in that regard.

What I do have a complaint about though, is the lack of official air frosts during this month at any of my three local stations, especially since we actually did quite well on that front during October due to the cold snap which we got at the end of that month. This is supposed to be a rapidly cooling time of the year as we head towards the start of the meteorological winter which is now less than two weeks ago, so the fact that we had those frosts during October and then have had nothing at all on that front so far during this month is just ridiculous. Looking further ahead, I'm not really holding out much hope for that and with the start of the actual winter coming up, that does not look like a very good omen for that to me.

Because of that, I still wouldn't be surprised if have actually already "had" our winter with that coming in the shape of that cold snap which we got at the end of October.

EDIT:

As a result of some missing data for the botanic gardens in Edinburgh coming through over the last wee while, I can now confirm that an official air frost was recorded there during this morning at around 8am. However, this still doesn't take anything away from the fact that this is the only occasion so far during this month as I write, that an official air frost has been recorded at any of my three local stations.

 

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Saint Snow
19 November 2018 09:10:04

Beautiful late autumn day yesterday, with not one single cloud in the sky during the afternoon. I do like easterly flows. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Gavin D
19 November 2018 21:08:05
A vile night with heavy cold rain showers & the temp around 5c
picturesareme
19 November 2018 21:22:50

A vile night with heavy cold rain showers & the temp around 5c

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

More rain for those tasty wild mushrooms ;)

johncs2016
19 November 2018 21:34:54

A vile night with heavy cold rain showers & the temp around 5c

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes, I'm not sure that Richard from Aberdeen would have described that any differently.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Gavin D
20 November 2018 08:19:25

"Currently, troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies with below normal temperatures dominate Southern Europe with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and above normal temperatures across Northern Europe.  However over the next two weeks the pattern is predicted to flip with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and relatively mild temperatures across Southern and Central Europe with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and below normal temperatures across Northern Europe.  The United Kingdom (UK) will be on the border of the temperature divide throughout"

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ 

marco 79
20 November 2018 11:06:21
Just to highlight how dry its been in some parts of central / Nothern England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-derbyshire-46268818/ladybower-reservoir-s-low-water-reveals-drowned-village 


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Gavin D
20 November 2018 13:18:10
Another vile day with frequent heavy cold rain showers and a cold wind from the east

Tomorrow looks a little bit better as we swap the easterly wind for a lighter south easterly which will bring a less cold feel and more sunshine from the south

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