The Weather Outlook

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jhall
  • jhall
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 November 2018 11:14:02

Or more accurately, interesting pseudo-cycles of cold winters, but that would have lost the alliteration.

There seems to have been an apparent cycle of severe winters recurring approximately every 23 years ever since the late 19th century. It might just be a coincidence, or could it be linked to the double sunspot cycle?

Winter   CET    CET of coldest month 

1894-5  1.3   -1.8

1916-7  1.5     0.9  (March and April were also cold)

1939-40 1.4   -1.4

1962-3  -0.3   -2.1

1985-6   2.9   -1.1  (let down by a mild December)

2009-10  2.4   1.4

 

Whilst the last two instances have been less impressive, 2009-10 was still the coldest winter since 1978-9.

 

There's another seeming cycle of about 17 years:

Winter   CET    CET of coldest month 

 

1928-9   1.7    0.4

1946-7   1.2   -1.9

1962-3  -0.3   -2.1

1978-9   1.6   -0.4

1995-6   3.1    2.3

2012-3   3.8    3.2

 

Again the last two instances are much less impressive - but then winters in recent decades have been warmer than in the past generally.

 

Finally there has been an apparent cycle of cold Februaries with a period of about 8 years:

Year    CET 

1947   -1.9

1956   -0.2

1963   -0.7

1970    2.9 (a blot on the copybook - 1969 was 1.0 but to use that would be stretching too far I feel)

1979    1.2

1986   -1.1

At which point the cycle seems to end. But it's remarkable that it includes all the Februaries with a sub-zero CET subsequent to 1895.


Cranleigh, Surrey

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