00Z EC Clusters are split 27 and 24: The 27 show low pressure trying to slide under the block by next Sun/Mon, a finely balanced evolution. However, 24 are clustered around a more pronounced blocked to the N and NW with a NE'ly setting in by the 25th. Uncertainties continue.

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) November 19, 2018

Shame if this set up was blown away

High-pressure building over Spain again which is forcing the lows out in the Atlantic north which turns things that bit milder by early next week for the UK.

at +231 hp builds over Greenland or at least tries to and forces the LP systems south:

Ideally we need to see the ex-pats whining about rubbish weather on the Costas.

A long way off but looking very blocked from N. Pole view down, however you see this:

That's an incredible NH view. November might be game over for cold but December could be different with that much HLB going on and a defeated vortex.

Yes it ends zonal and very mild this 06z run but if you see the N. Hemisphere from the N., Pole down  - there is blocking over the Pole, Blocking over N. Canada and Blocking over Greenland and if this blocking over Greenland reaches the Arctic it would send these Siberian Arctic lows down our way!! NOT IN THIS RUN. But this just shows that there is colder weather to come with that N. Pole block, Around mid December after a milder blip 1st week of December!!

I've just added TWO ensemble charts to TWO. They can be viewed here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx

The charts available are the same as for the deterministic run.

The step back from anything overly cold continues once this cold snap clears from around Thursday

The 15-day graph 

Dartboard low approaching Ireland by next Tuesday on GFS P

GFS P has a deep low west of Ireland early next week and it hangs around for around a week before eventually shifting east giving a cooler spell after which it settles down with high pressure edging up from Europe

1st run of the 12z's complete and ICON has high pressure building over Spain and that sends the lows in the Atlantic towards the UK

The age-old problem for us.

If there is any positive from the latest runs for the end of the month, is that the general pattern should allow some time for the near Arctic to cool down sufficiently to maybe have a greater effect during any favourable patterns (if that is your thing) during the first part of December? Northerlies from a warm Arctic are as useless as polar sourced SW'lys, even in deep winter. 

Batten down the hatches if GEM were right

The general theme of a vigorous low screaming in from the west is consistent across most models, though. Ideally it will track a couple hundred miles south of where GEM (and others) are showing it.

Perhaps the GFS computer saw my post lol. Heights building very late stages to the NE.

Is it just me or do you get the feeling it’s going to be a long winter of ups and downs for model watchers? 😎

Up here there does seem to be some chance of chilly weather in the coming week to ten day period but I’m not taking it for granted.  I suspect some inland hills up here may do well for snow given the synoptics.

A reasonably consistent GFS mean at the moment for the 850's running close to the 0 line from around Friday onwards

Interesting to see the raw 12z GFS as per xcweather has snow over parts of southern England tomorrow! I suspect I'll see a few sopping wet flakes in the heavier showers.

https://xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

The mean here is completely pointless. A complete divergence within the ens