Latest output keeps the really cold weather away from the UK at the moment. So after a cold spell this week it turns back towards average. But huge uncertainty and we could see big changes in the coming days.

Currently the final November CET is predicted to be 8.01C which is well above average.

I have also shown the Autumn CET tracker below. This will finish above average if we finish at 8C.

Also included on the Autumn chart are 1982 and 1984. Temperatures this year have tracked both these years very closely since around 7th September. 

It’s still looking uncertain with the models not being able to make up their minds!  It’s interesting that the pattern so closely matches 1982 and 84.  I’m left wondering how those two years continued and whether this winter will follow the same pattern GW.  

1982 had a cool December but nothing of great note. January 1983 was exceptionally mild but February was very cold. So a mixed bag. Overall the winter was very slightly below average.

1984 had an average December but January 1985 was very cold. February and March were also very cold but not as cold as January. Average winter temperature was 2.7C so well below average.

Another point to note on 1984 is that it was close to a solar minimum whereas 1982 had quite high solar activity. So 1984 is a better match with this year. Winter 1984/5 also saw a transition from easterly to westerly QBO although it happened a bit later than this year. The QBO went positive in February whereas this year it will likely go positive this month. We did have La Nina conditions in 1984/5 so that is different to this year. The summer of 1984 was also quite warm at 16.3C. Not as warm as this year but a fair bit above average. So in many ways 1984 is a fairly good match to this year.

I am also still tracking 1822 closely. The temperatures for that year have tracked very close to those of 2018 since 21 September. The summer of 1822 was also warm (at least relative to typical conditions back then) with a mean of 16.0C. Sun spot activity was also very low. The November CET in 1822 was 8.2C which could be very similar to this year if really cold conditions don't set in over the 10 days. The winter of 1822 was perishing with 1.6C in December and -0.1C in January. A little less cold in February but still cold at 3.1C. 

Met Office Hadley        9.9c.     Anomaly       2.6c. Provisional to 17t.

Metcheck                     9.24c    Anomaly        2.32c

Netweather                  9.94c    Anomaly        3.05c

Clevedon Weather         11.0c    Anomaly       1.84c

Mansfield Weather         9.4c     Anomaly        1.92c

Peasedown St John        8.23c   Anomaly         0.49c

Mean of my 10              9.71c    Anomaly       1.44c.                             

You little tease!

A repeat would be phenomenal. 

But interesting information nonetheless and watching how the coming winter turns out could be exciting.  I don’t think we’ve quite cracked the pattern matching thing but that’s not to say it won’t be done. 

A week ago I was worried my estimate was looking way too high, as some stonking charts were popping up in the MO. Now I think it could be not too far off.

Met Office Hadley         9.8c.       Anomaly     2.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     9.11c      Anomaly      2.18c

Netweather                  9.79c      Anomaly      2.9c

Clevedon Weather         10.7c     Anomaly       1.54c

Hexam                          8.6c      Anomaly       2.3c

Mansfield Weather          9.3c      Anomaly       1.82c

Peasedown St John         8.03c    Anomaly       0.29c

Treviskey Redruth           10.4c.   Anomaly       1.04c.

Mean of my 10               9.57c    Anomaly        1.04c   

Something in the region of 8.5c does not look an unreasonable guideline still.

Met Office Hadley         9.6c.    Anomaly     2.6c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                      8.91c    Anomaly    1.99c

Netweather                   9.63c    Anomaly     1.99c

Mansfield Weather          9.1c     Anomaly      1.64c

Peasedown St John         7.83c   Anomaly      0.09c

Treviskey Redruth           10.0c   Anomaly      0.64c.

Mean of my 10                9.36c   Anomaly      1.36c.. 

Met Office Hadley No update. Maybe around 9.3c....

Metcheck                     8.63c.       Anomaly    1.71c. 

Netweather                  9.39c        Anomaly     2.5c

Clevedon Weather        10.3c         Anomaly     1.14c

Mount Sorrel                8.8c         Anomaly      1.34c

Mansfield  Weather        8.8c        Anomaly       1.32c

Peasedown St John        7.4c         Anomaly      0.2c

Mean of my 10              9.15c.      Anomaly      0.88c.

No update from Met Office Hadley.    9.1c.????? 

Metcheck              8.31c.    Anomaly    1.39c

Netweather           9.11c.    Anomaly     2.2c

Forest Town Mansfield  8.4c.  Anomaly   0.92c

Peasedown St John  7.28c.  Anomaly  -0.46c

Mean of my 10 stations 8.73c. Anomaly 0.46c.  

Just 1.42C from the CET today after a very cold night last night. The November CET currently stands at 8.64C by my calculations.

The CET will continue to fall more slowly now before levelling off at the end of the month.

Current estimate for the final November CET is 8.13C

hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html   

New link for CET.

Met Office       8.8c    Anomaly    1.8c. Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck         8.12    Anomaly    1.20c

Netweather      8.82c   Anomaly    1.93c

Forest Town Mansfield 8.3c.  Anomaly   0.82c

Peasedown St John  7.02c.   Anomaly   -0.72c

Mean of my 10 8.61c  Anomaly  0.34c.     

they've gone from a .gov.uk to a .com

I thought they were still part of the civil service - are they completely separate now ?

I've noticed that it's not even a secure site either. For security reasons, the URL on just about every site nowadays will begin with https rather than just http, which then shows that it is being hosted as a secure website. I therefore find it unbelievable that a major organisation such as the Met Office can be actually fail to go down that same route.

Really displeased with the weather at the moment; this chilly spell could have done a good amount more had the trough not positioned exactly as it did. It'd also have been less dreary down here! Still, at least last weekend was enjoyable out of the wind.

Something does seem to have seriously gone awry with our weather patterns this year though (exceptional stratospheric events + Arctic amplification the likely culprits), as we experience yet another month of unusually few westerlies - hence it will be a surprising result if the CET finishes in the 8s, despite those crazy-mild model runs that we were seeing. Worth noting that in the end it didn't manage to be quite as balmy as what GFS in particular was depicting, at least by day.

December's not displaying any clear signals for one weather type to dominate (after a mild start perhaps) - looks likely to feature more considerable temp swings. Possibly more so than this month is now on course to have managed, what with the chilly spell having been so stunted.

I believe this little game of ours will (assuming continuation; up to GW or anyone he hands the reigns over to) become even more challenging in the years to come as 'extremification' continues to build... though this may not go on for too many more years, as there is some emerging evidence that lowering of air pollution in the mid-latitudes may increase the warming in these areas and reduce the magnitude of the Arctic amplification via lessened temperature differential.

Yep - we appear to have inadvertently been shielding ourselves from some of the warming associated with the Greenhouse effect! 

I've had this link bookmarked for at least a year without even realising and it updates legitimately. 

Seeing more and more of these not secure sites these days. I gather, though, that it should be alright provided you don't enter any personal details somewhere. Not absolutely sure, mind! 

I have noticed though, that the old link (which is an https and .gov.uk site) still works although I'm not sure of course, whether or not it will continue to do so in the longer term.

I got the link from Netweather ... 

As for the weather, it’s been a totally grey, murky and cold day here and I think GW’s CET estimate will be spot on as usual! 

My monthly running mean has taken quite a plunge in the past week. Its levelled off today though. 

15th - 11.00c

16th - 10.87c

17th - 10.74c

18th - 10.64c

19th - 10.47c

20th - 10.18c

21st -  9.85c

22nd - 9.53c

23rd - Provisional 9.50c

A finish around 8.2 seems possible to me, all depends upon those night time minima, which have held up (with the exception of the other night). My mind starts to turn to December, and there seem pretty firm indications that there will again be a month of two halves weather-wise.