Doesn't look as cold this morning

00z

06z GFS is building pressure over Spain which in turn is forcing the low in the Atlantic further north 

06z

00z

Yup - in this case, 10% of the members have a high above 41F and 10% have a low below 39F.

You can switch to Celsius by clicking the little cog icon btw.

After the cold snap it looks like temps recover by the end of the week longer term more milder runs seem to be appearing with the mean not dropping all that low

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

ICON 12z similar to GFS we need to look towards Spain where pressure is building which is forcing the low/s in the Atlantic north 

It certainly wouldn't be really mild but at the same time never getting really cold

Decent 144 from UKMO

Looking at the messy synoptics on the 12z GFS op run I would expect a lot of scatter in the ensemble data after the first five or six days (again).

Yes. I do get the feeling that what we are seeing isn’t quite normal. It’s one of those situations that could switch dramatically. 

That low to the west of Ireland is much deeper and closer on tonights GFS P compared to the 06z

12z

06z

Plenty of interest IMO. I'd not be at all surprised to see a major snow event in the next 3 weeks, obviously more likely in the northern half of the UK.

Not often you see the ECM Op and mean so close through-out on the 850's

If GFS is, as it tends to, overplaying LP development I'd expect it to move back from the LP pushing milder air over the country (although Scotland has been on the cooler side of the boundary for most of the GFS runs recently).

More runs needed and all that.

Yes the much hyped "cold spell" has taken a severe watering down in the last week, and is now an enfeebled cool snap.

Depends on whether you were looking at the models or listening to the hype I guess

The initial easterly was only ever going to bring chilly weather relative to the time of year and cold in comparison to the mildness of the last couple of weeks. (I'd happily bet that the CET for the next 4-5 days will be in the chilly category, relative to average. One set of computer forecasts for a warm location on the south coast doesn't change that)

The potential for 'cold' weather was always shown as being after the initial cool easterly. It's still arguably after that, but has reduced from being a real possibility to something of an outsider.

IMO often chilly with some milder interludes is now the most likely outcome with the balance of chilly to mild tilted depending on where in the country you are. Further North more chilly than mild, down south more chance of milder being a bit more dominant although that really depends on how strong the Atlantic is versus what looks like fairly weak Northern blocking. 

Why NO ISO BAR AT +111 ON 18Z GFF OP RUN?

There was.

Pretty Meh output this morning certainly compared to a few days ago. No significant cold in November now looks a safe bet.

After that opinion differs but the idea of either a potent Northerly or a new Scandy High is just that - an idea - with the GEFS especially shifting away again from colder options. Indeed we’re just as likely to get very mild southerlies as freezing NElys longer term.

I would not call it "ordinary" the hemispheric pattern is extremely unusual with the PV shredded and HP cells popping up in unexpected places.

What is ordinary, is that whatever happens, the UK weather appears reluctant to give us some extraordinary weather arising out of that *unless it becomes extraordinarily mild of course, with long fetch southerlies.

Typical to the UK, nothing extreme

Following on from last nights 12z the 00z ECM op and mean are very close again for the 850's through-out