quite agree, also it’s not a bad thing to have some Atlantic influence- some of the most epic of British snowfalls have occurred under such conditions. What isn’t on offer however is a zonal muck fest, so whatever happens it will be of interest I’m sure. 

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim 

If what I’m seeing on other sites is correct, it appears the models are having a tricky time modelling the EPO in the Pacific which is having downstream implications.

This particular story has plenty of rope to unwind yet.

A SE'ly flow from around mid next week does seem to be getting more support now

ICON 12z

Not a bad chart from UKMO

A couple of things to note from the 12z just out

1.  Mid week feature running up from the continent appears to carry a little more interest in it, with seemingly more of a injection of colder air with it, not saying it will be beast from the east, far from it... but I wouldnt be surprised if we see a few local upgrades, and not just to higher ground.  We could see snow from this feature -defo one to watch

2. There has been a good degree of flip flopping in the charts recently with regards to FI and will northern blocking sustain or will the atlantic win out... well  on this run seemingly chooses the path of the atlantic winning out... but for how long?  It seems a bit of a short affair with the atlantic systems wanting to actually setup northern blocking in their wake again.... interesting sustainable signal this.  the occasional injection of atlantic is much better than sitting under a HP cell for weeks on end with all the coldy goodness going to greece and Turkey.

3. A continued signal for Mediterranean LP systems... remember years gone by with the dreaded mid Atlantic HP, or the stubborn Euro HP.  No sign (yet of anything like this...

ECM rolling out - t+168 looks promising:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

nearly a full climb down from the ECM to the UKMO & FV3 blend with greenland heights @216-

Ian notice the trough kicked east into the North sea...

After a cold few days, the ECM mean on the 850's recovers to hover on or slightly above the 0 line

..... indeed. There is interest in longer term charts but even with all of the new computing power we rarely get an accurate forecast past 5 days and not always three!! This is because the charts are broadly unchanged but there are sufficient subtle differences to produce different weather. The S.E has been a point in case this week. At the start of the week it was predicted to be a strong southerly flow (which it was) with temperatures in the high teens - and that was what the charts still showed all the time. What they hadn't predicted was that there would be thick cloud cover and incessant drizzle for two days. At this time of year it knocked the temperatures back by 8C and gave dire weather as opposed to the expected Indian Summer conditions.

Just interested, but what would that give rise to in relation to 2mTs in your opinion, given the likely synoptics being shown in the ENS of many models?

GFS 18z Op at T192.

Some cold looking runs in the 18z longer-term.  These are for London.

GFS 0z shows little change at T144.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I hope this faux pas from the models doesn’t set a precedent for the rest of winter this year.

Just as all hope seemed lost ECM looks very good at 192h 

Despite the fact their is nearly a difference of 20c between some of the ensemble runs and lots of below average runs in their ,but nevermind that.

A fairly blocked pattern shown on the ECM 0z throughout, ending on this at T240!

ECM cold by day 10 wouldn't take much to go very cold from where it is .Good run north and east Europe into the freezer. 

Just look up the T2Ms directly - search for your location after clicking the link below.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

(Side note: why do people still post the various crummy ECM ensembles when we have access to the real McCoy via Weather.us?)

Agree- I was quite pleased to see the persistence of at least a degree of blocking around 60N, in both the ECM and the GFS. The GFS op runs warmer towards the end in the S of the UK, the control staying low- although the Op has most of the pack with it in the ENS.

The next 5/6 days look set now, then guesswork.

So despite the backtrack (for now) of GFS, uncertainty remains.

Agreed, you mentioned this last year.

What’s also handy is the time stamp.

Just a quick question Darren regarding those they show this for my location on Tue,

Tuesday, Nov the 20th at 12:00 

— Main run: 41 °F

— Ensemble mean:  40 °F

Am I right in assuming the 90% percentile means 90% of its total members?.