http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html 

I think Steve is referring to the fact that the more recent day has NOGAPS as the highest. That’s not really because its verification has improved rather the others have dropped.

Re. the models generally the next few days look as they have done for a while. Beyond that (in “FI”) things are shifting around a bit and will probably look a bit different over the next few runs.

Nice timing for new thread, Brian. It's dropped all the cold ramping and we can get back to a rational view of FI

So: cool for a bit then average temps for the time of year. Low pressure tending to stick around to the S or SW implying that S Britain will see some rain from time to time (that'll be a change) and just the hope of an easterly, but only hope, to bring in some colder air.

Indeed. It is very rare to get the OP projection from 10 days to verify, even by something broadly similar let alone closely resembling. That said, GFS did very well for early next week with the initial Easterly and EC looks like it’s on the money with the ‘sagging’ block from next weekend. 

There is no ‘defeat’ in my mind - just continued uncertainty. In other words, the much colder options have as much chance of reappearing in subsequent output as the milder ones. 

On the running monthly mean yes but Steve was referring to the most recent day where, as I stated, the others have taken a dive leaving NOGAPS “in the lead” - for one day only probably! The wider picture still shows it trailing the main models and I suspect that I suspect unlikely to change.

Edit: Yes, you’re absolutely right Neil, the colder runs could well come back in the next few updates, or indeed it could go they other way and they could disappear altogether. It’s not a defeat it’s just the variation of output that we have come to expect over the years.

The ECM 192 demonstrates perfectly how the UK can remain mild under a -ve NAO.

It also demonstrates the frailties of making forecast assumptions based on 500Hpa anomoly.

So where has this gone wrong anyone?

I wonder if that cold blast in North America off the eastern seaboard which brought heavy snow in NYC has blasted up the jet and affected our weather patterns? Or reduced the longevity or cold air.

Let's hope this milder spell end of next week is short lived.

Back from Budapest today and were are now having daytime maxes of +5c cold air arriving here today after week of 17 or 18c by day with sun.

Nothing has “gone wrong”. Charts beyond day 6 are statistically significantly less reliable than those before then. Changes can and regularly do happen.

Oh Doc....it has 

The fact that so many of us are back here hitting f5 every 30 mins suggests something (was) (is) (was) in the offing .

It has gone wrong if you are naive enough to believe that charts at 7-15 days out will usually verify.  

They still could.

They may not.

Stats and experience suggest that changes will nearly always occur at that range. It’s the norm not things going wrong.

Usually do pretty well for frosty nights here under an easterly flow at this time of year, yet the ECM this morn has the absolute minima at only 2.0c during this upcoming spell (for here) Nevertheless, a fairly pleasant, crispy late Autumn spell coming up. 

It has gone wrong though hasn't it?

Now you are taking the mickey. The FI charts have changed yes. They frequently do and probably will continue to do so.

Anyway back to the actual output and it’s safe to say that the shorter range output has been quite consistent in the broad general pattern and this continues on the 06z GFS op run. Interesting synoptics for autumn http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_75_1.png 

I think the genuinely cold charts with always FI,and we've all been around long enough no to put to much faith in them other than for trend purposes. 

The trend of the last few runs is for the Atlantic to come through the middle and raised heights over Europe, which contrasts with the current METO outlook.

GFS06z (which isn't initiated with the GFS 00z t+6 hours chart before some clown suggests that again) looks more interesting for cold rampers.

The ground conditions and overall outlook seem to be very consistent: Becoming cooler with an easterly influence. Not quite cold enough for snow, and perhaps not much in the way of frost either. But seasonal and overall plenty of dry weather.

Ive not seen anything to get massively excited about - and believe this is nothin more than actually very seasonal weather for end of November. Perhaps we might geta few foggy nights if we locate the HP cell over the UK. Lets all calm down and hope that there is something else brewing behind the initial seasonal delivery.

Great to see we have an easterly sorted for next week, but after that it all goes a bit no mans land.

more of interest for coldies is the final couple of frames on ECM 00z - the whole northern hemisphere from Canada to Russia looks very inverted wrt usual pressure systems and primed for potential continued blocking going into December

Some cold runs amongst the GEFS , not without interest that's for sure 

Good Morning and Afternoon to all.

There still looks likely to be some disagreement as it is on today’s GFS 00z and ECMWF 00z run, I think the ECMWF is much better from T 168 to T 240 hours.

It is looking less cold by Saturday and Sunday from what I can see on the GFS and ECMWF.

Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon looks quite cold with some rain sleet and hill snow showers and lengthy sunny spells.

Winds from the SE should bring less cold air by Wednesday night and more widely during Thursday and Friday but it will remain at average or slightly below.

The GFS is more interesting in bringing in some milder slightly above average temperatures and some unsettled weather while the ECMWF has more packed areas of Low Pressure with NW Atlantic and NE Canada to Greenland remaining with Blocking area of High Pressure.

GFS is having to deal with a cold and snowy Newfoundland Low and another Low Pressure that bring milder air into it and they are send SE across the NW Atlantic, The ECMWF model on the other hand does a good job of mixing these Low’s less and instead they are sent under the blocking High pressure that is slow to move.

It depends what angle the atlantic comes through

GEM / UKMO / GFSP / NAVGEM all have that energy moving ESE which is fine 

note the T2Ms now on ECM clusters-

I think we have weathered the storm..