A lot of uncertainty tonight. CMC 12z looks the pick for cold weather.  

ECM op and mean starting to come in line now at t144 about time!

At T+240 the ECM ensemble mean chart looks a lot better than the operational run: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

However it's still a downgrade from the 0Z ECM ensemble mean chart.

I'm just pleased about the idea of high pressure looking like already taking up a good chunk of this Autumn so far this season.

Looks like we are losing the battle tonight. It's one of those times when us amateurs look like idiots all the models we get to see at one point were going cold but the Pros never really bought into it then suddenly the models flip mild again. What ever the Pros get to see must be so superior to what we get I wonder why we bother at all.

The trend for the coldest weather to slip into central / south-eastern Europe after the initial cool easterly continues this evening. 

Valid 

Looks like we have missed out this time around BUT its only Nov 16th...………..Winter is yet to come 

ECM 12z op a significant outlier towards the end of its run.

Is it safe to mention 1962 yet?..... asking for a friend. 

Fcuk off, Matty,

You have no friends.

Good to see you posting again.

Agree though.  Nice to see you back Matty!  

Changes in the GEFS bubbling up again and becoming clearing now, as I hinted could be the case the other day

Interesting that over S England today (Saturday) the forecast midday 850temps are higher in places than the surface temps.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_12_mslp850.png?cb=169

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_12_uk2mtmp.png?cb=700

Fascinating model watching this morning. The late November 'potential very cold spell' could be in trouble.

It appears to me that height rises over the Azores at 144 hours have linked with high pressure to our north. As a result the jet is struggling to break through and is trying to force through over western Greenland. The GFS appears to surrender to the attack by transferring its heights via a negatively tilted ridge towards the Balkans.

Outcome ? The coldest air is initially locked away far to our NE over Siberia and can't move SW'wards, the jet forces through and any hopes of a significant late November cold spell is dust.

UKMO and GEM on the other hand maintain the block strongly to our north, the jet is allowed drift eastwards on a southerly path keeping the block to our north buoyant. The ridge does not become elongated and tilted meaning that there is opportunity for that deep cold pool to our NE to find its way to our shores...eventually.

What happens at 144 hours is key. 

Looking like a 3 day cold snap to me Steve, with near normal to possibly milder than average conditions returning later for the last week.

Here's the 12z 2mT ensemble for the midlands:

I can't get the GEM tab to open this morning; and after clicking it, the fax charts tab won't open (but will if I don't click GEM first). 

Anyone know why?

Edit: can access GEM via model launcher instead. 

00z run completed a good while ago and is working fine here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx

PS: What device / browser are you using?

NAVGEM is first - I have never seen that before..

Have you got a link? I only have the one below which has ECM in the lead but it starts from October 16th and I can't see an option to filter by date.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

At first we are sceptical because we know how it can and does change, then when two or three models start to show the same we get interested. After three to four days we start to believe.... Only to be let down on day five,six...FI has a good meaning!!!

Perhaps the Pros are just less inclined to countenance seasonally/climatically anomalous output, and more disciplined with their use of language as a result.

We are seasoned here and have grown to expect this sort of thing. Its what makes TWO such a great place. No drama, the correct measure of hope and optimism, great analysis along the way and all very gracious in defeat.