Hello folks,

Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead (video and traditional written Thoughts)

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Starting showery but becoming dry and very mild or even warm by the second half of the week.

Watch out for fog and cooler air by next weekend?

Have got the eleventh Winter 2018/19 Update coming up at GWV tomorrow.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the Eleventh Winter 2018/19 Update: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Long awaited Easterlies are going to be plentiful......Thank You for your thoughts. Any snow days due.... 

Cheers Gav , might start to see some interesting charts as we head towards the last third of November 

Thanks Gavin.

^^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Here's the Eleventh Winter 2018/19 Update

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

We start with more October analogues and finish with October pattern matches + ENSO, SST's, Eurasian snow cover, solar activity and more...

Will place in the Winter updates page with a written summary for anyone who can't watch the video this evening.

Cheers Gav

The post 1950 pattern matching for the winter was v interesting 

Gav- I have just sat and watched all of this and it was a real treat; great detail but also breadth (I know you always get that balance right). Particularly interested in the pattern matching with heights between October and winter. 

Thanks.

Thanks both!  You are very, very kind.

Those October pattern matches after 1950 were  weren't they? 

Have added the eleventh Winter 2018/19 update to the Winter 18/19 updates page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Considering we are in the Modern Era …………...yes they were .

Gav- I also found among the earlier animations/ charts the SST anomalies broadly in line with the Gulf Stream / NA drift quite interesting. There seemed to be a general warmer-than-average drift but it seemed to have pockmarks of blue in it. Also, for this to be above average, has the drift shifted north or south in your estimation?

When all those are combined with the continuing lifelessness of our sun and an AMO looking likely to switch to its negative phase anytime soon then a 62/63 type winter is a distinct possibility, if not this winter certainly within the next three............. There I said it. 😁

Thanks again guys.  

SC you've well and truly put your neck on the block there! 

Thanks Gavin 

Fascinating as always.