Met Office Hadley        9.7c.      Anomaly     1.7c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                    9.09c.     Anomaly     2.14c

Netweather                 9.62c      Anomaly     2.79c

Cheadle Hulme           10.2c       Anomaly     1.75c

Clevedon Weather       10.7c      Anomaly      1.54c

Mansfield Weather        9.4c       Anomaly      1.96c

Peasedown St John      7.6c       Anomaly      -0.14c.

Mean of my 10 watched stations     9.52c    Anomaly  1.25c.

Even the GFS 06z with high pressure moving right across the UK for the 8-14 day period doesn't take temps down enough to do all that much to the CET; my rough estimate is 9.3*C to 16th and 8.9*C to 24th!

That being said - I really don't trust GFS with minimums under anticyclonic conditions in Oct-Dec; it seems to model far too much 'blanketing' by atmospheric moisture for the overnight period. Locally to me for example, the past fortnight has seen numerous instances of the model having predicted minimums 3 to 7*C (yes 7!) too high.

Even so, long odds on a value below the 8s unless a pronged (more than 3-day) run under imported Arctic or cold continental air comes along at some point. Next week's long-draw southerly is looking unusually prolonged and as such may well be the main reason for CET underestimations this month should there be so such cold spell.

Im reasonably confident that the CET will fall away from the mid 9's where I think it will be as we enter the final third, down to something under 9 but higher than 8 by 30th. 8.5 seems a reasonable compromise just for the moment.

here is the latest GEFS 12z 08/11: 2mTemps for Central England.  

Re the bit highlighted, there are forecast max temps of 16c-17c in the south for this time next week,mid November,quite incredible which if this set up continues could put the record November cet of 10.1c seriously under threat.

Met Office Hadley        9.6c.    Anomaly     1.6c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     9.05c   Anomaly     2.12c

Netweather                  9.67c   Anomaly     2.78c

Clevedon Weather        10.8c   Anomaly      1.64c

Mansfield Weather         9.2c   Anomaly       1.72c

Peasedown St John       7.64c   Anomaly    -0.10c

Mean of my 10      9.54c  Anomaly  1.27c.                

The knock-on effect setting up a colder finish to the month will have to fail to come around in order for such an achievement, but we'll see.

The GFS 00z was the balmiest so far and featured an extraordinary mean of 11.75*C for 15-19th. The 12z is slightly less balmy at 11.0*C for that period, but due to milder minimums 14th-15th my derived CET estimate is very slightly higher to 18th; 10.0*C versus 9.9*C for the 00z.

The 00z continued incredibly mild for a couple more days, such that the CET estimate peaked at 10.1*C to 20th, but the 12z turns cooler and drops to 9.8*C. Thereafter, both runs are chillier overall, but not all that much so really, with estimates to 25th of 9.5*C and 9.3*C for the 00z and 12z respectively.

The scope of this is truly remarkable. The MJO propagation looks to be a factor; models have severely underestimated it's eastward progress across the Indian Ocean toward Indonesia over the past 4 days, and this is the phase 4 (western Indonesia) composite for a Nino background:

Good support there for southerly-sourced air flows. 

A few years back I'd have foreseen this model mishap as it was seemingly the norm, but the failed predictions in recent months that the MJO will propagate east have made me more wary. Oh well - it's not like I had much left to lose! 

At the moment my 7c guess is looking a mile too low.  The consolation being the low heating bills and the prospect of yet more record breaking temps to add to this year’s total!  

And my prediction of 7.3C isn't much better. Might need a last week in November of 2010 proportions to pull this one back!

Still, at least I'm not in the yearly prediction competion as I only started in August.

Very mild conditions set to continue.

Next week very mild, the following week a little less warm but still above average. At this stage it looks unlikely that the CET will finish above 10C but not impossible. I think something close to 9C is more likely as things stand.

At this stage I am still fairly happy with my prediction of 8.7C but I am banking on a rather cool final week of the month.

Met Office Hadley         9.6c.     Anomaly    1.7c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                      9.13c    Anomaly    2.21c

Netweather                   9.69c    Anomaly    2.8c

Clevedon Weather         10.4c    Anomaly     1.74c

Hexam                          8.7c     Anomaly     2.4c

Mansfield Weather          9.3c     Anomaly     1.74c

Peasedown St John        7.85c    Anomaly     0.11c

Mean of my 10  9.63c   Anomaly   1.04c.     

GFS 12z takes the ridge to a less balmy (for the UK) position sooner than previous runs, and then has more in the way of cold weather attempts (only really that at this stage though!) in the 10-16 day period.

Usual caveats apply to my estimations, but I derived a peak CET of 9.7*C to 17th followed by a fairly steady decline to sit at 8.4*C as of 26th.

So it still seems possible that the final CET could be in the high 7s if it was to stay at least very chilly beyond 26th... but it's looking like a long shot. If instead it was bang-on average for 27th-30th then the final figure would be in the range of 8.1-8.2*C.

Then again, given GFS' tendency to be considerably too high with the minimums under high pressure-dominated conditions, especially in lower-res (day 10 onward), and that I've used the provisional Hadley as a starting point, maybe high 7s is not as difficult to achieve as it first appears. Something I'm sure Darren S and Gusty will be pleased to contemplate! 

Met Office Hadley  No Update......

Metcheck       9.12c      Anomaly    2.20c

Netweather    9.73c      Anomaly    2.84c

My 10 stations 9.53c. Anomaly   1.26c. 

Met Office Hadley       No Update

Metcheck              9.08c     Anomaly    2.16c

Netweather           9.72c     Anomaly    2.83c

Clevedon Weather    10.7c   Anomaly    1.54c

Hexam                  8.6c    Anomaly    2.3c

Mansfield Weather 9.3c   Anomaly  0.46c

Peasedown St John 7.9c   Anomaly   0.46c

Treviskey 10.2c   Anomaly   0.84c

Mean of my 10 Watched stations   9.57c.   Anomaly   1.23c.  

So uh... the GFS 12z sends my rough CET estimate tumbling from 9.7*C as of 17th to 7.9*C as of 28th.

That's using an even more provisional starting CET than usual, though! What is it with these Hadley figure AWOL periods? 

Worth noting that this is with the model only managing to get temps below freezing on a couple of nights and even then only in the southwest of the CET region. Chances are, if we do see some chilly continental air from the east followed by strong high pressure dominance, nights could be a fair bit colder than GFS models. It seems to overestimate by the largest amounts in an easterly flow in the autumn, as it overdoes the effect of the North Sea. This may be related to a lack of dynamic ocean SSTs; I recently saw a report that claimed that the model keeps SSTs the same as at initialisation right through to day 16... seems crazy to me but I'd not put it past those Americans .

ECM on the other hand has dynamic SSTs, last I checked .

9.6c to the 11th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

9.7c to the 12th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th & 12th *No data received for the 10th*

Metcheck                  9.09c       Anomaly    2.17c

Netweather               7.75c       Anomaly    2.86c

Bordon                     9.4c         Anomaly    -0.76c     All 10 using a 5 Year Average

Canvey Island           10.2c       Anomaly     1.58c

Cheadle Hulme          10.0c      Anomaly      1.15c

Clevedon Weather       10.7c      Anomaly     1.54c

Darwen                     9.9c        Anomaly     2.26c

Hexam                      8.7c        Anomaly     2.4c

Mount Sorrel             9.3c        Anomaly     1.84c

Mansfield Weather     9.3c        Anomaly     1.82c

Peasedown St John    8.01c      Anomaly     0.27c

Treviskey Redruth      10.1c      Anomaly     0.27c     

Mean of my watched 10 stations   9.56c   Anomaly   1.29c.

My 10 will be an evening update on the 14th as out to dine and visit the cinema...  

Health Warning: Based On Outrageously High-Latitude Blocked GFS Run

From a peak of 9.7*C on 17th, some 2*C above the LTA to that point in the month, the CET tumbles to 8.8*C as of 22nd and then absolutely plummets to 6.8*C as of 29th which is a little below the LTA.

So yeah - caveat time. While that drop 17th-22nd has reasonable support from ensemble modelling, other main models and professional analysis, the much more extreme one afterwards is most likely a flight of fancy as GFS both jumps the gun on and over-amplifies a Greenland height rise signal.

So this was just a bit of fun really, to see where we could end up if it actually happened. Weirdly similar to how October panned out anomaly-wise! 

Latest output suggests the final November CET will start with a 7 rather than an 8. How low it goes remains to be seen. At the moment it still looks like being a significantly above average month because the first two and a half weeks are very mild.

CET should peak on Friday at 9.93C by my calculations.

Just for the record; GFS 06z gave me a final CET estimate of 7.3*C, and the GFS 12z 7.1*C. 

Let's see how those do... knowing GFS' record, it could well be amusing - but it does have its moments so the CET outcome is highly uncertain at this time - I currently consider anywhere between 7.0*C (if it stays generally cold from next Mon or Tue to month's end) and 8.5*C (if the cold is banished by next Thu and a maritime flow returns instead) to be feasible!

Met Office Hadley   Provisional  to 13th    9.7c.      Anomaly      2.0c.

Mean of my 10 watched stations was       9.71c.    Anomaly      1.44c. 

Using the updated CET figure, that 12z of Tue gives a (very rough) final CET estimate of 6.8*C, the 06z of yesterday one of 7.4*C, the 12z 7.2*C, and the 06z of today 6.7*C.

00z was likely a finish in the low-7s and the last two ECM runs look capable of keeping the CET in the 8s (I'm only bothering to do detailed assessment on the colder runs, as that's more entertaining and GW has the serious side well covered).

Interesting times, but I'm not entirely convinced yet about seeing 'proper' cold weather - need ECM to come on board more (even though EPS are already more supportive; too much experience of 'if it can go wrong...' in this country!).

No update from Hadley Yet.  probably 9.7c again.

Metcheck          9.28c.     Anomaly    2.37c

Netweather       9.88c.     Anomaly    2.99c

Mean of my watched 10 stations  9.81c    Anomaly     1.54c.

Met Office Hadley         9.9c.      Anomaly      2.4c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      9.43c     Anomaly      2.50c

Netweather                   9.99c     Anomaly      3.11c

Canvey Island               10.4c     Anomaly       1.78c

Hexam                          8.9c      Anomaly       2.6c 

Mansfield Weather         9.8c      Anomaly       2.34c

Peasedown St John        8.31c    Anomaly       0.57c

Treviskey Redruth          10.6c    Anomaly       1.24c

Men of my 10 using 5 Year average  9.81c  Anomaly   1.54c     

My mean peaked at exactly 11.00c yesterday.

(Max 14.06c, Min 7.94c)

The decline now begins.

Met Office Hadley        10.0c.      Anomaly     2.6c. provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                     9.39c       Anomaly      2.47c

Netweather                  10.4c       Anomaly      3.15c

Bordon                         9.6c        Anomaly      0.56c

Canvey Island               10.3c      Anomaly       1.68c

Cheadle Hulme              10.3c      Anomaly       1.45c

Clevedon Weather          11.1c      Anomaly       1.94c

Darwen                         10.2c      Anomaly       2.56c

Hexam                           8.9c       Anomaly       2.6c

Mount Sorrel                   9.8c       Anomaly       2.34c

Mansfield Weather           9.7c       Anomaly       2.22c

Peasedown St John          8.39c     Anomaly       0.65c

Treviskey Redruth            10.7c     Anomaly       1.34c      

Mean of my watched 10 stations using a 5 year average   9.89c.   Anomaly   1.62c.