The Weather Outlook

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picturesareme
11 October 2018 11:29:41
Video from hurricane Michael eye wall with footage of the calm from within the eyewall towards the end..

Russwirral
11 October 2018 13:13:24

 

The lack of debris and damage makes me suspicious, but it could have been from when the storm had  significantly weakened overland.

A video from 2004 of hurricane Charlie as the eyewall passed over with 155mph gusts - at the end they are filming outside inside eye.

https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-I

 

I have seen a clip of a video filmed yesterday at that airbase east of Panama city with similar winds as that 155mph gusts - I'm desperatly seeking/ waiting for the full video to be uploaded.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

 

I think it might be genuine, alot of trees uprooted on the footage, and damaged roofs, alot of surface water too.


picturesareme
11 October 2018 14:09:45

 

 

I think it might be genuine, alot of trees uprooted on the footage, and damaged roofs, alot of surface water too.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

It may well be but I'm doubtful that this is from when it was at its strongest. Those pine looking trees would have been destroyed from 155mph sustained winds gusting to 175mph 

Quantum
11 October 2018 14:35:15

 

It may well be but I'm doubtful that this is from when it was at its strongest. Those pine looking trees would have been destroyed from 155mph sustained winds gusting to 175mph 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

This is why I'm skeptical. You only get a stunningly clear eye like this when the storm is really strong. This must have been taken very shortly after landfall before the eye had time to degrade which means the storm has to be at nearly its strongest.

 

I will say this, if it is real its nice for the 'rare video' title to be appropiate for once. If anything its an understatement, I've never seen footage this good before.

 

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
11 October 2018 14:43:06

 

This is why I'm skeptical. You only get a stunningly clear eye like this when the storm is really strong. This must have been taken very shortly after landfall before the eye had time to degrade which means the storm has to be at nearly its strongest.

 

I will say this, if it is real its nice for the 'rare video' title to be appropiate for once. If anything its an understatement, I've never seen footage this good before.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

This was it at its strongest..

Truly insane! 175mph wind gusts 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyJAQWOqyoJb

 

Some how i doubt those trees in the earlier video would have still been standing.

 

Quantum
11 October 2018 14:43:50

Anyway back to Leslie. Could this be the first TC ever to affect the Canary Islands while still tropical?

Answer seems to be a probable yes.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
11 October 2018 15:20:18

Anyway back to Leslie. Could this be the first TC ever to affect the Canary Islands while still tropical?

Answer seems to be a probable yes.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Looks more likely to hit Madeira as a tropical storm.

Russwirral
11 October 2018 15:57:43
QQ

Whats the longest lived Hurricane, and subsequent Tropical storm.

Reason I ask is some of those storms in the atlantic have been knocking around for a while now.


Quantum
11 October 2018 16:50:15

 

Looks more likely to hit Madeira as a tropical storm.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Indeed. Still record breaking though.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
11 October 2018 16:51:32

QQ

Whats the longest lived Hurricane, and subsequent Tropical storm.

Reason I ask is some of those storms in the atlantic have been knocking around for a while now.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

On the planet its 31 days. We'll struggle to get there, but top 10 seems likely.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

tallyho_83
11 October 2018 18:02:56
So how come this Hurricane /(thank goodness) wasn't as devastating/fatal as Katrina (2005), Irma (2017) or Florence (Sept 2018) despite being much stronger!?
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Quantum
12 October 2018 00:44:26

Latest model runs project European landfall in Portugal!

2nd European landfall ever and probably the strongest!

Chance of this happening may be as high as 50/50

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

LeedsLad123
12 October 2018 01:21:11

So how come this Hurricane /(thank goodness) wasn't as devastating/fatal as Katrina (2005), Irma (2017) or Florence (Sept 2018) despite being much stronger!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Because the area affected isn't as populated? Mexico Beach for example has just over 1,000 people. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 October 2018 07:21:17

Latest model runs project European landfall in Portugal!

2nd European landfall ever and probably the strongest!

Chance of this happening may be as high as 50/50

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I repeat my comment about this being Schrodinger's storm - you don't know what it will do until you read each morning's weather reports! NHC for instance has it doing a remarkable U-turn back out into the Atlantic.

Incidentally, its longevity is going to be a matter of debate for years to come - it was declassified for 3 days early in its career, so do you count it as the same storm throughout? or just deduct three days? or start counting from when it was re-classified?

 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gray-Wolf
12 October 2018 16:17:50

 

Try again!!!

Eumetsat image showing Leslie bottom left.

I wonder how much of the moisture that was supposed to becoming our way it's robbing?

 


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Russwirral
12 October 2018 17:58:15
GFS having none of NHCs nonsense and keeps it focused on Portugal. 24 hrs to go to find out.
Darren S
12 October 2018 18:24:40

 

This is why I'm skeptical. You only get a stunningly clear eye like this when the storm is really strong. This must have been taken very shortly after landfall before the eye had time to degrade which means the storm has to be at nearly its strongest.

 

I will say this, if it is real its nice for the 'rare video' title to be appropiate for once. If anything its an understatement, I've never seen footage this good before.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'm certain this was genuine, because the guy in the video was said to be staying in a hotel in Panama City, if you look at his Facebook page.

If you look at the satellite animation, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Panama City, but the worst damage appears to have been in Mexico Beach. The eye didn't cross Mexico Beach, but the eyewall, where the strongest winds were, was over Mexico Beach for longer.

This means that prior to the eye, Panama City will have had Easterly winds, coming along the coast rather than straight off the sea, so the strength may have been tempered, particularly the further west you go in Panama City. Meanwhile Mexico Beach will have had onshore winds the entire time the eye was crossing Panama City.

Certainly Panama City will have had some bad damage, particularly in more exposed areas. But probably less than Mexico Beach.


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Maunder Minimum
12 October 2018 18:33:47

 

I'm certain this was genuine, because the guy in the video was said to be staying in a hotel in Panama City, if you look at his Facebook page.

If you look at the satellite animation, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Panama City, but the worst damage appears to have been in Mexico Beach. The eye didn't cross Mexico Beach, but the eyewall, where the strongest winds were, was over Mexico Beach for longer.

This means that prior to the eye, Panama City will have had Easterly winds, coming along the coast rather than straight off the sea, so the strength may have been tempered, particularly the further west you go in Panama City. Meanwhile Mexico Beach will have had onshore winds the entire time the eye was crossing Panama City.

Certainly Panama City will have had some bad damage, particularly in more exposed areas. But probably less than Mexico Beach.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Indeed - for a south facing coast, the east side of the eyewall is the most dangerous place to be. It is all about location and orientation.

Thankfully, the worst affected area, Mexico Beach, is also less populated than other districts. But from wanting to experience a hurricane, I would always want to be in the sector through which the eye passed, just to experience it.


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
12 October 2018 18:36:56

The forecast track of Leslie changes each time I check - why are the models having so much difficulty? This morning it was forecast to do a u-turn and head back out into the Atlantic via the Canaries, now it is forecast to head for southern Portugal:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

Bizarre.


New world order coming.
Gray-Wolf
12 October 2018 18:47:13

Q' will be getting excited esp. if the remnant low enters the western med as our trailing 'cold front' messes with temp contrasts?


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

12 October 2018 21:21:40

Leslie now racing ENE at 35mph. Track now looks reasonably clear. Post-tropical transition will occur tomorrow but a powerful storm will hit Portugal from late tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203928_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/122036.shtml

picturesareme
12 October 2018 22:18:20

 

I'm certain this was genuine, because the guy in the video was said to be staying in a hotel in Panama City, if you look at his Facebook page.

If you look at the satellite animation, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Panama City, but the worst damage appears to have been in Mexico Beach. The eye didn't cross Mexico Beach, but the eyewall, where the strongest winds were, was over Mexico Beach for longer.

This means that prior to the eye, Panama City will have had Easterly winds, coming along the coast rather than straight off the sea, so the strength may have been tempered, particularly the further west you go in Panama City. Meanwhile Mexico Beach will have had onshore winds the entire time the eye was crossing Panama City.

Certainly Panama City will have had some bad damage, particularly in more exposed areas. But probably less than Mexico Beach.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

The eye didn't pass over Panama city it passed east of Panama city.. Tyndall AFB which is located 12 miles outside of Panama city was directly under the eye, and Mexico beach was just clipped.

Darren S
12 October 2018 22:50:52
Here is another video of the eye of Hurricane Michael, and this one isn't vertical!


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

The Beast from the East
12 October 2018 22:55:36

The forecast track of Leslie changes each time I check - why are the models having so much difficulty? This morning it was forecast to do a u-turn and head back out into the Atlantic via the Canaries, now it is forecast to head for southern Portugal:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

Bizarre.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

The weather has been bizarre all year.

Now forecast to hit Central Portugal and nearly a hurricane,

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Darren S
12 October 2018 23:33:58

 

The eye didn't pass over Panama city it passed east of Panama city.. Tyndall AFB which is located 12 miles outside of Panama city was directly under the eye, and Mexico beach was just clipped.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I think we're both right. I found this image and plotted the locations on it. If it's all moving north, then Panama City did eventually see the eye.

Click for full size


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

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