Leslie should be re-named the Schrodinger's Cat storm. You don't know what it will do until you actually open the calendar on the date you're interested in!

The NHC forecast and some of the GFS charts have it going to Portugal and then north getting swallowed by an Atlantic low; but now several of the GFS perturbations have it bouncing off Portugal and returning to mid-Atlantic on a southerly track for another round, as per Q's post above.

Animation at https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1048914365301157888/photo/1 

Michael looks much more predictable, but an unusual feature is that it maintains considerable strength even after it moves inland.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/033651.shtml?tswind120#contents

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Michael really exploding now, the "Redneck Riviera" firmly in his sights. Perhaps the Trump supporters will start taking climate change a little more seriously now

Is it that unusual though? When it comes to climate change, we have to separate signal from noise. Wilma in 2005 is still the biggest recorded hurricane since WWII, but we have no idea whether it was exceeded 200 years ago or more.

Leslie is the unusual storm at the moment, both in location and direction of travel.

So we ignore what , in old money, would have been a cat 2 presenting as a cat 4 maund?

We only notice when the absolute record is broken? Nothing to do with rainfall amounts , speed of intensification, speed of travel just " well there was one bigger back in the day..... i have a newspaper cutting from australia telling me so!"

With an atmosphere now over 1c warmer and the carrying capacity for moisture up an average 7% every single storm has AGW tweaking in it!

I'm just pointing out that the Florida panhandle is well-accustomed to major hurricanes. Counties along the Florida panhandle coast have some of the highest number of hurricane landfalls in the entire US (only south Florida is higher iirc).

That is pure speculation and nothing else.

I am not a denialist, but if you are to be credible, you have to separate signal and noise. Picking up on a single event as some kind of proof, is sophistry of the worst kind. Patterns are the key and over decades, not a couple of years.

Shrinking ice caps and bleaching coral demonstrate the bigger picture, not an individual hurricane.

The Sea temps are 28-30c plenty of fuel for Hurricane Michael to intensify plus there's not much wind shear either.

I'm no expert by any means but there was still major Hurricanes decades ago and the planet was a few degrees cooler then. Its Storms like Leslie which are more "interesting" from a longevity point of view.

As I saw somewhere, a hurricane season isn''t a serious season until a hurricane visits you in person. So maybe the Trump heartlands will think about climate change - but if any of them are numerate they will see that the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and landfalls is almost spot on average for this date.

ICON has Leslie complete another loop. Still there at 180hr.

Like I say we have two records up for grabs. The usual European landfall/ Eastern storm if it doesn't loop and longevity if it does loop.

This Hurricane Michael strengthened out of no where really - must be very warm water over the Gulf of Mexico? - I remember Florence? Was due to strengthen and make landfall as a major cat 4 but it turned out it made landfall as a cat 1 and weakened - yes it stalled but it never strengthened! Looks like this Hurricane Michael will make landfall as a cat 3 and could turn out the be more devastating than Florence!? The good news is that it's not going to stall. What do you think re Michael? 

Nadine now in S Central Atlanic. Not very powerful and a long way from land. Interesting possibility that it could link up with Leslie if that storm does another loop.

Last part of the NHC report for Leslie.

"If Leslie moves as far east as shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post- tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However, until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it continues meandering over the northern Atlantic."

Lol at 'almost indefinitely'. You can imagine the person who wrote this is becoming increasingly annoyed!

Well Michael is turning into another AGW warning!

Nothing to cat 3 in 48 hrs and still a lot of fuel in his path.

This is no Florence!

Panama city is currently in the firing line and the speed of development/increasing threat means many will go without prep or chance of escape.

If trump and co needed a heads up for what they are calling 'fake' this may turn into just such an event!

But it does not end there, With so much flooding from Florence still to shift a 'brown ocean' entrance into the nation is not beyond possibility.

A cat 2 ploughing into the Carolinas from inland is also not beyond possibility!

Not long to find out eh?

Storm force winds will be arriving at the coast before their dawn and it still looks like an evening arrival for the eye?

I would be careful linking TC activity to AGW. AGW actually for most TCs decreases activity not increases. In fact all TCs are less likely in future climatic simultions except Cat 4 and Cat 5s and it seems unlikely Michael will get to that intensity. It may well be the case that AGW resulted in more oceanic heat content than there would be otherwise, however this is likely to be more than counteracted by the increases shear which is also linked to AGW. Micheal is under moderately heavy shear without which he would be alot stronger.

Michael has continued to rapidly intensify. Now expected to reach category 4 by landfall. Very serious situation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100252.shtml

If Michael keeps up to forecast of 130 mph wind it will be the strongest hurricane ever recorded (back to 1851) to hit the Florida panhandle. Add in a 13' storm surge and 4" of rain inland over the saturated Carolinas and this is indeed a major event. It seems less newsworthy than Florence - hurricane fatigue or a less populated area?

Cat 4 landfalls hit mainland US on average occur every 7 years so unusual but not exceptional.

Meanwhile Leslie continues to baffle and annoy forecasters with increasing probability that it will miss the Atlantic conveyor and turn back into the Atlantic https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/100243.shtml? EDIT: GFS 0z has it completing a full loop and still there as an identifiable feature off Newfoundland on Mon 22nd, breaking records for longevity - but I wouldn't bet on it!

 "U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) says that hurricane surge will likely erode 75 percent of Florida Panhandle beaches and will likely inundate more than 25 percent of that coast’s dunes, causing flooding behind the protective dune line.

If the hurricane intensifies and stays on the course forecast by the NHC, storm surge impacts are likely to be most severe in the panhandle region east of the eye, where surge- and wave-induced water levels could rise 16 to 20 feet, the USGS predicted.

In the open Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Michael’s wave heights are predicted to be as much as 40 feet, said research oceanographer Kara Doran, leader of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team based in St. Petersburg, Florida.

“As the storm approaches the coast, the shallow sea bed will reduce that wave height somewhat,” Dorn said. “But water levels in some parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle coast will still be high enough to overwhelm the dunes, which are relatively low and narrow.”

Doesn't seem to be much fuss in the media which is surprising. Maybe because it developed so fast and as mentioned there is fatigue and complacency after Florence

It is still strengthening and a few more hours to get stronger. The Redneck Riviera is going get a hammering

'Canes are effectively 'heat pumps' taking the energy from the ocean up into the atmosphere.

If you look at an infra red trace of the ocean surface where a 'cane has passed there used to be a marked 'cold wake' where heat has been taken out of the ocean and the ocean layers stirred up.

Sadly this is changing as the oceans warm to ever greater depths. The first time we saw this was in the Pacific storms ( cyclones/Typhoons) with warmed water, capable of sustaining a hurricane, down to 130M ( Haiyan).

Meanwhile lets not forget the rest of the globe!;

For the first time in the modern record (last 40 years) the India Meteorological Department is issuing simultaneous warnings for two cyclones in the North Indian Ocean - #Luban and #Titli pic.twitter.com/yCouGl5ekb

— Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms) October 10, 2018

Back in the Gulf Michael appears to have made Cat 4 with further strengthening possible. This is a beast and may well come ashore as a record breaking storm ( cat 4's are very rare in October)

Well when Florence hit NC and SC last month it was a cat 1 and it was expected to make landfall at a Cat 4 and there was so much media coverage - but this Hurricane Michael looks more devastating as it's strengthening to cat 4 - HuRRICANE FLorence weakened! This to me looks like Hurricane Ike back in 2008 - it seems like Michael just strengthen out of the blue - as it's now a cat 4? - What i have notice is that there doesn't seem to be the media coverage like with Florence!?

Plus I remember watching the Hurricane forecast on accu weather on fRI/Saturday re Michael and this was forecast to be a tropical storm or maybe cat 1 at max and now we have it as a major hurricane making landfall!? - Maybe it's taken some meteorologists by surprise?

Crikey, Michael has sustained winds now at 140 mph

As our atmosphere warms it become an ever more dynamic entity. this can lead to 'damping down' storm activity as shear limits vertical growth and dry air/saharan sand can also mess up chances of development.

This said the ocean temps are not 'messed with' so 'unharvested energy' fills the Hurricane regions.

Michael show us this with a very warm ( to depth) G.O.M. in October and a rapid intensification from disturbance to Cat4. If you look at how much warning west Cuba had of the storms approach you can see just how difficult this makes the job of the agencies normally helping folk prepare/evacuate.

The Gulf coast normally has nearly a week at least for folk to prepare for a possible hit and if the 'cone' remains stable the target area can go into overdrive in preparation.

As it is the folk who are normally last to prepare are now battling with those who are first to prepare for vanishing supplies. The window for evaqcuation is now closing with tropical storm swells already flooding some areas and sporadic T.S. wind gusts.

This could be very bad for those Michael hits full on with a potential for 130mph sustained winds as it comes in and heads inland. Areas like Georgia/N.Carolina/S/Carolina may still suffer Tropical Storm force winds and damaging rainfalls.

EDIT : Let's remember Harvey jumped from Cat2 to Cat4 as it moved over the 'bath tub warm' waters at the coast!

Recon are out and the latest pass had central pressure down to 937mb!!!

Well on the way to a CAT5 and only an hour until sun up ( two hours until the 'floater' has usable visible images though?)

Outer rain bands already hitting the Gulf Coast/Florida.

12 hours to landfall.