I'm on to you Mr Smith....sleep with your eyes open .

Forgotten what I went for now.

Here's a little quirk, Septembers with a CET of 13.7C in recent times

2018, 2013, 1995, 1984, 1983

What do you notice about that?

They all followed very good summers.  

I don`t think 2013 was a very good summer apart from the 3 week heatwave in July that year also 1984 was ok but certainly not like the other good ones.

2013 and 1984 were both very good summers, especially for northern and western Britain. Its not all about the SE you know .

Annual CET competition - September update

Here is the September table. No change in the top 4 this month. However, Darren S and Gusty are now well ahead of everyone else. Stormchaser just manages to hold on to third place despite a cumulative prediction error of 3.04C in the past two months.

The big question now is can either of the top two beat the current CET competition record which stands at 5.99C set by Whether Idle in 2016.

The big mover this month in the top 10 is The Professional who is up six places to fifth after winning the September competition with an error of just 0.02C.

October predictions coming up tomorrow evening

TABLE

Here are the charts for September. Overall an average month compared to 1971-2000 and 0.3C below average compared to 1981-2010. The maximum CET was bang on the 1981-2010 mean while the minimum was 0.66C below average.

So I must keep my errors to less than 2.37C over the remaining three months, or 0.79C per month on average to achieve this. Sounds achievable but one bad month could scupper it completely! Let's see what October gives us, you'll see I've gone a bit milder than average. 

Thanks, Simon!

If the weather plays ball then the record I set 2 years ago should fall.  Only seriously divergent conditions in the final 3 months will make it a tricky task.  I expect a new record to be set by at least one of them.  Darren is favourite with his "cushion" but Steve has a shout, whilst I,  and many others, are "toast" for this year.

2013 certainly was a good summer. Okay, June was a bit forgettable, apart from the first week which was ridiculously sunny, but July was a stunner. Lots of sunshine and some good thunderstorms at the end of the month too.

Thanks for the interesting stats GW! 

Congrats to everyone who got close in September because it really was a tough one to call!  I note I’m on the slippery slope down the table yet again, but it’s no surprise to me!  

If October's final CET exceeds 12.36C, Gusty Steve will overshoot the target.