Hello folks,

Here's the weather forecast (video and traditional Written Thoughts) for the week ahead;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Sitting somewhere between the end of Summer and true Autumn this week...

Earlier today we released the first Winter 2018/19 seasonal model round-up. That video gets together 12 long range seasonal models to see what they're all showing for Winter 18/19.

You can watch here:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Tomorrow we've got the Fifth Winter 2018/19 Update coming up. This one will be a solar cycles special (as well as all the regular winter update features)

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the Fifth Winter 2018/19 Update: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Cheers as always, Mr GP.

It's now increasingly likely that the complete borefest in this part of the world and our long run of months without it ever being wetter than average here in terms of the actual rainfall amounts (it has at least been a completely different story in terms of the number of official rain days during this month) that has been ongoing here from May onwards, will probably carry on through October as well.

You did mention that this could result in a cold winter depending on the exact position of that area of high pressure, but my real concern here would be the potential for some vast water shortages in many parts of the UK if this was to carry on for any length of time into next year as well.

In the long run, this could therefore, end up becoming very serious indeed.

Thank you Gavin. Chilly nights are starry nights for my telescope and satellite watching.. 

^^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

John, I think we're a while away from things getting serious at the moment. Obviously if we get to next Summer and we haven't had some appreciable rainfall and then we have another hot Summer things will be quite serious... But we're a long way from that at the moment.

Have added The First Winter 2018/19 Seasonal Model Round-Up to the winter updates page + A written summary going over everything we discuss in the video

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

It is the possibility of that actually happening (as we all say, anything can happen when it comes to the weather), that I'm a bit worried about though and to me, the best way of putting that to rest would be if that appreciable rainfall was to start falling right now. That way, we won't even have to even think about being concerned about that further down the line.

^^^^

It certainly would be nice to get some wetter conditions soon John! 

Here's the fifth Winter 2018/19 Update

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

As well as all the usual Winter update features this one is a Solar Special with a special focus on solar minimum Winters...

Will add to the Winter updates page with a written summary for anyone who can't watch the video this evening.

It's more for the south that has hardly seen any rain at all!? Been going on for months - perhaps since April!!?

Yes, it's true that it has been the south which has seen the driest of the conditions. However, it has been drier than average even here in the east of Scotland as well and one good example of that is at Edinburgh Gogarbank which has still not had a wetter than average month since April.

What is happening is that various forecasts keep on talking about Scotland getting some rain yet every time that this is happening, it is mostly the north and west of Scotland which has been getting that rain with the result that the east (and south) of Scotland has largely been missing out.

I'm not suggesting for a moment that it is anything like as dry here as it in the south of England. However, we can't just simply ignore the fact that it has still been dry here anyway, and that is the point which I am trying to make.

Have added the fifth winter 2018/19 video to the winter updates page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Thanks Gavin.

That was interesting - especially the part about the winter before the solar min and the fact that this winter may not be the real solar min.  You can see from the cycle graph that the Northern and Southern solar dynamos are out of phase - hence the double peak (one hemisphere peaks, then the other one does). The southern hemisphere of the sun is running behind the northern hemisphere so we won't reach true minimum until they both bottom - so next year rather than this year seems probable to me too.

When looking at analogues for the winter before minimum, what happens if you drop out the active cycles and only look at the weak cycles like 24 (probably not a lot of data unfortunately)? In the stronger cycle pre-min years, the sun spot count would typically be a lot higher than what we are seeing now.  One thing that makes me think that we'll see a low solar analogue pattern this winter (even if next winter is the true bottom) is the pattern we saw emerge in late Feb/March last winter since that was possibly an early sign that the solar cycle was now favourable for blocking.

Thanks Beng!

Actually I have got a little bit of data for just weak solar cycles... And I'll be starting the Sixth update with those analogues so don't want to say too much at the moment. 

Good stuff Gav and beng.

I think this cycle is proving rather difficult in calling when the actual minimum will occur. I also think that the atmosphere since the last SSW is primed for a much weaker PV developing over this coming winter.