99L off Africa was the one that made it to Kirk, and set to sweep across to the Caribbean by later this week. Not much intensification expected. TD11 in its path disappears.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

The most interesting one is the disturbance to the north, currently extra-tropical. GFS after some dithering has it developed into a full-blown hurricane in two weeks' time; ECM doesn't want to know; Fax chart shows it as a well-devloped frontal depression on Thursday. A suggestion on weather Underground that it may get dignified with the title 90L.

The next name on the TS list is Leslie.

Continuing much as forecast yesterday.

TD11 disappears and Kirk steams across the Atlantic to take its place, only to be disrupted by the high wind shear which has protected the Craibbean all this season.

98L may move onshore to give the Carolinas more rain - not a major amount but still unwelcome after recent floods from Florence.

The mid-north Atlantic storm is now named as (sub-)tropical storm Leslie. It ambles around not doing much but is visible on GFS and ECM charts intensifying later this week. In FI, GFS no longer sends it north to dissipate but across to Portugal instead - that probably means it could eventually move off anywhere.

Kirk has died but fragments are likely to revive (will they still count as Kirk?)

98L more certain to add to rainfall total in Carolina

Leslie giving weather models a headache both as to how active it is and its final fate. GFS most bullish with Leslie as a major storm more or less in situ for a couple of weeks; ECM less so.

Much as yesterday. Leslie may drop iout of being a tropical storm and them back in again, rather like Kirk.

I don't remember a previous season where storms have so often developed, decayed and then revived again.

EDIT: Kirk has now officially risen from the dead

98L gone; Kirk revived and moving across Antilles but set to diminish and die out soon due to wind shear (unusually prevalent in the Caribbean this year and giving that area protection); Leslie going round in circles in the N Atlantic, not currently a named storm but forecast to revive shortly and acquire tropical status. 

Suggestion of a storm arising in Gulf of Mexico in a week's time.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

Ex-Leslie mixing out dry air and developing meso-vortices in the core... signs of a return toward tropical status.

A particularly photogenic storm in an uncommon location, for an unusually long time, and not causing much harm. Arguably as interesting as they come unless you're looking for high intensity.

Leslie now revived and forecast up to hurricane later this week. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc Not only that but GFS has it sticking around for another 10 days in more or less the same place. How odd!

There is the interesting possibility that such a powerful storm in the same place for such a long time will generate big long-distance swells, such as overtopped the Chesil Beach in 1978. They were also generated by a storm at some distance while local weather was calm.

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~imw/chestorm.htm

Note also on this site the account of a hurricane entering or very close to the English Channel in 1824

That's very interesting DEW. The event is still remembered by some in this part of England.

I will try and find out more.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Leslie showing up nicely and expected to become a hurricane soon, but not going anywhere. Great surf 

Tropical storm Leslie was named on 23 Sept and has scarcely moved since. Now forecast to be ahurricane, still in mid-Atlantic, over the next couple of days - but - GFS shows it on the move by Fri week (12th), first visiting the Portuguese coast (that should give really monster waves for the surfers) and then making a dash northwards across Brittany and Ireland on the 13th. A totally bizarre track!

I'm sure this has been posted already but the weather channel forecast on Florence is amazing, perhaps all tv forecasts should be more like this in the future, would boost viewing figures

Scary as [censored]weather report. First it's like, ah smart use of green screen, then it's like holy fucking shit. pic.twitter.com/J9SmZqTqVI

— Nooruddean (@BeardedGenius) September 13, 2018

Leslie finally on the move eastwards towards Spain and then, with the usual uncertainties in FI - combining with atlantic circulation and running northwards to give southerly gales in the west next weekend (13th/14th)

PTC14 due to become TD14 and then probably TS* Michael as it moves north from Yucatan to hit the US coast near the Florida panhandle next Tuesday - might make hurricane cat 1 by then, just about. Mainly a source of heavy rain. A couple of days later it emerges into the Atlantic by New England to pep up the general westerly circulation.

Leslie merging with the jet stream later this week to give the UK southerly gales and tropical air.

* sorry about the alphabet soup! First there were Tropical Storms, then as forecasting got better, their prequel as Tropical Depressions were instituted, and now we have Potential Tropical Cyclones

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085347.shtml?cone#contents

Hurricane Michael could hit the Gulf Coast on Wed

Leslie has been around (in some form) for two weeks now and is showing no signs of transitioning or dissipating anytime soon. Could we start thinking about longevity records?

Leslie is now moving away from the location where it has lasted so long. I doubt we'll see much of it after Saturday 13th
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents 

It was first identified 11 am 23 Sept https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/LESLIE.shtml? 
which would make 21 days to Saturday13th.

That puts it about 5th in longevity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Longest_duration 
To move up to 3rd it would have to last 3-and-a-bit days beyond Saturday, and for an all-time record it would have to last 6 days beyond Saturday. The undisputed record of 27d 6h is held by hurricane Ginger 1971. However,  the San Cinaco storm of 1899 managed 27d 18h but this was not continuous, rather like Leslie has been.

The ECM solution is really interesting, it has it pushing back westward (at a lower latitude). Its still there at +240hr!

Other models kill it off quicker though like you say. 

12Z ECM has it even further south at +240hr.

Meanwhle forecasts fro Michael continue to intensify - probable cat 2 on landfall and big storm surge due to configuration of seabed off Florida

This morning's ECM has Leslie making landfall (!) in Portugal on Sunday 14th, running up the coast and disappearing on Monday. GFS keeps it a bit further off the coast and dissipating a little earlier. A wildly anomalous storm/hurricane - has there been one like it before?

The other storm on ECM's Sunday chart, close to the US seaboard, I take to be Michael rejuvenated after a traverse of the US, holding on to its storm status over land as per NHC charts.

Some of the models give N.O. more than a glancing blow from a very powerful Michael!

This will be an interesting watch!

Some eye candy for the evening as the storm fires up for their daylight hours;

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

EDIT: Don't forget to 'refresh' the page every so often!

Love the sass in the latest NHC report on Leslie!

"For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W."

But like DEW says I think the end may (just about) be in sight as the storm veers towards Portugal. Still a chance it could end up going the other way for another loop though!

I'm pretty happy though, either we get yet another try at a record breaking potential European landfall or have another shot at a longevity record.

And yes I understand that Michael is the storm that most people are going to be watching. Though, if I'm honest, I do not really have much personal interest in 'well behaved' textbook storms.

Leslie dead but it won't lie down 

"LESLIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT"
"Leslie could be near hurricane strength in a few days."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/081438.shtml public advisory 11 am AST 8 Oct


Michael forecast now up to major hurricane i.e.cat 3 +