The Weather Outlook

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Arcus
19 September 2018 17:46:16
Given the chaos out on our local roads today when we under no warning (amber or yellow), I'm wondering what the next few days will bring...
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 September 2018 17:52:40

I know there's quite a lot of discussion about the weekend but tomorrow night could be unusually bad in the southern half of the UK. 12z ICON and Arpege runs both suggest serious disruption is possible.

PS: I expect the Met to go orange quite soon.

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Those are some pretty strong winds hitting quite densely populated areas. It's also not only the wind, it looks there's also some heavy and persistent rain to deal with too.

   

I think this warrants more than a yellow warning, so it should go amber soon. Storm Bronagh for tomorrow night and then Storm Callum for Sunday then?


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Arcus
19 September 2018 17:55:27

12z FAX for midnight Friday:


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

scillydave
19 September 2018 19:23:29

If the below is anywhere near true then imho a red warning needs to be issued as the gust speeds for the middle part of the southern uk are well in excess of anything that weve seen in a long while across southern inland uk. And that's thinking about winter let alone with trees in full leaf. Gusts above 80mph would be quite literally catastrophic. Even in the 1987 storm and the storms of the last decade highest wind gusts did not exceed 70mph in the areas showing 80mph+ on the map below. Does anyone know the accuracy of below chart?

I know there's quite a lot of discussion about the weekend but tomorrow night could be unusually bad in the southern half of the UK. 12z ICON and Arpege runs both suggest serious disruption is possible.

PS: I expect the Met to go orange quite soon.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2018 07:03:30

I know there's quite a lot of discussion about the weekend but tomorrow night could be unusually bad in the southern half of the UK. 12z ICON and Arpege runs both suggest serious disruption is possible.

PS: I expect the Met to go orange quite soon.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

This looks like being a massive fail for ICON and Arpege 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
scillydave
20 September 2018 09:31:01
Let's hope so.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

20 September 2018 10:05:25

The winds are unlikely to be as strong as those shown on the chart above but we can still expect some fairly rough conditions tonight. Indeed the 6Z ICON run does have some very high gusts over the Pennines. The storm has now officially been named as Storm Bronagh.

The north-east of England looks likely to be worst affected as the storm exits into the north sea. The storm is still developing at this point. It reaches 969mb by midday Friday as it approaches Norway based on the latest fax charts.

Latest 06Z ICON

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018092006/iconeu_uk1-2-22-0.png?20-10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018092006/iconeu_uk1-11-22-0.png?20-10

The 6z has not yet updated on the TWO charts but even the 0z has 80-90mph winds just offshore and 70 mph on the coast.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/icon/00_30_ukwindvector_gust.png?cb=2

Here is the text from the latest updated Met O warning - given the storm has now been named we can expect an Amber warning at some point soon for parts of E / NE England

Updated:

10:30 on Thu 20 Sep 2018 BST

Reason for update

The warning area, now associated with Storm Bronagh, has been extended to cover more of northern England. The likelihood of medium impacts has also been increased.

News release from the Met O

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/storm-bronagh

20 September 2018 10:39:41

Looks like the Met O is going with the ICON solution for tonight. Latest fax chart for 06z Friday has the storm at 977mb just off the east coast.

ICON chart for 6z looks identical

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018092006/iconeu_uk1-2-24-0.png?20-10

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?2

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 September 2018 11:24:17

Looks like it will turn windy later on, but for many Storm Bronagh looks like she will be a total washout. Some areas could see heavy rain for a good 12 hours+, giving the possibility of localised flooding.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1042735294246793222


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

nsrobins
20 September 2018 17:33:01
Some impressive deepening now on the low they called Briana or whatever.

3mb drop in last hour south of Ireland.

It’s the cold front that poses the greatest risk of very gusty winds plus embedded troughs near the low centre.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

KevBrads1
20 September 2018 18:53:42
Timelapse of Storm Bronagh's passage over my location and the direction the clouds moved this afternoon is baffling and really odd. Clouds at various levels seem to be moving in all sorts of directions and changing direction.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

KevBrads1
20 September 2018 19:06:59

Timelapse of Storm Bronagh's passage over my location and the direction the clouds moved this afternoon is baffling and really odd. Clouds at various levels seem to be moving in all sorts of directions and changing direction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxqR1Sh3ERQ

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

">

Rostherne No 2, United Kingdom (3351): wind direction: 14.09.2018 20:00:00 - 20.09.2018 20:00:00 (BST)

The Rostherne wind chart is very interesting shows the strange wind directions over a short period.

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Chunky Pea
20 September 2018 19:13:48

Timelapse of Storm Bronagh's passage over my location and the direction the clouds moved this afternoon is baffling and really odd. Clouds at various levels seem to be moving in all sorts of directions and changing direction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxqR1Sh3ERQ

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

That is incredible viewing KevBrads. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

SJV
20 September 2018 20:52:22
56.4mm and counting here in Sheffield. Comfortably our wettest day of the year so far. It's lashing it down again and the winds have really picked up during the last hour.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2018 22:24:03
Bronagh’s really bombing on the models over the next few hours. Proper explosive cyclogenes. From around 992 at 9pm tonight to 968 by midday tomorrow on Icon as it hits Norway. A rough few hours on the rigs.

Icon 18z isn’t giving us much wind on Sunday though. The deepening seems to depend on latitude: the more north the depression is on Sunday, the more it deepens. The weaker options all have the centre going up the channel.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
KevBrads1
25 November 2018 15:26:40

Here we go with more confusion. The Portuguese Met Office have named a low will affect the Azores, Diana. This is likely to affect the UK as Met Office press release says

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/cold-gives-way-to-rain-and-gales

 

Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Dan Harris said: “It now looks very likely that we will see a major change in the UK’s weather early in the week ahead. We expect spells of wet and windy weather to sweep across the UK from the southwest from Tuesday, although at the moment there is uncertainty around the timing and the focus for the heaviest rain and strong winds by Wednesday as Storm Diana approaches our shores."

The Met Office has Deirdre to be used for the next named storm on their list for 2018-19 but here they are using Diana.

The current system is a clusterfuck 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

doctormog
25 November 2018 15:35:26
Storm

Naming

Aids

Further

Understanding?


johncs2016
25 November 2018 15:44:23

Here we go with more confusion. The Portuguese Met Office have named a low will affect the Azores, Diana. This is likely to affect the UK as Met Office press release says

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/cold-gives-way-to-rain-and-gales

 

Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Dan Harris said: “It now looks very likely that we will see a major change in the UK’s weather early in the week ahead. We expect spells of wet and windy weather to sweep across the UK from the southwest from Tuesday, although at the moment there is uncertainty around the timing and the focus for the heaviest rain and strong winds by Wednesday as Storm Diana approaches our shores."

The Met Office has Deirdre to be used for the next named storm on their list for 2018-19 but here they are using Diana.

The current system is a clusterfuck 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

It wouldn't surprise me of course, if Met Eireann beats them to it though, as has tended to be the case for most of the time during the last year or so.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

KevBrads1
25 November 2018 20:20:15

So what happens to the name Deirdre?

Diana comes after Deirdre in alphabetical order, so the next storm assuming there is another one this season and if the Met Office does actually get the chance to name it, it has to be Erik? Assuming they even bother to name it at that 

If you are confused then welcome to the cockeyed world of storm naming.

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

nsrobins
25 November 2018 20:53:58

So what happens to the name Deirdre?

Diana comes after Deirdre in alphabetical order, so the next storm assuming there is another one this season and if the Met Office does actually get the chance to name it, it has to be Erik? Assuming they even bother to name it at that 

If you are confused then welcome to the cockeyed world of storm naming.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Don’t get me started 😤


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

johncs2016
25 November 2018 20:54:18

So what happens to the name Deirdre?

Diana comes after Deirdre in alphabetical order, so the next storm assuming there is another one this season and if the Met Office does actually get the chance to name it, it has to be Erik? Assuming they even bother to name it at that 

If you are confused then welcome to the cockeyed world of storm naming.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

As far as I know, Storm Diana was named by the Portoguese service using their own system which is completely separate from our own joint Met Office/Met Eireann system. Nevertheless, the fact that this storm has already been named by the Portoguese service means that it can't then be renamed by either the UK Met Office or Met Eireann. This means that the next named storm on our system will still be Storm Dierdre as far as I know.

To me, this is another good example of why there should be a single European system for naming these storms instead of the rather disjointed state of affairs which we have just now with a number of different systems in place which are run by a number of different countries, and that was something which I even brought up last year on this forum at around this time.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 November 2018 16:52:19

So the Portuguese have named it because it travelled slightly close to the Azores? Now the UK (which will be affected much more severely I would imagine) will be stuck with the name solely because the Met Office daren't rename a system that's already been named by another Met agency? This system is a joke.

I've said repeatedly, either rename storms according to the UK listing, or develop a Europe-wide naming scheme!


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

johncs2016
26 November 2018 16:53:58

So the Portuguese have named it because it travelled slightly close to the Azores? Now the UK (which will be affected much more severely I would imagine) will be stuck with the name solely because the Met Office daren't rename a system that's already been named by another Met agency? This system is a joke.

I've said repeatedly, either rename storms according to the UK listing, or develop a Europe-wide naming scheme!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Exactly, I couldn't agree with you more.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 November 2018 17:18:57

 

Exactly, I couldn't agree with you more.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I just can't understand how they've made such a fiasco out of something that is so simple and straight-forward on paper. Even we struggle to understand it and we're the weather enthusiasts... the public, who this was really designed for, won't have a chance.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

KevBrads1
04 December 2018 04:56:38

From Met Office

The Portuguese met service have named an area of low pressure in the Atlantic, Storm Etienne. Whilst it is going to weaken before it reaches the UK, it will still bring some wet weather with hill snow for the highest ground of Wales and England

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1069685200789983234

 

FARCE!!!!!!

 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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