The Weather Outlook

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Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 September 2018 23:02:54

The Met Office and the Met Eireann have released their name list for the 2018-19 season.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1039649538028359682

Personally I hope this year they keep to one system and don't combine the storms named by other European met agencies, as that made it an absolute confusing fiasco last year.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

johncs2016
12 September 2018 00:03:55
I suppose the big question as regards to those storms which are named under our own joint British and Irish system is whether our own Met Office are going to take a greater responsibility for naming those storms themselves this time, or whether it will end up being like the last time when it was mostly Met Eireann who named those storms.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

KevBrads1
13 September 2018 04:13:18

 

Personally I hope this year they keep to one system and don't combine the storms named by other European met agencies, as that made it an absolute confusing fiasco last year.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Problem is that there is nothing stopping an European met agency naming a low pressure system before the UK or Irish Met Offices. The French did it with Storm David and that had a greater impact on us than it did on them. 


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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2018 06:10:00

Might get the first named storm as early as next week, depending on how (by then ex-hurricane) Helene behaves - but she'll have a name and sex change to Ali if that's the case.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
13 September 2018 08:58:00

Might get the first named storm as early as next week, depending on how (by then ex-hurricane) Helene behaves - but she'll have a name and sex change to Ali if that's the case.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Can we blame the Muslims?

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Chunky Pea
13 September 2018 11:30:58

 

Problem is that there is nothing stopping an European met agency naming a low pressure system before the UK or Irish Met Offices. The French did it with Storm David and that had a greater impact on us than it did on them. 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Germans seem to have their own system as well. They even name anticyclones.

 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

The Beast from the East
13 September 2018 11:40:35

Looks like Helene will continue to be called Helene as Ophelia was last year. May even hit as a proper tropical system as Q mentions in other thread

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 September 2018 14:32:23

 

Problem is that there is nothing stopping an European met agency naming a low pressure system before the UK or Irish Met Offices. The French did it with Storm David and that had a greater impact on us than it did on them. 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

That's fine, but we don't need to keep the same name. If you look back through a lot of historic windstorms in Europe, they've been given different names in different countries.

Apart from ex-tropical systems which keep their NHC names, the UK should stick to it's own list of names and France, Portugal et al should stick to theirs etc. If it will also be notable in the UK, then I see no reason why the UK shouldn't name it as per our suystem too. It makes it much easier to follow that way. Either that or develop a Europe-wide scheme.

Anyway, it's definitely looking like the first storm of this season will be an ex-hurricane, and could very well be about as to a tropical feature as the UK can get.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 September 2018 10:51:33

It could be an interesting week to come. Could ex-Hurricane Helene on Monday night-Tuesday potentially followed by a possible Storm Ali on Thursday/Friday? The models look pretty exciting for fans of stormy weather.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 September 2018 10:54:47

It could be an interesting week to come. Could ex-Hurricane Helene on Monday night-Tuesday potentially followed by a possible Storm Ali on Thursday/Friday? The models look pretty exciting for fans of stormy weather.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

But are we going to get any useful rain out of these systems in southern England or will it just be wind?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

idj20
16 September 2018 22:35:30

While ex-Helene will give me nothing but a bit of hair dryer-type breeze, I think it's what will follow later on in the week and weekend that will be of more notice. GFS hanging onto the idea of a rapidly developing mid-country low over the weekend, but for now UKMO & ECM aren't showing any interest at all - thus highlighting model diversity/uncertainty at that range.

To be honest, it's all too soon for all this Autumn crap, there's at least 7 months to put up with that!


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 September 2018 09:23:14

Storm Ali has been named and is expected to hit on Wednesday. The Met Office have issued amber and yellow warnings across Scotland for wind.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-19

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1041961884004634625


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

KevBrads1
18 September 2018 10:50:03

While ex-Helene will give me nothing but a bit of hair dryer-type breeze, I think it's what will follow later on in the week and weekend that will be of more notice. GFS hanging onto the idea of a rapidly developing mid-country low over the weekend, but for now UKMO & ECM aren't showing any interest at all - thus highlighting model diversity/uncertainty at that range.

To be honest, it's all too soon for all this Autumn crap, there's at least 7 months to put up with that!

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Total non event here. Hardly any rain as well.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2018 16:55:22
Next Sunday looks very interesting on GFS. What will presumably be Storm Bronagh gives us >50kt sustained winds and gusts in the North Sea of >140kph (confusingly they show 10m wind in knots and gusts in kph).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_129_9.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_19.png 

This occurs on the 23rd Sept which is the day before full moon and just after equinox. Not quite the spring tide but not far off. And at the moment we’re looking at deep low pressure following several days of strong westerly fetch and a northerly gale through the North Sea.

The Northerlies along the East coast will be persistent above 50kt for several hours too.

Worth keeping an eye on. Much can and probably will change in the models before then.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
briggsy6
18 September 2018 17:27:03

Blimey we're already discussing the second named storm of the season before the first has even arrived. The Atlantic must be really ramping up!


Location: Uxbridge
Jim-55
18 September 2018 18:34:04

We were inside the yellow warning area for wind last night and part of today, what we got was a very pleasant warm breeze and some very welcome sunshine.

 


Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
doctormog
18 September 2018 18:58:50
The wind is already starting to pick up here and I would expect some vile, damagingly windy conditions for many parts of Scotland over the next 24 hours.
Chunky Pea
18 September 2018 20:13:43

Bronagh

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Interesting and poetic name. Roughly means 'sorrow' in English.  


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Stormchaser
18 September 2018 20:42:57

With ECM jumping ship on the 12z set, a blend of that and GFS for this coming Sunday now equals one of the most severe windstorms I've ever experienced down here in any month, let alone September when the trees are largely in full leaf.

Concerning, to say the least surprised.


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doctormog
18 September 2018 20:57:16

With ECM jumping ship on the 12z set, a blend of that and GFS for this coming Sunday now equals one of the most severe windstorms I've ever experienced down here in any month, let alone September when the trees are largely in full leaf.

Concerning, to say the least surprised.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I’d like only be worried if the models still show the same thing in two or three days.


bowser
18 September 2018 21:31:07

The wind is already starting to pick up here and I would expect some vile, damagingly windy conditions for many parts of Scotland over the next 24 hours.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

glad I’m flying back up there on Thursday and not tomorrow! Had enough of hairy landings on prop planes.... 

Speaking of wind, nothing else has got close to freaking me out than this event: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/i/7/record_wind_speed_-_13_february_1989.pdf...

I was a six year old kid, but I’ll never forget the sound of that wind or the look on my dads face!

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 September 2018 22:25:45

The GFS 12Z continues the trend of very strong winds with soon-to-be Storm Bronagh. The only difference is it brings her slightly further south, with the centre of the low tracking across central England.

https://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180918;time=18;ext=114;file=hgt500-1000;sess=e44ba82c08ac744e87c35d1358f21629;


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 September 2018 06:43:31
I’m supposed to be flying on Sunday. Cancelled flights would be very annoying.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
doctormog
19 September 2018 06:48:03
Ali’s amber warning area has been updated to include this area and I can’t say I am looking forward to this afternoon. I note that all the Irish Sea ferry crossings have also been cancelled.
Joe Bloggs
19 September 2018 08:48:19

I’m supposed to be flying on Sunday. Cancelled flights would be very annoying.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I am too! 

Whats the likelihood of flights being cancelled?

I have experienced turbulence before but never attempted to land in 70 mph + winds.

I’ll expect a very bumpy landing regardless... I didn’t usually think flights tended to be cancelled in high winds.

Gulp. 

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