Not Richardabdn giving that report........?

Helene tracking across Ireland on Monday as post-tropical storm

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

but with a small but significant chance of 40mph wind speeds as far away as central S England

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023352.shtml?mltoa34#contents

Florence pt2 is all about rainfall and land flooding with the forecast 40" looking only too probable. By Wednesday Florence has recurved and is back on the Atlantic heading our way again as post-tropical storm. It doesn't seem worth posting in the model output thread with two of these storms active within a few days of each other!

Isaac dead, Joyce moribund, a new low-level un-named threat in southern Caribbean

Well the models really screwed up on Helene's development. My video looks pretty embarrassing given what actually happened. Kudos to the guys at the NHC that got the intensity pretty much spot on despite all the models suggesting a much more intense and much later transitioning storm.

No need to be embarresd Q, I watched your video and found it very intresting and appritiate your enthusiasm on here for these anomalies and their potential! Helene is still going to be a significant weather system for the UK of course, gales in some places, I will be watching with intrest as it passes over, what ever the weather. Its starting to feel quite humid out there already. 

As Rich Mt wrote, there's nothing to be embarrassed about - the weather will do that to the best. As late as yesterday evening, NOAA was showing a 60% chance of TS force winds for my area. MetEireann is now predicting winds merely reaching to "fresh". So you weren't alone.

Some of this footage is astounding. In a major city like HK, which i would argue is more developed than New York.

Imagine if a storm like this had hit NY? There would be Channel 4 documentaries coming out of every orifice

the warm core in Helene is still visible

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Does look like the storm briefly did transition to post tropical but then transitioned back to subtropical or tropical like. Even if that's the case the post tropical period was enough for the NOAA to loose interest in the storm, so it is as likely to be considered tropical as a medicane would be.

I was thinking the satellite presentation did not look completely extratropical.

Not much going on here as the system passes over. Gusty at times with some sporadic bursts of rain. Uncommonly dark though under a dense sheet of low/mid-level stratiform cloud and very humid.

For the first time since july 31st there are no tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in the world (as distinct from tropical depressions). 

But although the Atlantic is likely to stay quiet, due to Saharan dust, the Caribbean and the west coast of Mexico need watching.

Concerning that the models are increasingly keen on some E Pac to Caribbean enhanced vertical instability (upward motion) for late Sep and some way into October; that's added support for Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico TC development right at the time when it becomes seasonally most favoured anyway.

What's more, there are some exceptionally high SSTs in parts of those two seas at the moment. I'd not be surprised to see a category 5 develop.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/a-possible-formation-of-medicane-in-the-tyrhenian-sea-on-thursday-sept-20th/

One for the Medicane season Q?

Could be one of the most impressive on record given the ingredients in place.

I've really lapsed when it comes to medicane watching haven't I! 

Thanks for pointing this out, it does definitely look impressive although very unorthodox in the way it forms.

Medicanes usually progress through a fairly prescriptive process of Cold core upper level cutoff low -> Subtropical disturbance -> Warm core propagating upwards.

The upper level cold low doesn't really seem to exist in this case or if it does its very weak. This suggests the storm may be powered by unusually high SSTs which is more like a conventional TC than a medicane.

Blob of convection in the Med at the moment but no circulation yet.

Models have really climbed down on developing the Medicane due to land interaction.

After a rest, three disturbances to watch. The one off the coast of Africa seems to have the best chance of long term developmeny but that'll take time. One nearer the Caribbean given low chances, and more interestingly for the UK, a 'zombie Florence' getting organised from Florence's remnants and expected to form a cut-off low in the N Atlantic. Now there's a challenge for naming storms!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

GFS charts already show this zombie as a small feature but it gets a sudden boost in a week's time to full hurricane status - is that the result of it being joined by one of the other disturbances? But even hen it stays in situ for several days.

These three continue to develop and there's a minor disturbance off the Bahamas,

The disturbance near the Caribbean has perked up more than was expected and become TD11, but still not forecast as a major threat. It could easily get swept up by 99I off Africa which looks much more potent in days to come.

98L* in the North Atlantic also given significant chances of development from non-tropical to tropical storm but not for the moment going anywhere. It could however affect us by pusing tropical air in our direction.

A toss-up as to which claims the title of Kirk first.

EDIT: At least, I think this is 98L but that title could have been given to the lesser storm nearer the Bahamas, on the grounds that it's close enough to the States to be worth investigating

Stormchaser looks correct in his prediction. A lot of activity popping up now

My son and his girlfriend have been in Cancun for a week now and report they’ve had nothing but blue sky!  They still have another week there but at least the weather’s behaved for half their holiday. 

My daughter, sister and I are off to Zante on Friday, where the current weather is sunny with 30c but the forecast for next week is much cooler, so I’m hoping that’s wrong!  

Light rain.

10.2c

1016.7mb falling

4.4mm

Its down to a lack of hurricane activity why this  has been such an issue over the last several years.

We’ve experienced it almost everywhere we’ve been in the Caribbean but never as bad as this year.  We came back from the Dominican Republic two weeks ago and it was really bad when we arrived but they erected a boom with nets in the sea, a few metres from the shore line to stop it coming onto the beach and it was working well when we left.  

Daniel says it’s a similar situation in Cancun with hotel staff working through the day to clear it!