Summer 2018 general chat· Page 22

lanky
Advanced Member

02 September 2018 15:39:25

That's excellent Martin. Really shows the quality of our summers. You can see the years where it's been a south east affair and others that have been more widespread. The contrast between 1976 and 1977 is stark. I particularly remember 1977 as being a pretty awful summer but most of the late 70s and up to about 1982 were nothing to write home about.

Originally Posted by: GezM

Out of interest I also did a graphic showing which areas of the UK have shown the biggest changes in "Manchester" Summer Index between 1961 and 2016 based on the trend increase between the start and end dates (i.e linear regression smoothing out all the peaks and troughs in the year on year data) and this is below (clickable)

Again there is a SE/NW split with the biggest increases in the SE

What was weird was the exceptionally big increases in the Thames Estuary (N Kent/Sheerness by the looks of it) and also on Teesside by the coast around Hartlepool/Middlesborough/Sunderland as far as I can tell

When I looked into which of the variables (Max temp, Rain Days, Sunshine Hours) had generated the big increase it turned out to be the sunshine hours

I can only assume that this was industrial smoke from the earlier days in these areas giving way to clean air. The "trend" increases were well over 100 hours per year for summer totals

Edited by user 02 September 2018 15:41:27 | Reason: Not specified

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Bolty
Advanced Member Topic Starter

02 September 2018 15:41:37

#527

Out of interest I also did a graphic showing which areas of the UK have shown the biggest changes in "Manchester" Summer Index between 1961 and 2016 based on the trend increase between the start and end dates (i.e linear regression smoothing out all the peaks and troughs in the year on year data) and this is below

Again there is a SE/NW split with the biggest increases in the SE

What was weird was the exceptionally big increases in the Thames Estuary (N Kent/Sheerness by the looks of it) and also on Teesside by the coast around Hartlepool/Middlesborough/Sunderland as far as I can tell

When I looked into which of the variables (Max temp, Rain Days, Sunshine Hours) had generated the big increase it turned out to be the sunshine hours

I can only assume that this was industrial smoke from the earlier days in these areas giving way to clean air. The "trend" increases were well over 100 hours per year for summer totals

Originally Posted by: lanky

That really backs up what the Met Office say about climate change effects in the UK. They argue that the South East will see things hotter, drier and sunnier, whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland see little change (maybe even going a bit worse). Recent years must have been great for summer lovers in Kent.

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

doctormog
Advanced Member

02 September 2018 15:44:30

#528

That is a fantastic couple of posts and analysis you have put together Martin. As they say a picture paints a thousand words. Thanks for spending the time doing that.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

Phil 2804
Guest

02 September 2018 15:45:16

#529

Those are the facts I posted. It your posts that consist of rubbish, every single one of them.

There is absolutely no rational explanation as to why the weather should consistently be poorer at the weekends than the weekdays. No reason why it should only be warm and sunny during weekday hours.

Try sitting outside or doing anything in 15C, overcast and rain like there was for four out of the past five Sundays. It's utterly miserable conditions.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn

Purposely forgetting the two weekends of the 22nd July and 4th August which were dry and saw the warmest temperatures in Aberdeen for several years. Which you wrote off as miserable. Or the present weekend again dry and warm with some sunshine.

I'm surprised you ever actually leave the house, and depending on what your doing you can have fun in the rain. I think back to a family picnic at Haddo House in July 2014, we'd planned for months, the week upto it was the driest and warmest of the summer, yet on the Sunday it peed it down. It still went ahead and the day itself was very memorable, the rain added to the fun of it.

severnside
Advanced Member

02 September 2018 20:43:48

#530

A tremendous summer in this part of the world. It's had the lot. High temperatures, minimal rainfall, thunderstorms. Perfect in my eyes. Summer is continuing this weekend as well. It doesn't beat 1976 IMO, but it's a healthy second. Today is just glorious in my part of the world. As I get older, I much prefer the heat and warmth of summer.

Originally Posted by: Jason H

You are very lucky in that South East corner. Its almost like a different country weather wise,We had a good June, July but August was very dull with average temps, bar the first few days. Again this weekend promised a lot, it wasn't bad, but the lack of sunshine just spoils it for me. Like you, I like the heat and warmth of summer, sadly it seems to avoid Gloucestershire these days more often.

Col
Advanced Member

03 September 2018 05:16:38

#531

Purposely forgetting the two weekends of the 22nd July and 4th August which were dry and saw the warmest temperatures in Aberdeen for several years. Which you wrote off as miserable. Or the present weekend again dry and warm with some sunshine.

I'm surprised you ever actually leave the house, and depending on what your doing you can have fun in the rain. I think back to a family picnic at Haddo House in July 2014, we'd planned for months, the week upto it was the driest and warmest of the summer, yet on the Sunday it peed it down. It still went ahead and the day itself was very memorable, the rain added to the fun of it.

Originally Posted by: Phil 2804

And as I have already pointed out his own figues for sunshine don't show any trend for weekends to be less sunny. Neither day is the dulledst of the week and Saturday is actually sunnier than the weekly average!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

xioni2
Advanced Member

03 September 2018 10:28:43

#532

I can only assume that this was industrial smoke from the earlier days in these areas giving way to clean air. The "trend" increases were well over 100 hours per year for summer totals

Originally Posted by: lanky

Great stuff and I agree that reduction of industrial pollution (mostly from the near Continent) is the most likely explanation. West Europe has seen a significant reduction of aerosols in the 70s and 80s, while CEE saw the same in the 90s and 00s after the collapse of communism.

Back to our summer and this weekend was one of the best of the whole summer. It was perfect for everything really, cycling, sunbathing, bbq

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

03 September 2018 11:39:09

#533

Hi Martin

Glad you liked it !

It would be straightforward (but time consuming) to add May to the JJA analyses and of course the numbers would no longer conform to Kevin's Manchester Summer Index

The problem is the data store only goes up to 2016 and my guess is that by the time 2017/18 are added the real summer just gone will be a distant memory we will just be telling our grandchildren about

There is all sorts of data on the CEDA datastore (just Google CEDA Meteorological data) so it may be hidden elsewhere. I had to register to get the UKCP09 stuff for my graphic but this was just a formality done via email but there is other stuff on there (called MIDAS if I recall) that might be more current but it wouldn't let me in without a reference to a grant based research project reference !

Hope that answers

Originally Posted by: lanky

I should have made it clear (even simply mentioned it!) that I was only thinking for the M-J-J-A period for 2018. I was wondering if the perception of the early summer being better for more NW'ern areas, which switched to the SE as the summer wore on, was borne out in the stats.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

speckledjim
Advanced Member

03 September 2018 11:46:42

#534

Purposely forgetting the two weekends of the 22nd July and 4th August which were dry and saw the warmest temperatures in Aberdeen for several years. Which you wrote off as miserable. Or the present weekend again dry and warm with some sunshine.

I'm surprised you ever actually leave the house, and depending on what your doing you can have fun in the rain. I think back to a family picnic at Haddo House in July 2014, we'd planned for months, the week upto it was the driest and warmest of the summer, yet on the Sunday it peed it down. It still went ahead and the day itself was very memorable, the rain added to the fun of it.

Originally Posted by: Phil 2804

Just checked the met office stats and Aberdeen was warmer and sunnier than average for June and July (aug stats not available). It doesn't matter what the reality is, all he ever does is moan.

Thorner, West Yorkshire

Journalism is organised gossip

Gavin D
Advanced Member

03 September 2018 12:18:55

#535

The met office has announced summer 2018 was the hottest on record for England and the joint hottest on record for the UK

https://t.co/wALoRW7dOE

Phil 2804
Guest

03 September 2018 14:33:57

#536

The met office has announced summer 2018 was the hottest on record for England and the joint hottest on record for the UK

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

">https://t.co/wALoRW7dOE

No surprise really. An average August aside nothing can dent the fact that from end of April onwards to the 9th of August is the best spell of weather I can remember in all my 39 years.

The Weather Outlook