The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
27 August 2018 08:30:22

 

In the space of a week (maybe just over) we've slipped from second place down to sixth place, and may even still fall to seventh or eighth before the month is out yet. Very, very disappointing.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It would had finished 296 if was May to July as he put yesterday.  Why August have to ruin a summer and data for us?  If was August 2003 this yer then his index would had well exceed 301 by now.

Hippydave
27 August 2018 09:42:02

 

I did have all the UK in mind when I made my comments as even the far SE has lukewarm, cloudy summers. London has an average high of 23.5C in July which is of course perfectly pleasant but would be considered very cool to most people in the world. It is also very cloudy, only 3 months of the year exceed 200 hours of sun on average and no month exceeds 50% of possible sunshine. 

The only exception to this is the immediate south coast where summers are somewhat sunny. In general though there is nowhere in the UK that I would consider to have reliably warm and sunny summers, not even close. You need to go a good few hundred miles south before you get to that.

The dryness part is right, of course, but then that applies to much of England, including this part of the world - my nearest weather station has an average of 603mm a year which is 1mm more than London Heathrow.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Must admit that bit surprised me - closest one I could find with monthly and annual stats near me was East Malling and that's up at 647.8mm for the year. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/u107dpz9j 

Perhaps my preference for cooler more varied weather is colouring my opinion more than I thought


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

KevBrads1
30 August 2018 15:33:26

Summers in order with the best at the top

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
2018 270 (up to 29th August)
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

xioni2
30 August 2018 20:31:09

So this glorious summer continues after the short break with the models looking very blocked.

Today's EC46 update should be a blockfest for Sep and I think the extended summer (May-Sep) will be unprecedented in the historical record in terms of blocking.

It's possible or even likely that the blocking had/has a low frequency tropical origin and that forcing was interrupted in late July and later in August by kelvin wave induced convection in the tropical west Pacific. 

Similar activity could of course return in H2 Sep, bun in the meantime the next 10 days look fantastic.

 

KevBrads1
31 August 2018 19:25:24

Summers in order with the best at the top

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Solar Cycles
31 August 2018 19:56:53

So this glorious summer continues after the short break with the models looking very blocked.

Today's EC46 update should be a blockfest for Sep and I think the extended summer (May-Sep) will be unprecedented in the historical record in terms of blocking.

It's possible or even likely that the blocking had/has a low frequency tropical origin and that forcing was interrupted in late July and later in August by kelvin wave induced convection in the tropical west Pacific. 

Similar activity could of course return in H2 Sep, bun in the meantime the next 10 days look fantastic.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The infamous EC46........... I pay absolutely no attention to it whatsoever it’s canon fodder material IMO. Of course it may well be right but I think the signs are for blocking during the second half of the month to become established more to the North of the U.K., whether that means we end up with a southerly tracking jet barrelling over us is another question.

Gavin D
01 September 2018 08:10:11
The met office has revised the UK's highest temp up to 35.6C on July 27th in Felsham in Suffolk
KevBrads1
01 September 2018 17:43:07

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom
1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
2013 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
2014 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

01 September 2018 18:28:59

The met office has revised the UK's highest temp up to 35.6C on July 27th in Felsham in Suffolk

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They have also removed the 33.5C maximum at Dersingham Bog on 23 July. I must say I was surprised to see a bog record the highest temperature of the day. They must have decided it was a faulty reading. The maximum for 23 July is now 33.4C at Cambridge Botanic Garden which equals the date record from 1989.

Bertwhistle
01 September 2018 18:40:05

 

They have also removed the 33.5C maximum at Dersingham Bog on 23 July. I must say I was surprised to see a bog record the highest temperature of the day. They must have decided it was a faulty reading. The maximum for 23 July is now 33.4C at Cambridge Botanic Garden which equals the date record from 1989.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Is the weather station actually in the bog, and not at the restored Royal station?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Sharp Green Fox
01 September 2018 20:39:36

Summers in order with the best at the top

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Thanks Kevin.

So 6th place in the end. Probably about right. For a long time I thought 2018 mirrored 1976, but during August I felt it had most mirrored 1989 and find it interesting to note that it was not that far in front of 1989.

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 September 2018 22:46:47
Overall an excellent meteorological summer. An excellent June, a very good July and a good start to August, but sadly it went a bit pear-shaped after that, which I think has cast a very slight shadow on this summer. May-July was stunning, probably by far the best May-July period in UK meteorological records! Still, not a summer we can complain at by any means.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

richardabdn
02 September 2018 08:02:30

Absolutely a summer we can complain about if, like most, we work 9am-5pm Monday to Friday.

For those, like myself, who do that, this summer was awful. Sitting suffocating in an office all week when it's warm and sunny outside then getting crap, cool cloudy weather at the weekend was just excruciating. This was especially true during the second half of the summer with August weekends seeing even less sunshine than during the woefully dull August 2008.

Even during the first half only Saturday was good. There were just two mostly sunny Sundays the entire summer (24th June and 1st July). Sunday 10th June was one of the foulest summer days I can remember with thick fog. Deeply unpleasant and then there were four washout Sundays out of five to end the summer.

Like 2006 it will not be a summer I look back on fondly. 2003 and 2013 were by far better summers despite the overall stats not looking so great for the latter. It's the weekends that count and they were far better in 2013. Not only that but it was possible to escape for better weather on some of the poor days such as Saturday 8th June - cool and grey here but warm and sunny in Edinburgh - as well as Saturday 20th July - dismal here but fine up on the Moray Firth. This year the gloom was everywhere within reach of a day trip.

Sun averages by day of week

Mon: 5.76
Tue: 4.95
Wed: 6.89
Thu: 9.08
Fri: 7.96
Sat: 6.91
Sun: 4.97

So as expected that is a poor below average total for Sunday. Would have felt like a completely different summer if Thursday and Friday had been swapped with Saturday and Sunday but that is never the case. The weekend curse is ever present these days and there's just no rational explanation for it.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
02 September 2018 08:19:28

 

Mon: 5.76
Tue: 4.95
Wed: 6.89
Thu: 9.08
Fri: 7.96
Sat: 6.91
Sun: 4.97

So as expected that is a poor below average total for Sunday. Would have felt like a completely different summer if Thursday and Friday had been swapped with Saturday and Sunday but that is never the case. The weekend curse is ever present these days and there's just no rational explanation for it.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

Even your own figures don't back up the idea of a 'weekend curse'. The average daily sunshine is 6.65hrs and Saturday is higher than that. And Tuesday is still less sunny than Sunday! And if we average Sat/Sun we get 5.94hrs, less than the weekly average but hardly dramatic.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

lanky
02 September 2018 08:37:01

 

Thanks Kevin.

So 6th place in the end. Probably about right. For a long time I thought 2018 mirrored 1976, but during August I felt it had most mirrored 1989 and find it interesting to note that it was not that far in front of 1989.

Originally Posted by: Sharp Green Fox 

The Met Office UKCP09 (now CEDA) have an archive of UK weather data of very high resolution (5km grid squares) which includes all the variables Kevin uses in his Manchester Summer Index - namely Sunshine Hours, Rain Days and Mean Maximum Temperature

This database has over 10,000 data points per entry and with some of the entries consisting of daily data going back over 50 years the volumes are mind boggling (many billion records all told)

I used Kevin's formula

(SI=10*(mean max temp + sun Hrs/67 - rain days/8)

To construct a "Manchester" Summer Index for every grid square from 1961-2016 (sadly no earlier or later data exists yet) to show a pictorial presentation of al summers in that range

https://images2.imgbox.com/b9/7e/YZ0JGDJt_o.gif

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 September 2018 08:54:21
That's excellent Martin. Really shows the quality of our summers. You can see the years where it's been a south east affair and others that have been more widespread. The contrast between 1976 and 1977 is stark. I particularly remember 1977 as being a pretty awful summer but most of the late 70s and up to about 1982 were nothing to write home about.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 September 2018 09:09:02
Very good graphic! Clearly shows the good and the awful summers. It also shows perfectly the difference in the quality of all summers between the NW and SE.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 September 2018 09:16:47
Shows just how horrendous 2012 was everywhere. Notably worse on that count than 2007 and 2008.

1984 is another fascinating one - real South West affair, I remember it well has had summer holiday in Cornwall.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 September 2018 12:26:26

The readings for the summer of 2018 recorded on my weather station presented on a combo graph. You can see how good June, July and the first week of August was, before things went a bit arse-over-tit.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmFrRe9XcAA8vct.jpg


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Saint Snow
02 September 2018 12:49:48

 

The Met Office UKCP09 (now CEDA) have an archive of UK weather data of very high resolution (5km grid squares) which includes all the variables Kevin uses in his Manchester Summer Index - namely Sunshine Hours, Rain Days and Mean Maximum Temperature

This database has over 10,000 data points per entry and with some of the entries consisting of daily data going back over 50 years the volumes are mind boggling (many billion records all told)

I used Kevin's formula

(SI=10*(mean max temp + sun Hrs/67 - rain days/8)

To construct a "Manchester" Summer Index for every grid square from 1961-2016 (sadly no earlier or later data exists yet) to show a pictorial presentation of al summers in that range

https://images2.imgbox.com/b9/7e/YZ0JGDJt_o.gif

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

 

That's superb, Martin. Thanks for the effort you must have put in. As has been said, it's interesting to note the summers where the SE has done way better than the rest of the UK, and those where the good weather was more evenly distributed. 

Would it theoretically be possible to do a similar graphic for the May-June-July-August period, with a frame for each month? (Once the figures are available)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Phil 2804
02 September 2018 13:43:19

Absolutely a summer we can complain about if, like most, we work 9am-5pm Monday to Friday.

For those, like myself, who do that, this summer was awful. Sitting suffocating in an office all week when it's warm and sunny outside then getting crap, cool cloudy weather at the weekend was just excruciating. This was especially true during the second half of the summer with August weekends seeing even less sunshine than during the woefully dull August 2008.

Even during the first half only Saturday was good. There were just two mostly sunny Sundays the entire summer (24th June and 1st July). Sunday 10th June was one of the foulest summer days I can remember with thick fog. Deeply unpleasant and then there were four washout Sundays out of five to end the summer.

Like 2006 it will not be a summer I look back on fondly. 2003 and 2013 were by far better summers despite the overall stats not looking so great for the latter. It's the weekends that count and they were far better in 2013. Not only that but it was possible to escape for better weather on some of the poor days such as Saturday 8th June - cool and grey here but warm and sunny in Edinburgh - as well as Saturday 20th July - dismal here but fine up on the Moray Firth. This year the gloom was everywhere within reach of a day trip.

Sun averages by day of week

Mon: 5.76
Tue: 4.95
Wed: 6.89
Thu: 9.08
Fri: 7.96
Sat: 6.91
Sun: 4.97

So as expected that is a poor below average total for Sunday. Would have felt like a completely different summer if Thursday and Friday had been swapped with Saturday and Sunday but that is never the case. The weekend curse is ever present these days and there's just no rational explanation for it.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

 

Rubbish, absolute total rubbish. 

There's no rational explanation because your reasoning isn't rational. Text from my Mum saying that my aunt and uncle were round for the day and they spent the afternoon sitting out in their garden (north Aberdeen) as it was a nice day before having dinner together. 

As I type its 18c and overcast in Basel same as Saturday yet we've sat outside for lunch, gone about in jeans and polo shirt and visited a museum. In the same circumstances you probably wouldn't have even left the house. But then you wrote off the warmest day in Aberdeen for several years because it wasn't wall to wall sunshine and you described the sunniest June for many years as a permacast hell.

 

Jason H
02 September 2018 14:24:22

A tremendous summer in this part of the world. It's had the lot. High temperatures, minimal rainfall, thunderstorms. Perfect in my eyes. Summer is continuing this weekend as well. It doesn't beat 1976 IMO, but it's a healthy second. Today is just glorious in my part of the world. As I get older, I much prefer the heat and warmth of summer.


I feel great! so maybe I might just

Search for a 9 to 5, if I strive

Then maybe I'll stay alive

Bexleyheath, Kent.

richardabdn
02 September 2018 14:38:52

 

 

Rubbish, absolute total rubbish. 

There's no rational explanation because your reasoning isn't rational. Text from my Mum saying that my aunt and uncle were round for the day and they spent the afternoon sitting out in their garden (north Aberdeen) as it was a nice day before having dinner together. 

As I type its 18c and overcast in Basel same as Saturday yet we've sat outside for lunch, gone about in jeans and polo shirt and visited a museum. In the same circumstances you probably wouldn't have even left the house. But then you wrote off the warmest day in Aberdeen for several years because it wasn't wall to wall sunshine and you described the sunniest June for many years as a permacast hell.

 

Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 

Those are the facts I posted. It your posts that consist of rubbish, every single one of them.

There is absolutely no rational explanation as to why the weather should consistently be poorer at the weekends than the weekdays. No reason why it should only be warm and sunny during weekday hours. 

Try sitting outside or doing anything in 15C, overcast and rain like there was for four out of the past five Sundays. It's utterly miserable conditions.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

KevBrads1
02 September 2018 14:42:24

. The contrast between 1976 and 1977 is stark. I particularly remember 1977 as being a pretty awful summer

Originally Posted by: GezM 

I don't think that summer was that bad the further north. The index for Manchester was 223, which is pretty OK

For the north of Scotland, summer 1977 was a sunny summer not that far behind 1976 figures and rainfall wise, it was one of the drier summers.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

lanky
02 September 2018 15:12:10

 

 

That's superb, Martin. Thanks for the effort you must have put in. As has been said, it's interesting to note the summers where the SE has done way better than the rest of the UK, and those where the good weather was more evenly distributed. 

Would it theoretically be possible to do a similar graphic for the May-June-July-August period, with a frame for each month? (Once the figures are available)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Hi Martin

Glad you liked it !

It would be straightforward (but time consuming) to add May to the JJA analyses and of course the numbers would no longer conform to Kevin's Manchester Summer Index

The problem is the data store only goes up to 2016 and my guess is that by the time 2017/18 are added the real summer just gone will be a distant memory we will just be telling our grandchildren about

There is all sorts of data on the CEDA datastore (just Google CEDA Meteorological data) so it may be hidden elsewhere. I had to register to get the UKCP09 stuff for my graphic but this was just a formality done via email but there is other stuff on there (called MIDAS if I recall) that might be more current but it wouldn't let me in without a reference to a grant based research project reference !

Hope that answers


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

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