The Weather Outlook

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Downpour
  • Downpour
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 8:43:47 PM

Summer June thru September

Autumn October and November

Winter December thru March

Spring April and May

That’s the way our weather is going. 

Thoughts? 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

LeedsLad123
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 8:54:18 PM
Summer June-September

Autumn October-January

Spring February-April

Winter does not exist.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
johncs2016
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 9:08:44 PM

Summer June thru September

Autumn October and November

Winter December thru March

Spring April and May

That’s the way our weather is going. 

Thoughts? 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I would agree with that, but with the following modifications:

Summer: May to September, minus August

Autumn: August and October and December

Winter: November and then January to March

Spring: Doesn't really exist because early April is often more like winter with late April being more like summer.

I've moved November out of Autumn and into winter because recent Novembers have actually been cold, but dry and frosty.

I've moved December out of winter and into autumn because most Decembers in recent years have generally been mild, hence the reason why we hardly ever get snow at Christmas.

Finally, I've moved August out of summer and into autumn due to the fact that most Augusts (including this month) in recent years have been so poor.

To me, that gives an even better representation of what our weather has actually been like in recent years.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Downpour
  • Downpour
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 9:35:43 PM

We had quite a bit of snow this December, although Christmas - as ever - was mild. 

March has been a wintry month in several recent years - notably 2013 and 2018.


Chingford

London E4

147ft

johncs2016
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 9:55:51 PM

My year actually has two summer seasons because of the fact that we go from summer into July and then into autumn in August before being thrust back into summer in September and since we then return to autumn in October, my year also has two autumn seasons as well.

It is true that last December was cold with a lot of wintry weather. Last Christmas was mostly mild but then, it got colder with snow here in Edinburgh by the end of Christmas Day before that reached Hawick in the Scottish Borders (where I was at the time) by Boxing Day.

However, last December was the exception to the rule in recent years and from 2013 onwards, December has never really been a particularly cold and wintry month apart from last year, with December 2015 being the best example of that. That is why I moved December into autumn in my year.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

LeedsLad123
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 10:14:47 PM
Most winter months in recent years have been mild.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 8:11:25 AM
Look at the stats for recent years and the answer is actually:

Spring: March-May

Summer: June-August

Autumn: Sept-Nov

Winter: Dec-Feb


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
briggsy6
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 8:49:26 AM

Every year is different so impossible to generalise.


Location: Uxbridge
Gavin P
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 9:09:54 AM

I'm not sure about September really. 

There was a time about 10-15 years ago where every September seemed to be warm or very warm but things have changed a bit this decade. Looking at the CET's for September since 2010 we come out with:

2010: 13.8

2011: 15.1

2012: 13.0

2013: 13.7

2014: 15.1

2015: 12.6

2016: 16.0

2017: 13.5

 

Three very warm September's and five average or cool September's.

It does look as though September 2018 will be added to the very warm side of things... But September has certainly had more "variability" this decade than it did in the 2000's for example...


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 9:28:10 AM

Spring: Doesn't really exist because early April is often more like winter with late April being more like summer.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Completely agree with this.  I can't recall the last time we had a proper spring with a couple of months of mild and pleasant temperatures, and gentle warmth as the sun starts to make its increasing presence felt.  This year we certainly went straight from winter to high summer.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

johncs2016
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 9:29:25 AM

I'm not sure about September really. 

There was a time about 10-15 years ago where every September seemed to be warm or very warm but things have changed a bit this decade. Looking at the CET's for September since 2010 we come out with:

2010: 13.8

2011: 15.1

2012: 13.0

2013: 13.7

2014: 15.1

2015: 12.6

2016: 16.0

2017: 13.5

 

Three very warm September's and five average or cool September's.

It does look as though September 2018 will be added to the very warm side of things... But September has certainly had more "variability" this decade than it did in the 2000's for example...

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Of course, we can't also forget that last September was actually cool and unsettled and indeed, I can recall you mentioning that in one of your recent videos. However, that just appears to be an exception to the rule these days and if the latest model is right, then this September could go on to show that up even more.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bertwhistle
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 12:41:43 PM

I'm not sure about September really. 

There was a time about 10-15 years ago where every September seemed to be warm or very warm but things have changed a bit this decade. Looking at the CET's for September since 2010 we come out with:

2010: 13.8

2011: 15.1

2012: 13.0

2013: 13.7

2014: 15.1

2015: 12.6

2016: 16.0

2017: 13.5

 

Three very warm September's and five average or cool September's.

It does look as though September 2018 will be added to the very warm side of things... But September has certainly had more "variability" this decade than it did in the 2000's for example...

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I have the CET average at 13.6; is that right? If so, we could say since 2010 there have been 3 warm, 3 very close to average, and just 2 cooler (>0.5°C below).

The late 80s and early 90s were disappointing overall but the spell you quote is indeed unusual in that there are no months in the range 0.5 to 1°C warmer than average- none in the 14s, put simply. Almost as if you can have it rare, or well done, but nothing in between.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gavin P
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 1:44:53 PM

 

I have the CET average at 13.6; is that right? If so, we could say since 2010 there have been 3 warm, 3 very close to average, and just 2 cooler (>0.5°C below).

The late 80s and early 90s were disappointing overall but the spell you quote is indeed unusual in that there are no months in the range 0.5 to 1°C warmer than average- none in the 14s, put simply. Almost as if you can have it rare, or well done, but nothing in between.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yeah that's right.

In the late 90's and most of the 2000's nearly all the Septembers used to be in the 14's and 15's so September seems to have a lot more "variation" this decade than it did before.

We are due a 14C CET September (as we've not had one this decade) so maybe 2018 will deliver.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Bolty
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 1:54:46 PM
I just don't agree with people who call September a summer month, and I suppose it's because I judge seasons on more than just temperatures alone. September can indeed be very summery, but it just doesn't have the same quality as warmth/heat in June or July. The days are much shorter, the sun is much lower in the sky and nature is tired and worn out.

It's the same with March. Unless you get a very severe cold pattern, a cold spell in March just doesn't have the same feel as one in December or January - longer brighter days and the first blooms of spring.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Bertwhistle
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 2:41:15 PM

I just don't agree with people who call September a summer month, and I suppose it's because I judge seasons on more than just temperatures alone. September can indeed be very summery, but it just doesn't have the same quality as warmth/heat in June or July. The days are much shorter, the sun is much lower in the sky and nature is tired and worn out.

It's the same with March. Unless you get a very severe cold pattern, a cold spell in March just doesn't have the same feel as one in December or January - longer brighter days and the first blooms of spring.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

I know what you mean Scott- in fact, the sun is higher and the days longer in April than in September, and I doubt most people would suggest 2007 or 2011 made April a summer month = official. 

The seasonal lag in mid latitudes and especially on western seaboards has led to various definitions of seasonal boundaries. There is an official astronomical summer, (this year 21/6 till 22/9 inclusive- MetOffice), but this is a complete misnomer. In fact, astronomical relates to the sun, space, planets, celestial bodies, etc(from Greek astron, meaning star), not the crops, temperature or how we feel popping outside. In terms of the tilt of the Earth at various times of the year, the summer quarter of the year is broadly from 5th May to 5th August. Most of August in autumn! Sounds shocking doesn't it?  (Although our Scottish posters might concur, from what I've read this year). Similarly, winter in terms of day-length and solar elevation runs roughly from November 5th to Feb 5th.

In Scotland the school summer holidays included the whole of July this year and ended on 20th August. Sensible.

 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

LeedsLad123
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 3:29:18 PM

I just don't agree with people who call September a summer month, and I suppose it's because I judge seasons on more than just temperatures alone. September can indeed be very summery, but it just doesn't have the same quality as warmth/heat in June or July. The days are much shorter, the sun is much lower in the sky and nature is tired and worn out.

It's the same with March. Unless you get a very severe cold pattern, a cold spell in March just doesn't have the same feel as one in December or January - longer brighter days and the first blooms of spring.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It's a valid point but for me personally I place more emphasis on temperature than day length.. to a point. September and April are similar in terms of day length but April often still feels chilly or cold, snow is still possible, severe frosts can happen. That generally never happens in September.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
springsunshine
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 8:56:00 PM

Summer June thru September

Autumn October and November

Winter December thru March

Spring April and May

That’s the way our weather is going. 

Thoughts? 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Pretty much agree with that especially over the past decade,however if you take out the cold Decembers 2009,2010and 2017 one could argue that winter proper doesn`t arrive until after xmas,certainly down here most years December is an extended autumn month.

richardabdn
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 9:42:51 PM

Since the turn of the century it’s trending towards just two seasons here

 

March to May: Spring

June to February: Autumn

 

Also, recent Septembers have not been great. Just one good one out of the past four here and a mixed bag for the decade.

 

2010 – An awful, cool, dull and wet month

2011 – A continuation of the diabolical dull dross of summer for the first two thirds. Only the final third was warm, dry and sunny

2012 – Warm, dry and sunny start then autumnal cool, dry and crisp weather. The best recent September.

2013 – Mostly warm, dry and sunny. The last time there was a proper cold September night.

2014 – Revolting SE’ly grey fog bound muck like most of the abject horror show that was 2014

2015 – Cool, cloudy and unsettled apart from the final week.

2016 – Mostly warm, dry and sunny.

2017 – Dull and unsettled with the toxic combination of mild nights and cool days.

 

Only 2013, 2016 have seemed more like summer Septembers than autumnal Septembers to me although even warm and sunny September days do not feel like proper summer days due to the lower angle of the sun and dark nights. Come mid-September my back garden gets no sun in the evenings at all.

 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Brian Gaze
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 9:43:19 PM

 

Pretty much agree with that especially over the past decade,however if you take out the cold Decembers 2009,2010and 2017 one could argue that winter proper doesn`t arrive until after xmas,certainly down here most years December is an extended autumn month.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

According to the Met the UK mean temp was 0.2C above average:

The UK mean temperature was 4.1 °C, which is 0.2 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017/december

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

CreweCold
Thursday, August 30, 2018 2:43:37 AM

I just don't agree with people who call September a summer month, and I suppose it's because I judge seasons on more than just temperatures alone. September can indeed be very summery, but it just doesn't have the same quality as warmth/heat in June or July. The days are much shorter, the sun is much lower in the sky and nature is tired and worn out.

It's the same with March. Unless you get a very severe cold pattern, a cold spell in March just doesn't have the same feel as one in December or January - longer brighter days and the first blooms of spring.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Agree completely. 

In September, no matter how warm it is in regards to air temperature, the sun feels considerably weaker than it would with the same air temperatures in June. It's what makes September heat more bearable for me. Plus it's dark by 8pm and closer to half 7 by the middle and end of the month. 

The same principle is true for March. Yes, the air temperature can be cold but out of the wind and in the sun, it feels completely different to how it would in December/January. In my mind, winter is done by mid February as the strength of the sun starts to become more notable and days lengthen.

Summer is as good as over now, regardless of weather conditions over the next few weeks.

I'll just add that strictly speaking, for large swathes of the country (perhaps barring the S and SE) this summer has been mixed. A stunning June, a slightly less good July and a much cooler and wetter August (especially up here). We cannot add May and whatever September will bring to the summer as that'd make summer 5 months long. May is spring, September is autumn.

What does look fairly certain now is that we'll see some pretty nice colours on the trees appearing in the next few weeks. We could be looking at mid 20s with the trees beginning to take on their autumnal hues.


Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Chunky Pea
Thursday, August 30, 2018 11:08:28 AM

This is how the seasons should go.

Spring: April - June

Summer: July - September

Autumn: October - December

Winter: January - March. 

I tend to judge seasonal traits not just by day time temps, but night time temps also, and they nearly always seem to be at their warmest/ coldest in the Summer/Winter months that I propose above. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, August 30, 2018 4:23:28 PM

Just follow Sydney Smith's send-up of the French Revolutionary Calendar's names of months. Starting in October:

Wheezy, Sneezy, Freezy; Slippy, Drippy, Nippy; Showery, Flowery, Bowery; Wheaty, Heaty and Sweety


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

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