Not sure why you should say that Gavin. GW's projection is showing the CET to be at around 17.1C by 19th August. That is quite a fall from where we are now, but there will still be 12 days of August left at that point. If temperatures recover sufficiently during this time then the warmest summer in the CET series is still possible.

The key temperature for August to break the CET summer series record is 18.2C. If this is achieved then the overall CET for summer 2018 will be 17.80C (16.1+19.1+18.2=53.4/3=17.80), beating the current record of 17.77C of 1976. Admittedly it's a big ask, but it is possible. And after all the things that have happened this summer, almost anything is possible!

Possible but extremely difficult. If we were at 17.1 by the 19th and wanted to rise to 18.2, that's a very, very big ask and would need one serious heat wave in the final week-to-10 days of the month. I doubt a warm anticyclonic spell would be enough. It would need to be a prolonged hot southerly.

Unless the models are overplaying the coolness, I think it's very likely that we will fall short. 2018 will most likely be our second or third warmest summer on record, which is still an amazing achievement!

But the current output is at a weekend and I always think it’s less reliable than weekdays!  Let’s see what Monday’s output shows!  

Agreed. Both GFS and ECM continue to show an improvement down the line, admittedly it's all FI but the trend is drier and warmer in the south compared to the north. Far too early to be unduly pessimistic with regard to where summer 2018 may end up in the CET summer series.

Met Office Hadley     19.80c.   Anomaly   3.6c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                  19.86c    Anomaly      3.64c

Netweather               20.64c.   Anomaly      4.45c

Canvey Island         21.8c.    Anomaly     3.6c

Mansfield Woodhouse  19.8c    Anomaly    3.2c

Peasedown St John   20.1c    Anomaly   1.78c.

Mean Of  10 Stations    20.02c.    

I'm very surprised I'm right down near the bottom of that list. I still went for a comfortably warmer than average month. Still, it's probably a good thing that we don't know what other people have gone for (unless they specifically post it) as it would quite likely influence one's judgement, rather than simply going for what they felt was best.

Almost everyone has gone for above average again this month!  

Even though the August cet is currently in record breaking territory as GW has pointed out and the models suggest there is a huge change coming in next couple of days and the chances now of beating 1976 are slim to none 18.2c or higher for august is a huge ask and tomorrow could very well be the last time this year we see 30c+ not complaining though as 2018 looks like coming in at 2nd place 3rd at worst.It could be a very long time before the uk experiences such a summer again 42 years between 1976 and now.

That makes a lot of sense. I've not done this before and hope it remains light-hearted! The 'strategic predicting' thing reminds me of a football score prediction contest we once had at work. There was money involved and things got a bit 'heavy' towards the end of the season with arguments ensuing over what was seen as some people not playing fairly. Rather spoiled it really.

The gap is closing and the tide is rising. We will get another crack at 1976 in the next few years 😊

Met Office Hadley         19.9c.       Anomaly      3.8c.  Provisional to  6th.

Metcheck                      20.12c      Anomaly      3.90c

Netweather                   20.75c      Anomaly      4.56c

Canvey Island              22.1c        Anomaly       3.9c

Darwen                       19.7c        Anomaly       3.22c

Mansfield Woodhouse 20.4c   Anomaly   3.77c

Peasedown St John   20.0c. Anomaly  1.68c

Treviskey Redruth   18.0c   Anomaly   1.48c.

Mean Of 10 Stations   20.08c

Well, those at the high end of the predictions this month have been cast a line of hope by the GFS 06z, which has more of an Atlantic trough + Euro ridge pattern for early-mid next week and then manages to set up a heatwave via HP centred UK-North Sea for a great many days.

It fits well to the coming Nino-type tropical cycle, but might be a bit on the optimistic side in terms of how quickly the ridge gains supremacy over the UK.

For what it's worth, my loose estimation of what that run would bring in terms of the CET sees it dip into the low 18s by Monday but then remain quite steady through to the following Friday, after which time it rises steadily to sit in the low-mid 19s as of 22nd.

I've not got time to do a detailed estimate from the 00z, but on the face of it, I imagine it would see the CET down into the high 17s by the middle of next week, after which time it would waver around that sort of level until starting a clearer rising trend for at least a few days from 22nd (based on where the pattern looks headed as of run's end). 

As much as the longer-term heat potential fits to the teleconnections, it's really the indications for next week of a brisk flow off the Atlantic bringing tropical maritime airmasses that may yet allow 2018 to secure the highest overall summer mean temperature; very mild nights can offset near or below-average daytime temperatures. If we had cool nights next week, it would take an exceptionally hot run of weather to bring the CET back up to 18.2*C+.

The 06z GFS actually manages above-average maximums throughout next week to go with the very mild nights, but it kept the low pressure systems further north than the 00z GFS or ECM runs, so some scepticism has to be had. Let's see if the 12z runs lend further support... or take it away.

Great post there James.

Thanks - very informative as well.

I wasn’t brave with my guess but I haven’t given up believing this summer has more records to break.  So it’s cast me a line of hope that the race to the top isn’t dead in the water!  

.... and the output is getting better by the run!  

Look out 1976!  2018 is ‘hot’ on your heels!  

 Met Office Hadley        19.8c.     Anomaly   3.8c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                      20.8c      Anomaly   0.8c

Netweather                   20.71c    Anomaly   4.52c

Cheadle Hulme            19.6c       Anomaly    3.44c

Darwen                       19.2c       Anomaly    2.72c

Hexam                        18.4c       Anomaly    3.04c

Mansfield Woodhouse 20.3c     Anomaly    3.87c

Peasedown St John 20.48c  Anomaly  2.16c

Treviskey Redruth 17.8c. Anomaly 1.28c.

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations 19.80c.           

Amazing result for the end of the whole of the first week of this month.

I fully agree with above comments regarding the informative quality of this post.

Interesting that July's high CET was underpinned by a very high CET max with a +5C anomaly and a CET min with only a +1.2 anomaly. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Dry-regime temperature contrast.

The intense solar heating during July was not offset so much by replacement of sensible with latent heat as would be the case with wet antecedent conditions or consistently humid air- June's weather definitely played a part in this. With ongoing dry conditions in the south, high maxima will again be possible, as in the second half of August 1995 and again 1983. Dry air could again lead to more moderate night time lows. However, SSTs must be rising quickly and that could impact on humidity here in the far south.

Thanks for the appreciation everyone .

After three much cooler runs, which really sent the CET estimates tumbling (well down into the 17s as of 22nd!), the 12z has performed another major turnaround, with the estimated CET bottoming out at around 18*C 15th-16th (worth noting that this is after a cooler weekend than ECM predicts) and then climbing all the way up to around 19*C as of 21st, before a dip on the final day of the run as it suddenly turns much cooler.

ECM's 12z is pretty similar to GFS' with respect to the timing of a significant warm-up, though it doesn't raise temperatures quite so far.

Seeing some high overnight minimums from both models- in line with the potential higher SSTs hence humidity link that Bertwhistle pointed out. 

Extremely uncertain times, but this evening's runs are the most agreeable with each other that we've seen for some time. Even GEM has produced a very warm run this evening.

Cheers James - excellent info there. I went for 18.3C anything over that I'll be pleased.

I retain the view ( though with only modest confidence) that 2018 will surpass 1976 summer CET. This fits with my 18.42 August prediction.  I see the models have swung back this way for the moment. A long way for August 2018, with its “snakes and ladders” character, I dare say. 

I do like that metaphor WI; probably should sum up much of the MOD too. What a great place to live for weather!