The Weather Outlook

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28 July 2018 09:28:38

ECM 0z has temperatures in the London area reaching 80F again by Thursday and then climbing back into the 30's. Could be very hot in the south next weekend.

2 Aug 28C

3 Aug 29C

4 Aug 31C

5 Aug 31.5C

6 Aug 32.5C

As has been noted elsewhere, by the 6th we have 21-22C uppers across the south east. So you would think the 2m temperatures above are somewhat understated. You could probably add 2-3C on top. So if the 0z was to verify we could be challenging 35C again in just over a week.

This summer has a way to go yet I think in terms of delivering hot conditions. The next few days are just a temporary blip and a welcome bit of relief for those of who don't like the furnace conditions.

Tim A
28 July 2018 10:34:36
Unusual in summer but Scatsa in Shetland is currently 21c, one of the warmest places in the country at 11am.
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

doctormog
28 July 2018 10:58:46

Unusual in summer but Scatsa in Shetland is currently 21c, one of the warmest places in the country at 11am.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

I wonder if Lerwick could reach the magic figure of 20°C today? If it did remarkably it would be the second time this month 

The last time it breached 20°C was in 2009.


richardabdn
28 July 2018 11:36:25

 

"Rain and cooler weather are on the way in the coming days."

Then no doubt, that will be it for our summer as any further build of high pressure is in the unreliable time frame of the model output just now.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

It feels as though summer was over here by mid-July. Second half of the month has been terrible. Hasn't reached 1020mb at all during the second half of July, there's been only four dry days and one day that has managed 10 hours sunshine.

August looks like starting off on a typically mediocre note. The lack of high temperatures in August over the past decade has been astonishing. It hasn't hit 24C since 2007 which is unprecedented. No sign of that ridiculous drought coming to an end any time soon. Coming week looks to be unsettled with average temperatures and average sunshine at best so just typical of what the month has brought over the past few years.


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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 11:41:50

 

It feels as though summer was over here by mid-July. Second half of the month has been terrible. Hasn't reached 1020mb at all during the second half of July, there's been only four dry days and one day that has managed 10 hours sunshine.

August looks like starting off on a typically mediocre note. The lack of high temperatures in August over the past decade has been astonishing. It hasn't hit 24C since 2007 which is unprecedented. No sign of that ridiculous drought coming to an end any time soon. Coming week looks to be unsettled with average temperatures and average sunshine at best so just typical of what the month has brought over the past few years.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

You are complaining about drought yet in the very next sentence complain about it being 'unsettled'. You're 'aving a larf, aren't you?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

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springsunshine
28 July 2018 18:54:58

ECM 0z has temperatures in the London area reaching 80F again by Thursday and then climbing back into the 30's. Could be very hot in the south next weekend.

2 Aug 28C

3 Aug 29C

4 Aug 31C

5 Aug 31.5C

6 Aug 32.5C

As has been noted elsewhere, by the 6th we have 21-22C uppers across the south east. So you would think the 2m temperatures above are somewhat understated. You could probably add 2-3C on top. So if the 0z was to verify we could be challenging 35C again in just over a week.

This summer has a way to go yet I think in terms of delivering hot conditions. The next few days are just a temporary blip and a welcome bit of relief for those of who don't like the furnace conditions.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

That's exactly what the models are showing,this is just a very temporary return to average summer conditions before we are back in the oven,however ive a gut feeling when the heat breaks down next time that could be it.Whatever happens summer 2018 will go down in weather history as one of the best.

Gray-Wolf
28 July 2018 19:15:22

In the past we only had the one option to cater for the Jet pattern/Stuck weather we have been experiencing. These days we have two, the original and the mangled Jet via low Arctic ice.

If it's the old one then it will flounder and the Atlantic will find its way back, if its the new type then the Jet position will keep on trying to get back where it has been ( like the period of washout summers and the position of the 'trough' feeding in all the systems?) until winter as the position of the jet slips south due to the season.

But then it's low solar and that means a propensity for blocking in the north of the Atlantic......so maybe quite a dry number of months/years still ahead? 


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28 July 2018 20:43:12

Today is the first day this month that the temperature has failed to reach 25C somewhere in the UK

Highest temperature was 24.0C at Weybourne

andy-manc
01 August 2018 13:54:41

The question is, how warm? Will it exceed the insane heat of 22C over the next few days up here? Exciting times 

LeedsLad123
01 August 2018 14:30:23

26 or 27C at a push here I would say. Nothing to get excited over.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 14:34:33
Currently 26c and clear blue skies in London. Expecting 32c/33c on Friday.
Home: London (NE)

Work: London (Central)

superteacher
01 August 2018 14:46:49

Currently 26c and clear blue skies in London. Expecting 32c/33c on Friday.

Originally Posted by: danm 

To be fair the only poor day down here was Sunday. Every other day still above average temps.

Think we will see 35c next Mon / Tue too.

 

danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 14:53:10

 

To be fair the only poor day down here was Sunday. Every other day still above average temps.

Think we will see 35c next Mon / Tue too.

 

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Yep agree. Saturday was still sunny and 23c, but very windy. Sunday was awful. Monday mainly dry, mostly cloudy. Yesterday was beautiful- sunny and 25c and today is glorious. 


Home: London (NE)

Work: London (Central)

richardabdn
01 August 2018 16:15:52

The question is, how warm? Will it exceed the insane heat of 22C over the next few days up here? Exciting times 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

I share the same derision. There’s absolutely no sign of a heatwave. It’s turned into another joke of a summer up here. Cloudy, wet and struggling to beat average.

I would say it’s odds on that it will be yet another August that fails to reach even a modest 24C here. That hasn’t been reached since 2007 - an astonishing run. In the days when we could still get heatwaves, the mean maximum for the first half of August 1975 was 24.5C and now not one day in 11 years can get within half a degree of that. Beyond pathetic

Between 1946 and 1997, Dyce recorded 26C in 12 Augusts - an average of once every 4.3 years. Since then it has been reached just once.

That statistic just says it all about the disaster summer has been reduced to here over the past 20 years


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2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

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roger63
01 August 2018 16:37:35

In the past we only had the one option to cater for the Jet pattern/Stuck weather we have been experiencing. These days we have two, the original and the mangled Jet via low Arctic ice.

If it's the old one then it will flounder and the Atlantic will find its way back, if its the new type then the Jet position will keep on trying to get back where it has been ( like the period of washout summers and the position of the 'trough' feeding in all the systems?) until winter as the position of the jet slips south due to the season.

But then it's low solar and that means a propensity for blocking in the north of the Atlantic......so maybe quite a dry number of months/years still ahead? 

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

Yes with the low solar there must be a chance that blocking could continue into  winter.Imagine instead of a  a three month heatwave we had  a three month freeze!

Arcus
01 August 2018 18:43:25
Of course dew points must be factored in as well - 25c with a 11c dp feels a lot different from 25c with a 20c dp.

I've experienced 40c+ days in Arizona many times when we go out there, but with low DPs it feels really quite pleasant. Conversely a 35c with 25c dp in KL is really quite oppressive.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

LeedsLad123
01 August 2018 19:16:19

Of course dew points must be factored in as well - 25c with a 11c dp feels a lot different from 25c with a 20c dp.

I've experienced 40c+ days in Arizona many times when we go out there, but with low DPs it feels really quite pleasant. Conversely a 35c with 25c dp in KL is really quite oppressive.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

True - even 18C with 16C dew points can feel fairly warm.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
andy-manc
02 August 2018 07:09:14

To me I'd say at this time of year 22C-24C is warm, 25C-27C is very warm and 28C+ is hot, 31C+ very hot. Early on in summer, you can knock a couple of degrees off those. The first 25C of the year has me sweating.

There's something about August that I don't really like. Always feels like a wind down which I suppose it is. The nights start drawing in, the sun is low in the sky in the evenings and more watery, you start feeling like you've had your best of the weather, the Christmas word pops up more. 

I think June is my favourite month here. It's early in summer, everything is fresh, people are happy, there's no end in sight, the days at long and I can remember quite a few hot and dry spells in June. I've had a lot of sunny holidays in June.

Rob K
02 August 2018 09:38:20
Forecast to touch 30C in London today. The sky this morning is a beautiful deep blue as well, and there's a fresh breeze. Perfect conditions, although I think it will get more cloudy and muggy later.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

LeedsLad123
02 August 2018 11:06:08

To me I'd say at this time of year 22C-24C is warm, 25C-27C is very warm and 28C+ is hot, 31C+ very hot. Early on in summer, you can knock a couple of degrees off those. The first 25C of the year has me sweating.

There's something about August that I don't really like. Always feels like a wind down which I suppose it is. The nights start drawing in, the sun is low in the sky in the evenings and more watery, you start feeling like you've had your best of the weather, the Christmas word pops up more. 

I think June is my favourite month here. It's early in summer, everything is fresh, people are happy, there's no end in sight, the days at long and I can remember quite a few hot and dry spells in June. I've had a lot of sunny holidays in June.

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 


Conversely, I don't really like June, and my dislike for it is reflected in the averages - out of all months from May to September, June is the dullest in percentage terms. It always feels like despite the long days of June, the weather usually doesn't allow you to enjoy it fully so it's kind of wasted - this year being a big exception. It feels like June has the most wasted potential given the very long days. Plus, we are more prone to low cloud in June. We are now in the warmest period of the year on average so in a typical year we should be having our best weather right around now.

I suppose I'm biased though because my birthday is in August, so I have many happy childhood memories of spending warm, sunny birthdays outdoors, and it's nice having your birthday during the summer holidays. It was 31C on my birthday in 1995. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
xioni2
02 August 2018 11:58:51

Forecast to touch 30C in London today. The sky this morning is a beautiful deep blue as well, and there's a fresh breeze. Perfect conditions, although I think it will get more cloudy and muggy later.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It really is a gorgeous day and pretty much perfect for me. 

Very similar to late June. 

andy-manc
02 August 2018 12:13:12


Conversely, I don't really like June, and my dislike for it is reflected in the averages - out of all months from May to September, June is the dullest in percentage terms. It always feels like despite the long days of June, the weather usually doesn't allow you to enjoy it fully so it's kind of wasted - this year being a big exception. It feels like June has the most wasted potential given the very long days. Plus, we are more prone to low cloud in June. We are now in the warmest period of the year on average so in a typical year we should be having our best weather right around now.

I suppose I'm biased though because my birthday is in August, so I have many happy childhood memories of spending warm, sunny birthdays outdoors, and it's nice having your birthday during the summer holidays. It was 31C on my birthday in 1995. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Well it's probably one of the dullest months here then too. I just feel like we have had good Junes recently but haven't checked the stats!

My birthday is in August too and I have a lot of hot memories but I've always felt like summer is winding down after my birthday so that makes me feel worse in a way. I know that once my birthday has passed, we are nearing shops full of halloween stuff!

Saint Snow
02 August 2018 12:15:09


Conversely, I don't really like June,

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 

FWIW, April is by far my least favourite month.

Sad that winter's over (whether I'm mourning the passing of a rare snowy one, or, more commonly, facing the depressing reality that another winter's passed without any decent wintry period); the weather is a bland nothingness - any cold spell isn't cold enough, any warm spell isn't warm enough; it's still 2 or 3 months away from high summer.

 

Anyway, another day of near-permacloud here in Manc. I'm giving up on hopes of a beautiful, prolonged easterly flow now.

 


Martin

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A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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severnside
02 August 2018 12:48:45

Horrible permacloud here in Glo'shire too. I had a feeling when the weather broke down last Saturday if summer will return with blue skies and sunshine, doesn't have to be blazing hot, but lovely blue skies please. Originally the models/forecasts were showing a quick return to summer conditions, although not terrible by any means , its not back to where we were.

will see what happens in the next few weeks, hopefully not the usual dull cool Augusts of late.

 

Ally Pally Snowman
02 August 2018 12:53:34

Gin clear sky here in the east . Nearest WS Stansted AP currently at 27c 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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