Maybe they know there are hundreds of weather geeks all over the forums hanging on their every adjustment! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I hope so. I think you mentioned earlier that last month's adjustment was 0.3C. If that happens again this month then a CET of at least 19.0C is looking shaky.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Yes it was adjusted 0.3c down in June, although it doesn’t usually change by that much. Let’s hope it was a one-off!  Hadley doesn’t do provisional figures to more than 1 decimal point though, so it could actually be 19.34 rounded down!  In which case a downward adjustment of 0.3 would still put us above the magic figure. JUST!    

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 Are they never adjusted upwards?

Originally Posted by: Col 

Are they never adjusted upwards?

Originally Posted by: Col 

I believe they are sometimes.

You would like to think it was possible, especially so if one notably cooler station in isolation is skewing the average of two warmer stations ?

Wishful thinking for me (CET prediction 19.45) but I guess it's plausible ?  

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Oh Yes!  In winter!   

Originally Posted by: Caz 

If one station (mentioning no names of course) happens to be noticeably cooler than the other two and there is no indication that there is anything wrong with the data, and it just happens to be in a significantly cooler area that month, then surely it should stand? An average is an average and just as relevant as if all 3 stations were very similar. However one being rather different to the other two and 'skewing' the data is always going to be a real possibility when you have only 3 contributing sites, why are there only 3, surely a few more would reduce this tendancy?

Originally Posted by: Col 

Steve was being wicked again!  

Of course the data will stand.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The idea is that stations in different parts of the country are used to give an average of temperatures across central England and it’s expected that each would be different.  If only Southern stations were used the figure would be higher but wouldn’t be an average of Central England Temperatures!

The three stations used are those representing the areas where data has been collected for many years to compile the Manley CET series, which continued as the Hadley series. It’s the longest running series in the world, which means we can compare current temperatures to those much further back in time.  If we add more stations, we wouldn’t have like for like comparisons. 

Well OK, but you suggested that if one station was quite a bit cooler than the other two the final figure could be 'adjusted'. So in what circumstances are such adjustments made?

I do realise that. However the readings that make up the series must have come from all over the area now enclosed by the 3 we currently have. So having more stations around the perimeter at least would surely smooth out any skewing.

Originally Posted by: Col 

No Col, I didn’t suggest one station would be adjusted at all!  I’m pretty sure that doesn’t happen.  s. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Apologies, my mistake. I got your posts mixed up.

Originally Posted by: Col 

Yes it was adjusted 0.3c down in June, although it doesn’t usually change by that much. Let’s hope it was a one-off!  Hadley doesn’t do provisional figures to more than 1 decimal point though, so it could actually be 19.34 rounded down!  In which case a downward adjustment of 0.3 would still put us above the magic figure. JUST!    

Originally Posted by: Caz 

They do in fact give the provisional data to two decimals. The figures so far this year are as follows: 5.38C, 3.13C, 4.92C, 9.75C, 13.48C, 16.48C and 19.34C (to 30th Jul).

So as it happens Caz we are currently at 19.34C.

The final figures are 5.26C, 2.93C, 4.93C, 9.84C, 13.25C and 16.10C. 

So 4 downward adjustments and 2 upward adjustments. So it is not always downward, although upward adjustments are usually quite small. I have seen downward adjustments as high as 0.5C.

I think we will have a downward adjustment this month but it is likely to be quite small.

Remember the provisional figure on the front page always contains one more minimum than maximum until the final day of the month so is not a true mean. The figure to two decimals that I have posted above should be a true mean to the 30th.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

They do in fact give the provisional data to two decimals. The figures so far this year are as follows: 5.38C, 3.13C, 4.92C, 9.75C, 13.48C, 16.48C and 19.34C (to 30th Jul).

So as it happens Caz we are currently at 19.34C.

The final figures are 5.26C, 2.93C, 4.93C, 9.84C, 13.25C and 16.10C. 

So 4 downward adjustments and 2 upward adjustments. So it is not always downward, although upward adjustments are usually quite small. I have seen downward adjustments as high as 0.5C.

I think we will have a downward adjustment this month but it is likely to be quite small.

Remember the provisional figure on the front page always contains one more minimum than maximum until the final day of the month so is not a true mean. The figure to two decimals that I have posted above should be a true mean to the 30th.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW. 

Caz, Col...anything to get a cheap last minute ' leg up' 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

They do in fact give the provisional data to two decimals. The figures so far this year are as follows: 5.38C, 3.13C, 4.92C, 9.75C, 13.48C, 16.48C and 19.34C (to 30th Jul).

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

You should really stop talking about yourself Gavin

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

They do in fact give the provisional data to two decimals. The figures so far this year are as follows: 5.38C, 3.13C, 4.92C, 9.75C, 13.48C, 16.48C and 19.34C (to 30th Jul).

So as it happens Caz we are currently at 19.34C.

The final figures are 5.26C, 2.93C, 4.93C, 9.84C, 13.25C and 16.10C. 

So 4 downward adjustments and 2 upward adjustments. So it is not always downward, although upward adjustments are usually quite small. I have seen downward adjustments as high as 0.5C.

I think we will have a downward adjustment this month but it is likely to be quite small.

Remember the provisional figure on the front page always contains one more minimum than maximum until the final day of the month so is not a true mean. The figure to two decimals that I have posted above should be a true mean to the 30th.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

So here is my final CET figure for July. My calculations come out at exactly 19.20C. 

The fall in the CET today was 0.04C so that would imply, if my numbers are broadly accurate, that the provisional Hadley data will only be adjusted down by 0.1C when it is finalised. Lets see what number we get tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

So here is my final CET figure for July. My calculations come out at exactly 19.20C. 

The fall in the CET today was 0.04C so that would imply, if my numbers are broadly accurate, that the provisional Hadley data will only be adjusted down by 0.1C when it is finalised. Lets see what number we get tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

They do in fact give the provisional data to two decimals. The figures so far this year are as follows: 5.38C, 3.13C, 4.92C, 9.75C, 13.48C, 16.48C and 19.34C (to 30th Jul).

So as it happens Caz we are currently at 19.34C.

The final figures are 5.26C, 2.93C, 4.93C, 9.84C, 13.25C and 16.10C. 

So 4 downward adjustments and 2 upward adjustments. So it is not always downward, although upward adjustments are usually quite small. I have seen downward adjustments as high as 0.5C.

I think we will have a downward adjustment this month but it is likely to be quite small.

Remember the provisional figure on the front page always contains one more minimum than maximum until the final day of the month so is not a true mean. The figure to two decimals that I have posted above should be a true mean to the 30th.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Perhaps a little higher than we were all expecting then

If that happens it will come third in the CET July series behind 2006 and 1983. It would also be joint third with August 1995 in the all time list of only four months in the CET monthly series that have reached more than 19.0C. Really quite remarkable!

Such as shame then that the current output for August would suggest a return to more familiar temperatures in the CET area. Any chance now of summer 2018 getting into the 'Top Five' of the CET summer series is now looking more doubtful

Originally Posted by: golfingmad