Any chance now of summer 2018 getting into the 'Top Five' of the CET summer series is now looking more doubtful

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

So here is my final CET figure for July. My calculations come out at exactly 19.20C. 

The fall in the CET today was 0.04C so that would imply, if my numbers are broadly accurate, that the provisional Hadley data will only be adjusted down by 0.1C when it is finalised. Lets see what number we get tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

And we're confirmed at 19.1

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

From looking at CET tables we only need I think - 17.2C or over. Anyone is welcome to correct me on this.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

And we're confirmed at 19.1

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

19.13 to be precise, from here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

So congrats in order to Redmoons, who was closest by 0.01c!

Originally Posted by: The Professional 

Yay!  I knew we would (fibber).    

Well done Redmoons!  It was your month wasn’t it!  Red moon and all, although I didn’t get to see it as it was cloudy.  You had to win it.  

When is there a blue moon?  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I believe we need 18.2c to surpass 1976. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I believe we need 18.2c to surpass 1976. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I believe we need 18.2c to surpass 1976. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

It will be a tough ask, but then again it shouldn't be an easy task to equal or beat a summer like 1976!

There are just so many conflicting signals about how August may turn out.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

It will be a tough ask, but then again it shouldn't be an easy task to equal or beat a summer like 1976!

There are just so many conflicting signals about how August may turn out.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

  Yep!  If you think what a great summer we’ve had so far, it makes you realise just how special 1976 really was!  

Does someone have the CET figures for the top ten summers?  I’m really hoping we can at least get in the top five!  August aside, I’m pretty sure 2018 is the new record holder for the combined May, June, July CET!   

Originally Posted by: Caz 

'Top Ten' summers in the CET summer series:

1) 1976: 17.77C

2) 1826: 17.60

3) 1995: 17.37

4) 2003: 17.33

5) 2006: 17.23

6) 1846: 17.10

7) 1983: 17.07

8) 1947: 17.03

9) 1933: 17.00

10) 1911 & 1781: 16.97

So there is quite a big jump between second and third positions. Putting aside 1826 for a moment, 1976 really does stand out on its own!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Chhers Steve - Thanks. I only did the calculation at random. I'll now do it thoroughly.

The CETs for the summer of 1976 were as follows. These figures are from the Hadley Table.

June 17.0C July 18.7 August 17.6. Add those 3 together and it comes to 53.3. So we need to get to that at least.

So far this summer we have.

June 16.1 July 19.1. . Those added together come to 35.2.

So therefore that makes it 53.3 - 35.2 - which equals 18.1C

So we need to better 18.1C as you pointed out above.  That is quite a hard ask for August. It was the June that made it for 1976. Take 1995 for example - June was rubbish - but July and august of 1995 were incredible.

We had a pretty good June this year - but the cool nights in it made it come in 0.9C below 1976.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

That's a good way of doing it, as I think it means the calculations aren't thrown off by June being a day shorter than July and August. The precise mean CET for the summer will be (30*Jun_CET + 31*Jul_CET + 31*Aug_CET)/(30+31+31)

Originally Posted by: jhall 

That's a good way of doing it, as I think it means the calculations aren't thrown off by June being a day shorter than July and August. The precise mean CET for the summer will be (30*Jun_CET + 31*Jul_CET + 31*Aug_CET)/(30+31+31)

Originally Posted by: jhall 

  Now that confuses me!  (Doesn’t take a lot! )  Am I missing something? 

June always has 30 days while July and August always has 31 and the CET for any given month, is for that given month, regardless of how many days it has!  So the summer CET is June + July + August divided by 3. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Completely agree. The CET statistics are just weighted averages of the three months in question. The number of days in each month is irrelevant.

Unless, of course, I am going completely mad

Originally Posted by: golfingmad